South China Morning Post (June 15)
“Japan is falling into a trap in defending its currency against the US dollar, like Thailand in 1996. Japan’s large forex reserves make the yen a juicy target, rather than deterring currency predators. Its fundamentals are weak and deteriorating, making the yen’s further decline inevitable.”
Tags: 1996. Forex reserves, Currency, Decline, Defending, Deteriorating, Dollar, Fundamentals, Japan, Predators, Target, Thailand, Trap, U.S., Weak, Yen
Wall Street Journal (June 14)
Even if the U.S./Iran deal holds, it will still “take months for the oil market to return to normal.” First the mines must be removed. Even then, insurers and oil shippers “are expected to remain cautious about traveling through the waterway. It would likely take even longer for the U.S. and other countries to replenish their depleted oil inventories, keeping prices elevated.”
Tags: Cautious, Deal, Depleted, Insurers, Iran, Mines, Normal, Oil inventories, Oil market, Oil shippers, Prices, Replenish, U.S., Waterway
MarketWatch (June 13)
Due to the difficulty of restricting all access by foreigners under “export-control restrictions issued by the U.S. government,” Anthropic has completely suspended access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, regardless of nationality. This unexpected twist “suggests that the biggest corporate developers may face even more roadblocks going forward.” The move could usher in more regulation “for political and geopolitical purposes” and drive “countries to develop their own AI models so that they’re not denied access to major private ones going forward.” Greater national urgency could be “good news for suppliers of AI infrastructure, which could see heightened demand for AI hardware and related products,” but that would also “make the market more competitive for big players like Anthropic and OpenAI that need to ramp up paid usage to solidify the economics of AI development.”
Tags: Access, AI models, Anthropic, Competitive, Developers, Export-control, Fable 5, Foreigners, Geopolitical, Hardware, Infrastructure, Mythos 5, Paid usage, Political, Regulation, Restrictions, Roadblocks, Suppliers, U.S.
Institutional Investor (June 11)
“De-dollarization doesn’t mean capital is leaving America.” Investment decisions are often deceptively labeled de-dollarization even though the capital remains in the U.S. and is simply “changing form, swapping fixed financial claims on dollars for ownership of assets that generate cash flow and reprice with inflation.” Sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors haven’t dumped dollars, “but increasingly avoid holding dollar claims. Bonds are giving way to utilities, pipelines, and logistics networks. Investors are moving away from returns locked in nominal dollars into assets whose income adjusts with inflation.”
Tags: Adjusts, Assets, Capital, Cash flow, Claims, De-Dollarization, Fixed financial claims, Income, Inflation, Investment decisions, Nominal dollars, Ownership, Reprice, Returns, Sovereign wealth funds, U.S.
The Guardian (June 11)
“Since the historic Nato summit in The Hague one year ago this month, European leaders have pledged massive increases in defence spending in the face of increasingly acute threats of Russian aggression. Yet the reality is that key west European governments – especially the UK, France and Italy – are not putting their money where their mouth is for fear of undermining lenders’ confidence in their national debt.”
Tags: Assistance, Bitter, Conflict, Europe, Grim, Incalculable, Invasion, Milestone, Perished, Prove, Putin, Russia, Success, Suffering, U.S., Ukraine, Waver, WWI
Barron’s (June 5)
“Markets have soared toward the rare air last breathed by investors in the mid-1980s, but the stalling tech rally is bringing stocks back down to Earth.” It was “a series of quarterly updates on Wednesday that punctured a hole in the AI trade that has powered markets higher since the end of March.” The “market’s angst” was compounded by “stubbornly high Treasury yields, the lack of an agreement on ending the U.S. war with Iran, and a near 10% gain for global crude prices since last Friday’s close.”
Tags: 1980s, AI trade, Angst, Crude, Investors, Iran, Markets, Punctured, Quarterly updates, Rare air, Soared, Stalling, Stocks, Tech rally, Treasury yields, U.S., War
New York Times (May 31)
China’s biotechnology sector passed a milestone. This year’s prestigious meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) features “a presentation of a clinical trial conducted only in China.” Typically, the headliners have “featured drug trials that were run mainly at American and European hospitals.” This milestone “reflects the dizzying growth of China’s biotechnology sector. In just a few years, it has transformed from a sleepy industry into a juggernaut rapidly inventing and testing cutting-edge medicines.”
Tags: ASCO, Biotechnology, China, Clinical trial, Cutting-edge medicines, Drug trials, Europe, Growth, Headliners, Inventing, Juggernaut, Milestone, Oncology, Prestigious, Testing, U.S.
MarketWatch (May 30)
“Rising gas prices and inflation are causing a majority of U.S. households to fall behind financially… and the longer the situation goes on, the more stress it will place on the economy.” According to Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, the U.S. expansion is supported by a fragile pillar formed by “Three A’s,” namely “Affluent consumers, AI investment and Asset appreciation.” This pillar “masks an important reality. A huge swath of middle-class and lower-income families with little or no savings in stocks have not benefited much from the bull market or the AI boom.”
Tags: Affluent consumers, AI boom, AI investment, Asset appreciation Savings, Bull market, Daco, Economist, Economy, Expansion, Fragile, Gas prices, Households, Inflation, Pillar, Stocks, Stress, Three A’s, U.S.
Reuters (May 28)
“Japan Inc’s fears of a breakup boom are understandable. There were a record 56 activist campaigns against Tokyo-listed companies last year, according to Barclays. The tally was more than all of Europe put together and second only to the United States.”
Tags: Activist campaigns, Barclays, Breakup boom, Companies, Europe, Fears, Japan Inc., Record, Tokyo-listed, U.S., Understandable
New York Times (May 24)
Americans may be blind to “the war-driven supply shock already roiling manufacturing in Asia” which is especially “disrupting manufacturing and retail goods in Japan and South Korea” due to disrupted naphtha supply. “Because it serves as the building block for so many chemical products, naphtha is often called the ‘flour’ or ‘rice’ of industry.” So when the Iran War essentially “choked off” Persian Gulf shipping lanes, “more than 80 percent of Japan’s traditional supply lines for finished naphtha products” were “abruptly severed.” By some accounts, Japan and South Korea are consequently “the countries most exposed to the current supply disruptions.”
Tags: Asia, Blind, Exposed, Iran war, Japan, Manufacturing, Naphtha, Persian Gulf, Retail goods, Roiling, Shipping lanes, Shock, South Korea, U.S.
