Investment Week (November 18)
The Fed’s “180-degree policy U-turn…from tightening to loosening interest rates” has “increased uncertainty about monetary policy.” Another factor exacerbating matters is “the unpredictable and escalating trade war between the US and China.” Combined, they have “resulted in a higher frequency of volatility spikes and some violent sector rotation.”
Tags: China, Fed, Interest rates, Loosening, Monetary policy, Tightening, Trade war, U-turn, U.S., Uncertainty, Unpredictable, Volatility
Newsweek (May 13)
“China’s decision to raise tariffs on U.S. goods made its impact felt on Wall Street as stock markets began the week on a downbeat note. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell by more than 2 percent in early trading,” while the Nasdaq dropped even further. Market volatility “was directly linked to the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China…. The back-and-forth retaliation between the two superpowers wiped out the marginal gains stocks recorded at the end of last week.”
Tags: China, Dow Jones, Downbeat, Gains, Nasdaq, Retaliation, Stock market, Superpowers, Tariffs, Trade war, U.S., Volatility, Wall Street
Reuters (November 1)
Expect some Brexit volatility for the pound. “With less than five months until the marriage is due to end, the two sides have yet to finalise a divorce settlement and if none is made by the end of March,” the current consensus is that “sterling will fall to $1.20.” The same poll of economists predicted “the pound would bounce to $1.35 if a deal is made.”
Institutional Investor (April 4)
On February 5, after a placid 2017, “the VIX surged from the previous trading day’s close of 17.3 to 37.3…the largest daily percentage increase in the three-decade history of the index, more than doubling in one day.” Some investors have been overreacting to the detriment of performance when they should be simply tuning out the noise. “Volatility can create a risk: that we reduce our market exposure at the point of maximum psychological pain; in other words, we sell at the bottom…. Sometimes the best thing we can do is simply nothing.”
Tags: Bottom, Investors, Market exposure, Overreacting, Pain, Performance, Risk, Sell, VIX, Volatility
The Economist (February 10)
“America’s extraordinary economic gamble” is off to a rough start. “Fiscal policy is adding to demand even as the economy is running hot” and, seemingly as a result, volatility is back in a big way. “A long spell of calm, in which America’s stockmarket rose steadily without a big sell-off, ended abruptly this week.”
Tags: Calm, Demand, Economic gamble, Economy, Fiscal policy, Hot, Sell-off, Stockmarket, U.S., Volatility
Barron’s (January 29)
“Interest rates and volatility have been so low for so long that what was once abnormal is starting to look normal,” leading investment banks to adopt different approaches. Goldman has maintained its trading unit, “which lives or dies on volatility and which sealed Goldman’s reputation as the elite firm on Wall Street,” even though its revenue “has been reduced to crumbs.” In contrast, Morgan Stanley slashed the head count at its trading unit and has seen its market value surpass Goldman’s. But this could prove short-lived. “When trading conditions improve,” revenue from fixed income currency and commodities (FICC) “could bounce back quickly. No one else is as poised as Goldman to profit.”
Tags: Abnormal, FICC, Goldman, Head count, Interest rates, Investment banks, Morgan Stanley, Normal, Trading, Volatility, Wall Street
Institutional Investor (October 2)
The Securities Exchange Commission is conducting a pilot program to determine whether a wider tick range will help drive liquidity and research, while reducing volatility. “Proponents believe a wider spread–$0.05, instead of the current $0.01 on exchanges—will lead to more displayed liquidity and thus an easier trading regime.” Over the next two years, 400 stocks will trade at the widened tick, while 1,200 stocks will serve as a control and two other groups of 400 stocks will test the effects of other variations.
Institutional Investor (August 21)
Black swan events “will continue to jolt global markets. But when even the best of human forecasters struggle to predict with accuracy the outcomes of these events, how can pension plans, for example, effectively make decisions to better weather the volatility that follows.” Big data may hold the key. “Using big data to track media sentiment, volume, tone and correlation can help institutional investors understand the diffusion of ideas and outliers that can serve as clues for unexpected risk.”
Tags: Accuracy, Big Data, Black swan, Correlation, Diffusion, Forecasters, Global markets, Human, Jolt, Outcomes, Outliers, Pension plans, Sentiment, Unexpected risk, Volatility
Institutional Investor (March 16)
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Not because anybody expects them to change interest rates at today’s meeting, but because everybody wants a glimpse of the future. “Concerns over volatility around the globe and fragility in some sectors, notably energy and industrials, suggest that the Fed may signal a moderation of the pace of tightening…. A slower path for rates seems plausible as core inflation appears to be manageable.”
Tags: Concerns, Core inflation, Energy, Fed, Fragility, Industrials, Interest rates, Moderation, Tightening, Volatility
Wall Street Journal (February 12)
Focusing on employment and rising wages, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “the U.S. economy is in decent shape and would be even better if not for the blasted rest of the world.” Markets, on the other hand, “are looking at different signals that suggest the world economy continues to weaken.” For example, “global trade is no longer growing as rapidly as world GDP, which is the opposite of the historical pattern. Containers are piling up at the world’s ports.” Ms. Yellen may “turn out to be right” given market proclivity for volatility and overreaction.
Tags: Containers, Economy, Employment, Fed, GDP, Global trade, Markets, Overreaction, Signals, U.S., Volatility, Wages, Yellen
