Institutional Investor (April 27)
With no major changes resulting at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), “it’s easy to overlook the seismic shifts going on just beneath the surface that will impact policy and markets for the remainder of 2016.” The “astounding number of mixed signals and conflicting messages” emanating from Fed speakers of late is one clue to the divisions on the committee and the uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy.
Institutional Investor (April 23)
“Rate announcements by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will loom large this coming week as investors consider the alternate reality of negative interest rates. Meanwhile, key economic indicators for onetime BRIC stars Russia and Brazil will arrive as each suffers from the weight of low oil prices and Brazil deals with domestic political intrigue surrounding the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff.”
Tags: Announcements, BOJ, Brazil, BRICS, Economic indicators, Fed, Impeachment, Negative interest, Oil, Rates, Rousseff, Russia
Institutional Investor (March 16)
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Not because anybody expects them to change interest rates at today’s meeting, but because everybody wants a glimpse of the future. “Concerns over volatility around the globe and fragility in some sectors, notably energy and industrials, suggest that the Fed may signal a moderation of the pace of tightening…. A slower path for rates seems plausible as core inflation appears to be manageable.”
Tags: Concerns, Core inflation, Energy, Fed, Fragility, Industrials, Interest rates, Moderation, Tightening, Volatility
Wall Street Journal (February 12)
Focusing on employment and rising wages, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “the U.S. economy is in decent shape and would be even better if not for the blasted rest of the world.” Markets, on the other hand, “are looking at different signals that suggest the world economy continues to weaken.” For example, “global trade is no longer growing as rapidly as world GDP, which is the opposite of the historical pattern. Containers are piling up at the world’s ports.” Ms. Yellen may “turn out to be right” given market proclivity for volatility and overreaction.
Tags: Containers, Economy, Employment, Fed, GDP, Global trade, Markets, Overreaction, Signals, U.S., Volatility, Wages, Yellen
Wall Street Journal (December 16)
“Financial markets took the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate ‘liftoff’ from near-zero in stride on Wednesday, broadly celebrating the 25 basis point increase in the federal-funds rate.” Given the late timing of the rise, however, this is very much unchartered territory. “The truth is that few people in financial markets are confident that anyone knows how this gradual return to monetary normalcy will turn out.”
Tags: Basis points, Fed, Federal-funds rate, Financial markets, Increase, Interest rates, Monetary, Near-zero, Normalcy
The Economist (December 12)
“Since interest rates hit rock-bottom in 2009, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly made optimistic forecasts about when they would start rising, only to delay the big day again and again.” The long-awaited hike now appears imminent. “On December 16th, when the Fed’s rate-setting committee meets, it seems all but certain to raise rates.”
Tags: Fed, Forecasts, Hike, Interest rates
Institutional Investor (November 12)
“So far all comments from ECB policymakers have raised dovish expectations for the December meeting, while in the U.S. the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin tightening. As a result, many analysts now see the macro setup for the dollar versus the euro as a catalyst to retest levels reached in the spring.”
Tags: Analysts, Catalyst, Dollar, Dovish, ECB, euro, Expectations, Fed, Policymakers, Tightening, U.S.
The Economist (September 12)
“The last time the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate, there was no one to tweet about it.” That was in June 2006 before Twitter’s IPO. “Nine years on, as the Fed readies itself to raise rates again, the public debate between hawks and doves is much noisier.” Even though markets are counting on least one rate rise this year, “it does not pay to go early: a rise now would needlessly risk America’s recovery.”
Institutional Investor (June 20)
The Fed and many others are underestimating “the true strength of the economy and the underlying structural evolution that is at play as a result of technological change…. As inflation firms in the months ahead, it will become abundantly clear that the Fed has had a window of opportunity to move on rates.”
Tags: Economy, Fed, Inflation, Rates, Structural evolution, Technological change
Institutional Investor (May 23)
“After a stronger than anticipated consumer inflation released in the U.S. on Friday, Janet Yellen dampened investors’ hopes that the Federal Reserve would delay a rate increase until next year.” Her underlying message was “that recent setbacks in economic data do not appear to represent a roadblock to growth despite labor conditions that remain fragile.”
