Bloomberg (November 1)
“China should dethrone its GDP target.” While many expect the Government to lower its GDP target to around 6.5% in the coming five-year plan, it would be better to scrap the target altogether. “The government should do all it can to promote rapid sustainable growth— but now that China is a semicapitalist economy, what that number turns out to be is beyond official control.” Suggesting otherwise, ultimately undercuts Government’s authority with wasteful local investment and data fudging. “Scrapping the GDP target outright would be best.”
Tags: Authority, China, Data fudging, Economy, GDP, Government, Growth, Investment, Official control, Semicapitalist, Target, Waste
Bloomberg (October 26)
“Reality keeps beating BOJ’s inflation forecasts.” According to Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ranks last or next to last in the accuracy of its forecasts for inflation and GDP when compared to other major central banks. The Bank of Japan has had to lower its inflation estimates for all four years from 2014 and now looks poised to follow suit on Friday with its release of updated inflation forecasts.
The Economist (September 19)
“Corporate profits more than tripled in 1980-2013, rising from 7.6% of global GDP to 10%, of which Western companies captured more than two-thirds. The after-tax profits of American firms are at their highest level as a share of national income since 1929.” Yet a recent study suggests “the golden age of the Western corporation may be coming to an end.” The McKinsey Global Institute projects “that corporate profits may fall from 10% of global GDP to about 8% in a decade’s time.”
Institutional Investor (September 3)
“Is 3 percent economic growth a thing of the past?” In the U.S., “gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 3 percent a year since 1960, but only 2.1 percent since the global financial crisis ended in 2009.” Economists increasingly think that “sluggish labor force expansion and productivity may stymie the kind of U.S. economic growth seen in the second half of the 20th century.” Many now “expect growth of about 2 percent to prevail for the next decade.”
Tags: Economists, Expansion, GDP, Global financial crisis, Growth, Labor force, Productivity, Stymie, U.S.
Financial Times (August 20)
“Capital is cascading out of emerging markets as investors, companies and financial institutions lose confidence in developing countries… If the cycle cannot be arrested, the risk is that a growth slump in developing countries—which account for 52 per cent of global gross domestic product in purchasing power parity terms—could pull the wider world into recession.”
Tags: Capital, Confidence, Developing countries, Emerging markets, Financial institutions, GDP, Growth slump, Investors, Recession, Risk
Wall Street Journal (August 7)
In China, the Government is estimated to have spent more than 10% of GDP ($1.3 trillion) “since the market panic started in late June,” producing only questionable results. “The failed bailout reinforces the expectation that Beijing will attempt to manage the financial markets in the future. This moral hazard means the volatility will continue, along with the costs of future bailouts. The first lesson of investing, buyer beware, has yet to be learned in China.”
Tags: Bailouts, Beijing, China, Financial markets, GDP, Government, Moral hazard, Panic, Volatility
Financial Times (May 26)
Global cities now “drive the world’s economy. The 600 biggest cities account for more than 60 per cent of global gross domestic product. The top 20 are home to one-third of all large corporations, and almost half of their combined revenues. Tokyo leads the pack — in population size, economic punch and number of corporate headquarters — ahead of New York, London and Paris.”
Tags: Cities, Corporations, Economics, Economy, GDP, London, New York, Paris, Population, Revenues, Tokyo
Institutional Investor (May 5)
“The long-lasting oil price slump is reverberating through macroeconomic data points and this earnings season.” Oil and gas exploration companies are getting hammered. And “the impact of lower investment and employment in the energy sector was also reflected in disappointing first-quarter U.S. GDP data.”
Tags: Earnings, Employment, Energy, Exploration, GDP, Investment, Macroeconomic, Oil price, Reverberating, Slump, U.S.
The Economist (April 4)
“Poor land use in the world’s greatest cities carries a huge cost.” There isn’t much real shortage of land in even the most heavily populated areas. Instead poor regulations stifle efficient land use. “In the West End of London,” these regulations “inflate the price of office space by about 800%; in Milan and Paris the rules push up prices by around 300%.” But the effect on economic growth is even more profound. “Lifting all the barriers to urban growth in America could raise the country’s GDP by between 6.5% and 13.5%, or by about $1 trillion-2 trillion.”
Tags: Barriers, Cities, Economic growth, GDP, Land use, London, Milan, Paris, Regulations, Shortage, U.S., Urban growth
Bloomberg (March 30)
“In order to steer China off its current trajectory, leaders are going to have to tolerate a bigger hit to GDP. They must also quickly build a transfer mechanism to allow banks, state-run enterprises and entire municipalities to dispose of bad loans.” China’s total debt to GDP ratio “now exceeds America’s 269 percent and Germany’s 258 percent. Even more worrying: If the credit buildup continues at its current pace, that ratio will explode to 400 percent by 2018.”
