The Wall Street Journal (November 28, 2013)
“Investors are piling into bets against the yen.” Based on data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), “wagers that the Japanese currency will slide against the U.S. dollar have surged to the highest amount this year and are within striking distance of levels not seen since 2007.” With the Fed poised to taper and the Bank of Japan set to maintain and possibly expand its already aggressive monetary easing program, some expect the exchange rate to move to 110 yen versus the dollar.
Tags: Bank of Japan, CFTC, Currency, Dollar, Exchange rate, Fed, Investors, Monetary easing, Taper, U.S., Yen
Euromoney (October Issue)
“Rates will rise as the Fed begins tapering. “Short-term interest rates will rise to 3% over the next two to three years, with the 10-year and 30-year rate likely to reach the 6% range,” according to Mike Niedermeyer of Wells Fargo Asset Management. He adds, “I think people will be surprised by the relative performance of equities over fixed income. Past decisions have forced a correlation between fixed income and equities but we could now have a return to negative correlation between fixed income and equities.”
Tags: Correlation, Equities, Fed, Fixed income, Interest rates, Niedermeyer, Performance, Tapering, Wells Fargo
Los Angeles Times (October 28)
“Policymakers are clear about their bond-buying goal, but the Street isn’t listening.” Current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke stated publicly that quantitative easing would continue until unemployment falls to 6.5%. “If we generate 200,000 new jobs every month, tapering starts in November 2016. If we see an average of only 148,000 new jobs each month, we won’t ever see Fed tapering…. Tapering is still a long way off.”
Tags: Bernanke, Bond-buying, Fed, Jobs, Policymakers, Quantitative easing, Tapering, Unemployment, Wall Street
Financial Times (September 2)
Expectations of tapering by the Federal Reserve have “increased market volatility. And, as in past episodes of Fed tightening, emerging markets are at the centre of the turmoil…. No matter how gradual the tapering of QE, abrupt adjustments will occur. It is in the nature of financial markets to overreact and overshoot.”
Tags: Adjustments, Emerging markets, Expectations, Fed, Financial markets, Overreact, Quantitative easing, Tapering, Tightening, Volatility
Institutional Investor (August Issue)
Over the past decade, Brazil produced stellar returns. Internal strife and the looming tapering by the Federal Reserve are now, however, disrupting the long favorable investment environment. “Brazilian investors have not faced such uncertainty for many years. The country attracted investment because it appeared to be one of the most dynamic and politically stable emerging markets. The return of volatility will tax the ingenuity of Brazil’s money managers.”
Tags: Brazil, Dynamic, Emerging markets, Fed, Investment, Money manager, Returns, Stable, Tapering, Uncertainty, Volatility
The Economist (August 24)
Since the U.S. Federal Reserve intimated that it would begin tapering its quantitative easing program in 2013, “there has been a great sucking of funds from emerging markets. Currencies and shares have tumbled, from Brazil to Indonesia, but one country has been particularly badly hit.” India is looking less like “an economic miracle” and more like a country teetering on the verge of a full-blown crisis. “The rupee has tumbled by 13% in three months. The stockmarket is down by a quarter in dollar terms. Borrowing rates are at levels last seen after Lehman Brothers’ demise. Bank shares have sunk.”
Tags: Banks, Brazil, Crisis, Currencies, Emerging markets, Fed, India, Indonesia, Lehman Brothers, Miracle, Quantitative easing, Rupee, Shares, Stockmarket, Tapering, U.S.
Euromoney (August Issue)
According to economists, Indonesia’s economy may face a “double blow” from China and the U.S. “Indonesia is the emerging market most vulnerable to the consequences of the US Federal Reserve’s tapering of quantitative easing and to China’s economic slowdown.”
Tags: China, Economic slowdown, Emerging markets, Fed, Indonesia, Quantitative easing, Tapering, U.S., Vulnerable
Washington Post (June 20)
As the Federal Reserve moves closer to an eventual unwinding of its massive quantitative easing program, the dollar looks poised to gain, disadvantaging U.S. exports. “For investors around the world, the great unwinding has begun, with sharp swings in different world bond and stock markets as money is shifted in response to the likelihood of higher interest rates and possibly stronger economic growth in the U.S. Currency markets are moving too – and it may mean a further drag on U.S. exports that are already stuck in neutral.”As the Federal Reserve moves closer to an eventual unwinding of its massive quantitative easing program, the dollar looks poised to gain, disadvantaging U.S. exports. “For investors around the world, the great unwinding has begun, with sharp swings in different world bond and stock markets as money is shifted in response to the likelihood of higher interest rates and possibly stronger economic growth in the U.S. Currency markets are moving too – and it may mean a further drag on U.S. exports that are already stuck in neutral.”
Tags: Bonds, Currency markets, Exports, Fed, Quantitative easing, Stocks, Swings, U.S., Unwinding
Financial Times (October 8)
“The Federal Reserve’s new round of quantitative easing may stall the dollar’s long term appreciation but it will not reverse it.” The dollar is being driven higher by four fundamentals: 1). The growing U.S. economy 2). The safe-haven status of U.S. bond markets 3). The shale gas revolution reducing U.S. dependence on imported energy 4). The determination of other central bankers not to let their national currencies appreciate. QE3 merely “presents headwinds to the dollar’s favourable fundamentals.”
Tags: Central bankers, Dollar, Economy, Fed, QE3, Safe haven, Shale gas, U.S.
Financial Times (September 21)
Concern is dampening initial celebration over the third quantitative easing (QE3) program, which was announced by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week. This monetary program is not a substitute for a proper fiscal solution. QE3 is neither a “free lunch,” nor without risk. Still, “Mr Bernanke has shown commendable bravery in compensating for Congress’s inaction. But his aggressive policy stance will not work forever. US politicians would be foolish not to use wisely the time the Fed has bought them.”
Tags: Bernanke, Congress, Fed, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, QE3, U.S.
