New York Times (February 12)
“The coronavirus outbreak in China has generated economic waves that are rocking global commodities markets and disrupting the supply networks that act as the backbone of the global economy…. Whether the downturn is a blip or a serious shock is as much a question of epidemiology as economics.”
Tags: China, Commodities markets, Coronavirus, Disrupting, Downturn, Economic waves, Epidemiology, Networks, Outbreak, Supply
Washington Post (August 17)
“American consumers are increasingly propping up the global economy,” but it’s unclear that they can keep playing this role or even continue propping up the U.S. economy. “A number of signs point to a possible downturn in the United States, economists are growing more skeptical that consumers will continue to open up their wallets as freely. A failure to do so could hasten the arrival of the first U.S. recession in a decade.
Tags: Consumers, Downturn, Economists, Failure, Global economy, Skeptical, U.S., Wallets
Washington Post (August 2)
“China’s state-driven economic model has created many problems. Monetary policy isn’t one of them.” On the heels of the Fed’s rate cut, the ECB “looks poised to follow suit in September” and “the temptation is high for other central banks to fall in line.” But often they’re “canceling out each other’s efforts,” which is one reason the dollar didn’t fall with the latest rate cut. “Developed nations play out what is a zero-sum game.” In the process, they’re “using up the ammunition they have available to support their economies in the event of a downturn.” In contrast, the PBOC has avoided playing the rate cut game and “China’s 10-year government bond yield is relatively unchanged since the end of 2018.”
Tags: Canceling out, China Economic model, Developed nations, Dollar, Downturn, ECB, Fed, Monetary policy, PBOC, Rate cut, Temptation, Zero-sum game
Nikkei (May 19)
“Japan’s economy” looks “on course for a major downturn,” based on a survey of about 1,300 economists. “Should China’s stimulus take hold, concerns about a worsening Japanese economy may be washed away. Yet Japan is constrained not only in its monetary policy, but also in its fiscal leeway considering the heavy government debt load,” not to mention the need for major employment and social security reforms.
Tags: China, Debt load, Downturn, Economists, Economy, Employment. Social security, Government, Japan, Monetary policy, Reforms, Stimulus
Investment Week (March 12)
“BBB corporate bonds, the lowest investment grade rating band in which a company’s debt rating can reside, have now grown to make up more than half of the entire global investment grade (IG) market.” When the next downturn strikes,”there could be a cascade of ‘fallen angels’, companies that are downgraded from IG to high yield (HY), swamping the smaller HY market and causing problems for investors as liquidity dries up and imperfect market clearing mechanisms struggle to cope.”
Tags: BBB, Bonds, Debt, Downgrade, Downturn, Fallen angels, High yield, Investment grade, Liquidity, Market clearing, Strikes
Institutional Investor (October 18)
Falling U.S. equity prices during the third quarter have “left investors asking whether the terrific run in U.S. equities since 2011 is over. Is the setback a buying opportunity or the beginning of a more serious downturn?” Overall, “we think there are enough positives to keep profits increasing at a high-single-digit rate over the next five to seven years.”
Tags: Buying opportunity, Downturn, Equity prices, Investors, Positives, Profits, Q3, Setback, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (September 15)
“The world’s second-largest economy is faring worse than previously thought, with government stimulus measures proving too short-lived to counter China’s sharp real-estate downturn or to prop up flagging factory output.” The slowdown in growth was highlighted by a slump in industrial production which fell to levels last seen during the financial crisis. “The falloff comes as Europe is stumbling and the U.S. recovery looks more moderate than expected, leaving the world in search of economic growth.”
Tags: China, Downturn, Economy, Europe, Factory output, Financial Crisis, Government, Growth, Industrial production, Real estate, Recovery, Stimulus, U.S.
Bloomberg (July 1)
Hong Kong has long been ambivalent about mainland China and now “faces perhaps its biggest challenge: China’s wobbly economy. A downturn on the mainland threatens to erode Hong Kong’s AAA credit rating, and to alienate the city’s population once and for all…. If it’s not careful, China may lose 7 million votes of confidence, too.”
Tags: Challenge, China, Confidence, Credit rating, Downturn, Economy, Hong Kong
Financial Times (June 24)
“It is too early to say, but with the credit intensity of China’s slowing economic growth surging back this year to levels last seen in the 2009 credit boom, a severe credit squeeze could precipitate a big drop in investment, accentuate the downturn in growth and lead to financial and banking sector instability.”
Tags: Banking, Boom, China, Credit, Downturn, Economic growth, Instability, Investment, Squeeze
