Washington Post (July 20)
We may be living in a “Goldilocks economy,” but it “has an end date.” Last year, the investors who “thought stagflation was here to stay were wrong, and they’ll be wrong again if they count on Goldilocks sticking around. Growth and inflation will line up sooner or later, and it’s the growth data that provides a better signal for the trajectory of the economy.”
Tags: End date, Goldilocks economy, Growth, Inflation, Investors, Last year, Signal, Stagflation, Trajectory, Wrong
Fortune (July 19)
“Over just a few months, ChatGPT went from correctly answering a simple math problem 98% of the time to just 2%.” This doesn’t necessarily show later versions are inferior as they might perform better on other tasks. The study which uncovered this does prove the existence of “wild fluctuations—called drift—in the technology’s ability to perform certain tasks.” Drift may arise from the rather “unpredictable effects of changes in one part of the model on others.”
Tags: 2%, 98%, Changes, ChatGPT, Drift, Fluctuations, Inferior, Model, Problem, Simple math, Study, Tasks, Technology, Unpredictable
Reuters (July 19)
“The TOPIX is up 20% this year and trading near a multi-decade high. Some of the drivers are profound. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is asking companies whose shares trade below book value to disclose plans to enhance their market worth, spurring hopes of share buybacks. And the welcome return of inflation could prompt Japanese companies to invest more and pay higher wages, which would in turn prop up consumer spending.”
Tags: Book value, Buybacks, Drivers, Enhance, High, Inflation, Invest, Japanese companies, Market worth, Shares, Topix, TSE, Wages
Institutional Investor (July 18)
“The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for emerging market equities is 15x, compared to 27x for those in developed markets and 34x for those in the U.S.” At just above 10x, “China is trading at a significant discount,” but investors can also easily “steer clear of China.” Other emerging market opportunities “worth considering” include Korea, Brazil, Malaysia, Hungary, Thailand, Mexico, and much of Latin America where P/E ratios range from 10x to 25x.
Tags: Brazil, China, Cyclically adjusted, Developed markets, Discount, Emerging markets, Equities, Hungary, Investors, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, P/E ratio, Thailand
Investment Week (July 17)
“Chinese growth in the second quarter of 2023 reached just 0.8%, down from a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 2.2% in March.” Last quarter’s “underwhelming growth” is likely to increase “the chances of further government intervention into the economy, following the People’s Bank of China’s move to cut interest rates last month.” It may also “stoke expectations of further government efforts to stimulate the economy to ensure the 5% growth target is reached for the year.”
Tags: Target
Wall Street Journal (July 15)
“China became the largest auto exporter in the world in the first quarter, yet the economy is ailing by many measures.” Its “economy might look good on paper, but it feels like a recession” and “many say conditions in world’s No. 2 economy are grim.”
Tags: Ailing, Auto exporter, China, Conditions, Economy, Grim, Q1, Recession, World
Marketwatch (July 14)
“Only 9% of all existing mortgages in the U.S. were taken out with a rate of above 6%,” with a majority of mortgages at rates below 4%. As a result, “the supply of new homes has been severely constrained by this imbalance…. New listings — a measure of how many sellers were putting up their homes for sale — were down 27% in early July versus a year ago.”
Tags: 4%, 6%, 9%, Constrained, Existing mortgages, Homes, Imbalance, New listings, Sale, Sellers, Supply, U.S.
Bloomberg (July 12)
Itochu’s unconventional “tough love worked.” A decade after banning overtime after 8:00 PM, profit per employee has increased fivefold. “What also changed, to the surprise of Itochu’s management, is that more female employees took maternity leave, had kids and came back to work.” This raises the question, “could similar changes help East Asia’s flagging birthrate?”
Tags: 8:00 PM, Banning, Birthrate, East Asia, Employees, Female, Itochu, Kids, Management, Maternity leave, Overtime, Profit, Unconventional
Washington Post (July 12)
Toyota could “upend the EV business even as that business is itself upending the wider autos industry…. Think about what a breakthrough along the lines of Toyota’s claims would mean: A battery that can power a vehicle for 745 miles on a single charge, recharge in 10 minutes or less and is far less prone to overheating and fire. In other words, all the current hang-ups about EVs — range, refueling time, safety — disappear.”
Tags: 10 minutes, 745 miles, Autos, Battery, Breakthrough, EVs, Hang-ups, Industry, Power, Range, Recharge, Refueling time, Safety, Single charge, Toyota, Upend
New York Times (July 11)
“A deal to ensure that data from Meta, Google and scores of other companies can continue flowing between the United States and the European Union was completed on Monday, after the digital transfer of personal information between the two jurisdictions had been thrown into doubt because of privacy concerns.” It may ultimately prove a temporary patch, but the E.U.-U.S. Data Privacy Framework marks “the final step in a yearslong process,” resolving “a dispute about American intelligence agencies’ ability to gain access to data about European Union residents.” Guard rails will now allow some data collection, but the subjects will be able to object and challenge the collection.
Tags: Collection, Data, Deal, Digital transfer, Dispute, E.U.-U.S. Data Privacy Framework, Google, Guard rails, Intelligence agencies, Jurisdictions, Meta, Object, Personal information, Privacy
