Wall Street Journal (January 10)
“Based on the growth of the money supply, Japan clearly fails to qualify as ultra-loose. On the contrary, it has been ultra-tight for decades.” Based on the quantity theory of money and Milton Friedman’s insights, “that tightness put Japan right where anyone… would expect: with ultra-low inflation.” That’s right, “Japan’s ultra-low inflation rates have been the result of ultra-tight, not ‘ultra-loose,’ monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s attraction to this fallacy has resulted in Japan’s lost decades.”
Tags: BOJ, Fallacy, Friedman, Growth, Japan, Lost decades, Monetary policy, Money supply, Rates, Ultra-loose, Ultra-low inflation, Ultra-tight
Bloomberg (July 27)
In unscripted remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned interest rates are at a “neutral level,” which is shorthand for “consistent with monetary policy being neither contractionary nor expansionary.” If rates really “are already at neutral. This would improve the chances of the Fed being able to soft-land the economy, thereby reducing inflation with limited damage to livelihoods and without triggering unsettling financial instability.”
Tags: Contractionary, Economy, Expansionary, Fed Chair, Inflation, Instability, Interest rates, Livelihoods, Monetary policy, Neutral level, Powell, Unscripted
Reuters (July 21)
“Worries over a global slowdown are casting a shadow over Asia’s recovery prospects with factory activity growth slowing in Japan and Australia, keeping pressure on policymakers to support their economies while tightening monetary policy to combat inflation.”
Tags: Asia, Australia, Factory activity, Global slowdown, Inflation, Japan, Monetary policy, Policymakers, Recovery, Slowing, Support, Tightening, Worries
Investment Week (July 14)
“For the first time in over a decade, listed stocks and bonds are positively correlated. Combined with geopolitical tensions, record inflation and monetary policy shifts, investors are having to look further afield to achieve returns.” That has some investors looking at alternatives as “an effective diversifier that can be worked into a full portfolio.”
Tags: Alternatives, Bonds, Decade, Diversifier, Geopolitical tensions, Inflation, Investors, Monetary policy, Positively correlated, Returns, Stocks
Financial Times (July 4)
“If the BoJ sticks to its guns while the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the yield divergence could spell a further collapse in the yen beyond the 24-year low. But if the BoJ moves to tweak its monetary policy, or if a global recession prompts a U-turn in US interest rates and a flight to safe havens, it could trigger an abrupt reversal.”
Tags: 24-year low, BOJ, Collapse, Divergence, Global recession, Interest rates, Japan, Monetary policy, Reversal, Safe havens, U.S.. Fed, Yen, Yield
Institutional Investor (December 14)
“Investors are proceeding with caution as central banks move to rein in inflation. Expectations of more aggressive monetary policy have prompted investors to adopt more defensive asset allocation strategies…. In addition to piling into cash, investors have also adopted more defensive positioning by overweighting healthcare stocks and underweighting assets that are exposed to interest rate hikes.”
Tags: Aggressive, Asset allocation, Cash, Caution, Central banks, Defensive, Expectations, Healthcare stocks, Inflation, Interest rate hikes, Investors, Monetary policy, Overweighting
New York Times (November 4)
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a tapering of stimulus programs, but he did not “lay the groundwork for higher rates.” That doesn’t mean “the era of near-zero rates will last anything close to as long as it did after the global financial crisis,” but if the current inflation surge “proves something other than temporary, Mr. Powell’s decision to stick to his guns” on interest rates “will loom as a missed moment to join other English-speaking countries in using monetary policy to try to stamp it out.”
Tags: Fed, Global financial crisis, Inflation, Interest, Monetary policy, Near-zero, Powell, Rates, Stimulus, Surge, Tapering
MarketWatch (July 13)
“U.S. stock indexes on Tuesday morning edged slightly lower from Monday’s record closes, as investors assessed a hotter-than-expected consumer inflation report for June, which suggests to some that the Federal Reserve may need to consider removing some of its monetary policy measures to avoid an overheated post-COVID economy.”
Tags: Consumer inflation, Economy, Fed, Investors, June, Monetary policy, Overheated, Post-Covid, Record closes, Stock, U.S.
Reuters (April 29)
“There’s an end to everything except, apparently, central bankers’ creativity. Virus-damaged economies will need lots of help to heal, and more downturns are inevitable in the future. The monetary-policy bigwigs will keep coming up with more new ways to stimulate growth.” The Fed and BoE may “eventually overcome their aversion to negative interest rates” and/or “copy Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda’s yield-curve control policy of targeting specific levels for 10-year government bond yields.”
Tags: BOE, BOJ, Creativity, Damaged, Downturns, Economies, Fed, Growth, Heal, Kuroda, Monetary policy, Negative interest, Virus, Yield curve
Investment Week (November 18)
The Fed’s “180-degree policy U-turn…from tightening to loosening interest rates” has “increased uncertainty about monetary policy.” Another factor exacerbating matters is “the unpredictable and escalating trade war between the US and China.” Combined, they have “resulted in a higher frequency of volatility spikes and some violent sector rotation.”
Tags: China, Fed, Interest rates, Loosening, Monetary policy, Tightening, Trade war, U-turn, U.S., Uncertainty, Unpredictable, Volatility
