CNBC (October 6)
“The world is awash with $152 trillion dollars of debt, according to the IMF, an all-time high which sits at more than double the balance at the start of this century.” In 2002, debt represented 200% of global GDP. At the end of 2015, this figure had risen to 225% and “signifies the extent to which increases in borrowing have outpaced economic growth during the period.”
Tags: Borrowing, Debt, Economic growth, GDP, IMF
Institutional Investor (September 19)
“A sense of dissonance” is overcoming global markets, according to the Bank for International Settlements. “Falling bond yields are normally associated with subdued growth…yet stock markets around the world have rallied even as corporate profitability has lagged.” Furthermore, the ten-year yield on many major sovereigns is “running well below the nominal rate of growth in gross domestic product, breaking a 65-year pattern in which the two have tracked each other closely.”
Tags: Bank for International Settlements, Bond yields, Dissonance, GDP, Global markets, Growth, Profitability, Sovereigns, Stock markets
The Guardian (July 29)
“It is a race to take charge of the world’s largest city—a metropolis with a population more than half the size of the United Kingdom and with a GDP greater than all but 10 countries.” But the Tokyo Governor’s race is probing new lows with “mud slinging and misogyny,” as well as “events that some say highlights the worst of Japan’s male-dominated politics.”
Tags: GDP, Governor, Japan, Male dominated, Metropolis, Mud slinging, Politics, Population, Tokyo, UK
The Economist (June 11)
Like Japan, South Korea is also facing a major demographics challenge, especially if they can’t succeed in upping the percentage of working women. “With a fertility rate of around 1.2 babies per woman, South Korea’s labour force is set to shrink dramatically. If the country fails to make use of half its talent pool, stagnation looms. An OECD study estimated that if the labour-force participation rate for men and women was the same by 2030, GDP growth would increase by 0.9 percentage points annually. Since 2010 growth has fallen from 6.5% to 2.6%.”
Tags: Babies, Demographics, Fertility, GDP, Growth, Japan, South Korea, Stagnation, Working women
Washington Post (May 1)
“Countries usually don’t knowingly commit economic suicide, but in Britain, millions seem ready to give it a try.” If, on June 23, the United Kingdom votes to leave European Union, a “28-nation economic bloc with a population of 508 million and a gross domestic product of almost $17 trillion,” it would be nothing less than “an act of national insanity.”
Tags: Britain, Economic suicide, EU, GDP, June 23, National insanity, UK
The Economist (April 30)
Developed in the wake of the Great Depressions and World Wars, gross domestic product (GDP) was originally designed “to measure the economy’s capacity to produce. Since then, GDP has become a lodestar for policies to set taxes, fix unemployment and manage inflation.” The metric can be inaccurate and is often overstretched. More robust benchmarks must be developed and this will require “a revolution in national statistical agencies as bold as the one that created GDP in the first place”.
Tags: Benchmarks, Economy, GDP, Great Depressions, Inflation, National statistical agencies, Revolution, Taxes, Unemployment, World Wars
Bloomberg (March 30)
“India has eclipsed China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy with gross domestic product projected to expand 7.6 percent in the fiscal year through March.”
The Economist (March 26)
There is “a corrosive lack of competition” among big firms in the U.S. “The naughty secret of American firms is that life at home is much easier: their returns on equity are 40% higher in the United States than they are abroad. Aggregate domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP. America is meant to be a temple of free enterprise. It isn’t.”
Tags: Competition, Corrosive, Domestic profits, Free enterprise, GDP, ROE, U.S.
Bloomberg (February 23)
“For Chinese leaders, the need to prop up faltering GDP growth outweighs fears about a rapid buildup in debt.” New loans from banks were 70% higher in January than a year prior. “Debt now tops 230 percent of GDP and could reach as high as 300 percent of GDP if current trends continue…. Even the Bank for International Settlements, a body not known for hyperbole, has warned that Chinese debt is reaching levels that typically trigger financial crises.”
Wall Street Journal (February 12)
Focusing on employment and rising wages, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “the U.S. economy is in decent shape and would be even better if not for the blasted rest of the world.” Markets, on the other hand, “are looking at different signals that suggest the world economy continues to weaken.” For example, “global trade is no longer growing as rapidly as world GDP, which is the opposite of the historical pattern. Containers are piling up at the world’s ports.” Ms. Yellen may “turn out to be right” given market proclivity for volatility and overreaction.
Tags: Containers, Economy, Employment, Fed, GDP, Global trade, Markets, Overreaction, Signals, U.S., Volatility, Wages, Yellen
