Washington Post (May 14)
Plastic production is estimated to create roughly 5% “of all greenhouse gas emissions… more than all shipping or the entire airline industry.” But that estimate only “accounts for gases released when companies drill for oil and gas, transport it to refineries, turn it into plastic and mold it into products.” It ignores factors such as “how microplastics in the ocean and soil disrupt the natural cycles that pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and cool the planet.” Though “scientists have long known that making plastic warms the planet,” plastic may ultimately “be heating the Earth even more than we realized.”
Tags: 5%, Airline industry, Atmosphere, CO2, Disrupt, Drill, Gas, GHG emissions, Microplastics, Mold, Natural cycles, Ocean, Oil, Plastic, Production, Products, Refineries, Scientists, Shipping, Soil, Transport
Wall Street Journal (May 13)
“Economist Burton Malkiel might have called the stock market ‘a random walk,’ but investors could at least use earnings guidance by companies as road signs. Now they are largely walking blind.” With on-again, off-again tariffs, “nobody knows what the economy will look like in a few months’ time.” Some companies are leaning heavily on assumptions. “Others, such as General Motors, PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble, have lowered targets, while Volkswagen excluded tariffs from its outlook. United Airlines, creatively, offered one scenario for a stable environment and another for a recession.” Other companies have simply thrown in the towel. “Ford, Jeep-owner Stellantis, Delta Air Lines, and UPS took another route, scrapping their 2025 guidance altogether.”
Tags: Assumptions, Blind, Delta Air Lines, Earnings guidance, Economist, Economy, Ford, GM, Investors, Malkiel, Outlook, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Random walk, Recession, Scenario, Stable, Stellantis, Stock market, Targets, Tariffs, United Airlines, Volkswagen
The Times (May 13)
“The United States is expected to lose $12.5 billion in international travel spending by the end of the year.” According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) “reports of tourists being stopped at the border, visa detentions, a tariff war waged by the Trump administration and a higher exchange rate” are all factors in what they estimate will reduce 2025 spending by foreign tourists in the U.S. to $169 billion, “down 7 per cent from $181 billion last year and 22 per cent from the peak before the pandemic.”
Tags: $12.5 billion, $169 billion, 2025, Border, Exchange rate, International travel, Pandemic, Reduce, Spending, Tariff war, Tourists, Trump, U.S., Visa detentions, WTTC
Bloomberg (May 12)
“Xi Jinping’s decision to stand his ground against Donald Trump could hardly have gone any better for the Chinese leader…. The Trump administration’s retreat from sky-high tariffs wouldn’t have occurred if China hadn’t responded so forcefully, not only with retaliatory duties but also export controls and other steps.”
Tags: China, Decision, Duties, Export controls, Forcefully, Leader, Responded, Retaliatory, Retreat, Sky-high tariffs, Trump, U.S., Xi
Barron’s (May 12)
“The Nasdaq Composite entered a new bull market on Monday as the stock market surged after the U.S. and China agreed to ease back tariffs for 90 days. The tech-heavy index rallied 4.4%, closing more than 20% above its April 8 low to exit the bear market that began on April 4.” That wasn’t the only good news. “The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,161 points, or 2.8%, closing more than 10% above its April 8 low to exit a technical correction. The S&P 500 rallied 3.3%.”
Tags: Bear market, Bull market, China, Dow Jones, Ease, Nasdaq, Rallied, S&P 500, Stocks, Surged, Tariffs, Tech-heavy, Technical correction, U.S.
South China Morning Post (May 9)
“Hong Kong must wake up to the dangers of US port and shipping threats “ While the world obsesses about Donald Trump’s tariffs, “a quieter but potentially more lasting confrontation is taking shape that could remake global trade infrastructure.” The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) recently “concluded an investigation into China’s shipbuilding and maritime sectors” and “its impact on the global trade architecture could be just as profound. If Hong Kong is “to remain a serious player on the international stage, we must respond with urgency, clarity and conviction” to measures that could include “per-voyage service fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-controlled vessels calling at US ports, as well as proposed tariffs on Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes and other key port equipment” while requiring that LNG carriers be US-built, “phasing out Chinese-made ships from the trade.”
Tags: China, Confrontation, Dangers, Global trade, Hong Kong, Infrastructure, Maritime, Per-voyage service fees, Port, Ship-to-shore cranes, Shipbuilding, Shipping threats, Tariffs, Trade Representative, Trump, U.S.
Financial Times (May 9)
“China’s exports grew sharply in April despite Donald Trump’s ‘liberation’ day tariffs on shipments to the US, strengthening Beijing’s hand ahead of crucial trade negotiations due to start this weekend.” Chinese companies were able to divert “trade flows to south-east Asia, Europe and other destinations following the imposition of prohibitively high tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two largest economies.” Though year on year exports to the U.S. dropped by 21% in April, China’s overall global exports increased 8.1%.”
Tags: April, Beijing, China, Divert, Europe, Exports, Liberation day, Shipments, South-east Asia, Tariffs, Trade negotiations, Trump, U.S.
Chicago Booth Review (May 8)
The United States “will miss having reliable data.” The U.S. government “has recently taken steps to pare its infrastructure for economic data collection and analysis, including shuttering the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee and the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee.” Based on a March poll, economists ”expressed broad concern about how eroding the government’s data-collection resources might affect the quality of American economic information—and the decisions based on it.” There responses suggested “that less reliable statistics won’t just be a problem for policymakers.”
Tags: Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee, Data collection, Decisions. Statistics, Eroding, Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee, Government, Infrastructure, Pare, Policymakers, Quality, Reliable, U.S.
Freight Waves (May 8)
“Despite rampant fears, America’s economy looks fundamentally solid.” Q1 results were not as bad as the hype. For example, “Q1 saw consumer spending rise 1.8% on top of Q4’s 4% quarterly growth, which was the highest such growth since Q1 2023.” Private domestic investment rose by nearly 22%. Moreover, April brought “shockingly robust” results for the U.S. labor market, which “added 177,000 nonfarm jobs… blowing past consensus for a gain of 138,000 and topping even Wall Street’s highest estimate of 171,000.”
Tags: Estimate
Wall Street Journal (May 7)
“Just as other countries need U.S. help against China, the reverse is also true.” President Trump himself, however, stands “in the way” of constructing such a “new trading system…. He simply doesn’t make much distinction between China and allies: They’re all ‘ripping us off.’” The President’s “willingness to hit friendly nations with tariffs, cozy up to Russia and threaten allies like Denmark and Canada has deeply undermined allies’ trust. With the U.S. closing its market, others are more reluctant than ever to push China away.“
Tags: Allies, Canada, China, Denmark, Friendly nations, Market, Reluctant, Tariffs, Threaten, Trading system, Trump, Trust, U.S., Undermined
