Bloomberg (August 27)
“Wall Street is beginning to sour on the outlook for crude next year, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley lowering price forecasts as global supplies increase, including potentially from OPEC+.” Both banks “now foresee global benchmark Brent averaging less than $80” and expect “prices trending lower over the 12 months.”
Tags: Benchmark, Brent, Crude, Forecasts, Global supplies, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, OPEC, Outlook, Sour, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (July 17)
“A clearer outlook on interest rates is giving bankers hope that dealmaking is emerging from a two-year slowdown.” Though up about 8% from a year ago, Q2 global M&A volumes “are still below those of the deal boom coming out of the pandemic,” with M&A activity “unlikely to kick into full gear until interest rates come down.”
Tags: 8%, Bankers, Boom, Clearer, Dealmaking, Emerging, Interest rates, M&A, Outlook, Pandemic, Q2, Slowdown
Washington Post (June 4)
“The European Central Bank on Thursday is almost certain to lower its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nearly five years. The move will come as the Federal Reserve remains on hold with plans to trim U.S. borrowing costs, amid inflation that is proving more stubborn than anticipated.” For the ECB, however, inflation appears to be “less of a problem than the weak growth outlook.”
Tags: Benchmark, Borrowing costs, ECB, Fed, Inflation, Interest rate, Lower, Outlook, Stubborn, U.S., Weak growth
Reuters (December 13)
“Conflict in the Middle East added geopolitical uncertainty to a luxury industry outlook already clouded by inflation, with shoppers in the U.S. and Europe tightening their purse strings while expectations for a strong post-pandemic rebound in China were derailed by a property crisis” On top of all that, Bergdorf Goodman and other high end retailers are already discounting adding to “concern that a lackluster Christmas could lead to inventory gluts – potentially dragging labels into a discounting spiral that would cheapen their image.”
Tags: Bergdorf Goodman, China, Christmas, Clouded, Discounting, Europe, Geopolitical uncertainty, Inflation, Inventory gluts, Lackluster, Luxury, Middle East, Outlook, Property crisis, Shoppers, Tightening, U.S.
New York Times (November 1)
“After shocks from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there’s little cushion if the fighting between Hamas and Israel becomes a regional conflict.” An escalation would cloud “the global economy’s outlook, threatening to dampen growth and reignite a rise in energy and food prices.” An escalation would also mark the first time the world has dealt with two simultaneous energy shocks.
Tags: Energy, Escalation, Fighting, Food, Global economy, Hamas, Invasion, Israel, Outlook, Pandemic, Regional conflict, Russia, Shocks, Ukraine
New York Times (September 1)
“The narrative about China has changed with stunning speed, from unstoppable juggernaut to pitiful, helpless giant.” This isn’t solely, however, the result of a recent turn of events. “China’s economic problems have been building for a long time.” The outlook for the next few years seems bleak, but China remains “a bona fide superpower, with enormous capacity to get its act together. Sooner or later it will probably get past the prejudices that are undermining its policy response.”
Tags: China, Economic problems, Helpless, Narrative, Outlook, Pitiful, Policy response, Superpower, Unstoppable juggernaut
Bloomberg (August 8)
“China’s trade plunged in July as slowing global demand clouded the outlook for exports, while domestic pressures weighed on imports in a hit to the economic recovery.” Exports (dollar denominated) fell 14.5% while imports decreased 12.4%. Both figures “were worse than what economists polled by Bloomberg had expected.”
Tags: Bloomberg, China, Domestic pressures, Economic recovery, Economists, Exports, Global demand, Imports, Outlook, Plunged, Trade
Investment Week (August 4)
“The outlook for the UK equity market feels particularly depressed and it is not hard to see why. Even after June’s better-than-expected inflation figures, core UK inflation remains high, which suggests higher interest rates for longer. Commentators are expecting that the base rate, which at 5.25% is at its highest for over 15 years, is likely to peak around 5.75%. This would bring even more pain for mortgage borrowers and greater government borrowing costs to an already faltering economy.”
Tags: 5.25%, 5.75%, Base rate, Borrowers, Depressed, Equity market, Inflation, Interest rates, Mortgage, Outlook, Pain, Peak, UK
Seeking Alpha (May 7)
“Berkshire Hathaway holds $130 billion in cash. That is over 18% of the company’s market cap. Clearly, management is not confident in the near term outlook of U.S. equity markets” in light of “the increasing preponderance of data that supports lower growth and lower earnings. The U.S. has certainly experienced an incredible period of growth and profits over the last 3 years. That phase is coming to an end.”
Tags: $130 billion, Berkshire Hathaway, Cash, Confident, Data, Earnings, Equity markets, Lower growth, Management, Market-cap, Near term, Outlook, Profits, U.S.
Reuters (April 12)
“The International Monetary Fund may have just hammered the final nail in the coffin of a complete economic rebound. With downside risks dominating its outlook, the IMF’s estimates dash any remaining hopes of a full recovery from recent years’ shocks.”
Tags: Dash, Downside risks, Economic rebound, Estimates, Full recovery, IMF, Outlook, Shocks
