Bloomberg (June 10)
“Pity Europe’s banks. For years, they have been in retreat, losing business in their own back yards to Wall Street rivals. Now the battlefront is shifting – but what looks like an opportunity to gain ground may be just the opposite…. Shackled by sluggish economic growth at home and record-low interest rates that are crushing margins, European firms have been unable to compete with U.S. rivals in trading and capital markets. Those same dynamics look set to play out again in transaction banking,” which is set to displace fixed income as the largest revenue driver by 2020.
Tags: Banks, Battlefront, Capital markets, Economic growth, Europe, Fixed income, Interest rates, Margins, Retreat, Rivals, Trading, Transaction banking, U.S., Wall Street
Reuters (May 16)
“Years of heavy money printing by the BOJ have pushed down long-term interest rates near zero, adding to a squeeze on margins for Japan’s regional banks already suffering from a dwindling population and weak loan demand.”
Tags: BOJ, Dwindling population, Interest rates, Japan, Loan demand, Margins, Money supply, Regional banks
The Economist (April 13)
Though relatively new, Central Bank independence has become sweeping. “In a single generation billions of people around the world have grown used to low and stable inflation and to the idea that the interest rates on their bank deposits and mortgages are under control.” Increasingly, it looks like that independence may be a short-lived. Today, the success of central banks “is threatened by a confluence of populism, nationalism and economic forces that are making monetary policy political again.”
Tags: Bank deposits, Central banks, Independence, Inflation, Interest rates, Mortgages, Nationalism, Populism
Wall Street Journal (October 26)
The European Central Bank is now faced with “a dilemma as it edges toward higher interest rates just as the region’s economy slows and faces escalating risks, from international trade tensions to a European dispute over Italy’s budget.” For now, President Mario Draghi has no plans to change course as the ECB seeks to “phase out easy-money policies.”
Tags: Budget, Dilemma, Draghi, ECB, Economy, Interest rates, Italy, QE, Risks, Trade tensions
Wall Street Journal (August 23)
“The Fed has been able to slowly and predictably raise interest rates this year because the economy has performed largely in line with its expectations, but Wednesday’s minutes show how trade uncertainties loom large for U.S. businesses and Fed officials.”
Tags: Businesses, Economy, Expectations, Fed, Interest rates, Trade uncertainties, U.S.
The Guardian (August 9)
“The era of low interest rates will last for at least another 20 years, despite gently rising official borrowing costs in the coming years, one of the Bank of England’s leading policymakers has forecast.” Outgoing monetary policy committee (MPC) member Ian McCafferty said that “structural changes in the global economy meant UK borrowers and savers should get used to interest rates being “significantly” below the 5% average in the 10 years leading up to the financial crisis.”
Tags: BOE, Borrowing, Costs, Era, Financial Crisis, Global economy, Interest rates, Low, MPC, Structural changes, UK
The Economist (April 7)
“America’s leading manufacturer of electric vehicles is under pressure. Mr Musk is fighting battles on many fronts and they all exacerbate his main threat: a financial squeeze that could eventually push Tesla over the edge…. Rising interest rates, a wobbly share price and a continued inability to meet its own production goals would all conspire to make it harder for the firm to find capital. It does not help that General Motors, Volkswagen and other big rivals are making massive investments in EVs.”
Tags: Capital, EVs, GM, Interest rates, Manufacturer, Musk, Production goals, Share price, Tesla, U.S., Volkswagen
New York Times (February 6)
Investors believe “policies to stoke growth are going to work so well that they will overheat the economy, and force the Federal Reserve to try to slow things down by raising interest rates faster than expected. Sometimes you can have too much of a good thing. Don’t forget what set off the plunge on Friday: better-than-expected job growth numbers.”
Tags: Economy, Fed, Growth, Interest rates, Investors, Job growth, Overheat
Barron’s (January 29)
“Interest rates and volatility have been so low for so long that what was once abnormal is starting to look normal,” leading investment banks to adopt different approaches. Goldman has maintained its trading unit, “which lives or dies on volatility and which sealed Goldman’s reputation as the elite firm on Wall Street,” even though its revenue “has been reduced to crumbs.” In contrast, Morgan Stanley slashed the head count at its trading unit and has seen its market value surpass Goldman’s. But this could prove short-lived. “When trading conditions improve,” revenue from fixed income currency and commodities (FICC) “could bounce back quickly. No one else is as poised as Goldman to profit.”
Tags: Abnormal, FICC, Goldman, Head count, Interest rates, Investment banks, Morgan Stanley, Normal, Trading, Volatility, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (January 9)
“The S&P 500 inched higher Monday, extending this year’s run of records. Stocks have begun 2018 on an upbeat note, buoyed by investors’ optimism over the global economy and bets that central banks are unlikely to pressure markets by raising interest rates faster than expected.”
Tags: 2018, Central banks, Economy, Interest rates, Investors, Optimism, Records, S&P 500, Stocks, Upbeat
