LA Times (August 23)
“The real threat to the U.S. economy Friday wasn’t Powell,” the Federal Reserve Chairman. “It was Trump’s trade policies and public outbursts. Having righted itself by the end of Powell’s speech, the Dow dropped sharply immediately after the president’s Friday tirade. As of this writing, it was down 455 points.”
Washington Post (August 2)
“China’s state-driven economic model has created many problems. Monetary policy isn’t one of them.” On the heels of the Fed’s rate cut, the ECB “looks poised to follow suit in September” and “the temptation is high for other central banks to fall in line.” But often they’re “canceling out each other’s efforts,” which is one reason the dollar didn’t fall with the latest rate cut. “Developed nations play out what is a zero-sum game.” In the process, they’re “using up the ammunition they have available to support their economies in the event of a downturn.” In contrast, the PBOC has avoided playing the rate cut game and “China’s 10-year government bond yield is relatively unchanged since the end of 2018.”
Tags: Canceling out, China Economic model, Developed nations, Dollar, Downturn, ECB, Fed, Monetary policy, PBOC, Rate cut, Temptation, Zero-sum game
Bloomberg (May 7)
“The conventional wisdom that the Fed’s next move would be down and the trade spat with China would end just got dealt a one-two punch…. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against calls for a near-term rate cut and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to ratchet up tariffs on imported Chinese goods.”
Tags: China, Conventional, Fed, Powell, Tariffs, Trade spat, Trump, U.S.
Reuters (March 25)
“Downbeat data from the US and Europe, combined with a cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, frightened investors last week. The first inversion in the US bond yield curve since 2007 also heightened concerns, by raising fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy.”
Wall Street Journal (August 23)
“The Fed has been able to slowly and predictably raise interest rates this year because the economy has performed largely in line with its expectations, but Wednesday’s minutes show how trade uncertainties loom large for U.S. businesses and Fed officials.”
Tags: Businesses, Economy, Expectations, Fed, Interest rates, Trade uncertainties, U.S.
CNBC (May 29)
“Political uncertainty in Italy has unhinged world markets, raising the specter of a euro crisis that could ripple across the global economy and even force the Federal Reserve to slow its rate-hiking plans.” While odds appear low that Italy will opt out of the single currency bloc, “internal chaos and a new election could make for a rocky summer for markets and even put a dent in European economic growth.”
Tags: Chaos, Currency, Economy, Election, Euro crisis, Fed, Growth, Italy, Markets, Political uncertainty, Rate hike, Unhinged
US News & World Report (February 27)
“New Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a message Tuesday that wasn’t quite what Wall Street had expected: The U.S. economy is doing well, maybe even better than he thought late last year.”
Tags: Economy, Fed, Powell, U.S., Wall Street
New York Times (February 6)
Investors believe “policies to stoke growth are going to work so well that they will overheat the economy, and force the Federal Reserve to try to slow things down by raising interest rates faster than expected. Sometimes you can have too much of a good thing. Don’t forget what set off the plunge on Friday: better-than-expected job growth numbers.”
Tags: Economy, Fed, Growth, Interest rates, Investors, Job growth, Overheat
Financial Times (March 14)
The Japanese stock market resembles “the ghost ship Mary Celeste.” Strewn around the decks are signs that the ship should be hopping with activity: the Topix index at a 14-month high, identifiable value stocks in abundance, a comfortably-positioned yen, fresh legalisation of casinos in the bag and a run of record share buybacks…. And yet there is silence.” Volumes have been low during the last three weeks and “overseas investors have been net sellers…with up to Y78bn leaving the index.” This suggests little wind remains in the Abenomics sails and, quite possibly, that traders are cautious ahead of developments from the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. But it could also mean that overseas investors have written “Japan off as a credible, reform-minded play on global growth and domestic reflation.”
Tags: Abenomics, Buybacks, Casinos, Fed, Investors, Japan, Mary Celeste, Reflation, Topix, Trump Growth, Value stocks, Volumes, Yen
Financial Times (July 26)
“There is a welcome sense among the world’s policymakers—at least, those outside the UK—that life is returning to the pre-EU referendum normal. The tasks of the Fed and the BoJ are not easy, particularly for the latter. But at least the challenges and the risks involved are looking a great deal more familiar.”
Tags: BOJ, Brexit, Challenges, EU, Fed, Policymakers, Referendum, Risks, UK
