The Economist (July 22)
“Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Not long ago it seemed that an American recession was inevitable.” Now, expectations are heady that this can be averted, but “the surge of hope is… unusual because the world economy is slowing down.” While “falling inflation is good news,” it remains “too early to hail a ‘soft landing.’”
Tags: Averted, Economists, Expectations, Hope, Inevitable, Inflation, Optimism, Recession, Slowing, Surge, U.S., World economy
Fortune (April 4)
“After the banking crisis, could the next domino be all those empty office buildings in your downtown? Investors and economists are sounding the alarm about the commercial real estate market, seeing trouble ahead with refinancing. This sector has been hit hard for years now with the shift to remote work bringing about rising vacancy rates and falling property values.”
Tags: Alarm, Banking crisis, Commercial real estate, Domino, Downtown, Economists, Empty, Investors, Market, Office buildings, Refinancing, Remote work, Sector, Trouble, Vacancy rates
Wall Street Journal (January 15)
“Despite signs that inflation has started to recede, economists still expect higher interest rates to push the U.S. economy into a recession in the coming year…. On average, business and academic economists polled by the Journal put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%, little changed from 63% in October’s survey.”
Tags: Academic, Business, Economists, Economy, Inflation, Interest rates, Recede, Recession, Survey, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (January 2)
Citing “red flags” like housing market decline, the spend down of pandemic savings, and tighter bank lending standards, “more than two-thirds of the economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Federal Reserve are betting the U.S. will have a recession in 2023. Two others are predicting a recession in 2024.”
Tags: 2023, Decline, Economists, Fed, Financial institutions, Housing market, Lending standards, Pandemic savings, Recession, Red flags, Tighter, U.S.
CNBC (November 13)
As large U.S. retailers report earnings, inventory levels will dominate the gaze of analysts and investors. Retailers including Walmart, Target and Gap “are trying to sell through a glut of extra merchandise piling up in store backrooms and warehouses…. Balancing inventory has taken on additional urgency, as economists warn of dwindling savings accounts, rising credit card debt and the risk of a recession.”
Tags: Analysts, Debt, Dominate, Earnings, Economists, Gap, Glut, Inventory, Investors, Merchandise, Retailers, Risk, Savings, Target, Urgency, Walmart, Warehouses
Wall Street Journal (November 1)
The European Union’s statistics agency released figures that surprised most economists. “Consumer prices were 10.7% higher in October than a year earlier.” This marks “the fastest rate of increase since records began in 1997, two years before the euro was launched,” while at the national level “Germany’s measure of inflation was the highest since December 1951.”
Tags: 10.7%, 1997, Consumer prices, Economists, EU, euro, Fastest, Germany, Highest, Increase, Inflation, October, Records, Statistics agency, Surprised
Forbes (October 18)
“Home builder confidence plunged for a tenth straight month in October as rising interest rates continued to weaken housing demand—prompting economists to warn an unexpected rise in new home sales last month may be short-lived and prices may be on the brink of collapse.”
Tags: Confidence, Economists, Home builder, Home sales, Housing demand, Interest rates, October, Plunged, Rising, Weaken
Washington Post (July 26)
“The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. A confusing one, too. Growth appears to be sputtering, home sales are tumbling and economists warn of a potential recession ahead. But consumers keep spending, businesses keep posting profits and the economy keeps adding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month.”
Tags: Awkward, Businesses, Caught, Confusing, Consumers, Economists, Economy, Growth, Home sales, Painful, Profits, Recession, Spending, Sputtering, U.S.
Fortune (April 24)
The U.S. may be experiencing “the hottest housing market ever recorded. Over the past 12 months, U.S. home prices are up a staggering 19.2%.” Analysts expected the market “would lose some steam” in 2022, but that “hasn’t come to fruition—yet.” Instead, things have actually “gotten a bit hotter, with housing inventory on Zillow down 52% from pre-pandemic levels.” All of this leaves “a growing chorus of economists speculating that if home price growth doesn’t abate soon, the housing market could eventually overheat. Or worse: We could wind up in another full-fledged housing bubble.”
Tags: Analysts, Bubble, Economists, Home prices, Hotter, Housing market, Inventory, Overheat, Staggering, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (August 23)
The Government of Japan “is already on the hook to pay out nearly $10 trillion to its creditors.” This may appear *an impossibly large sum to rustle up” when annual tax collections amount to “less than $600 billion.” But today’s “economists talk more about the risk of issuing too little debt” and the U.S. may soon follow Japan’s lead. “Congress is debating trillions of dollars more in proposed spending that would push America’s borrowing toward levels policy makers in Tokyo have long embraced.”
Tags: $10 trillion, Borrowing, Congress, Creditors, Debt, Economists, Government, Japan, Risk, Spending, Tax collections, U.S.
