The Economist (November 6)
“The return of Trumponomics excites markets but frightens the world. It may bring stronger growth, higher inflation and a global trade war.”
Tags: Excites, Frightens, Global trade war, Growth, Inflation, Markets, Return, Trumponomics, World
CNN (October 30)
“The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.” James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is among the “economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off” a soft landing. “That scenario, in which inflation is tamed without a recession” would mark “an exceptionally rare achievement.”
Tags: Bullard, Economists, Economy, Fed, Historic, Inflation, Officials, Rare, Recession, Remarkable, Soft landing, St. Louis, Tamed, U.S.
Bloomberg (October 21)
“The global economy is heading toward year end with unexpected tailwinds as slowing inflation clears a path for an unlikely soft landing. But while the economics side of the equation is looking up, political hurdles lie ahead.” The biggest hurdle may be the U.S. election. “The resilience of the world’s major economies is about to be tested” if Trump is elected and institutes his tariff program.
Tags: Economics, Election, Global economy, Inflation, Major economies, Political hurdles, Resilience, Soft landing, Tailwinds, Trump, U.S., Unexpected
Washington Post (October 10)
“By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is in good shape. Growth is strong. Unemployment is low. Inflation is back down. More important, many Americans are getting sizable pay raises, and middle-class wealth has surged to record levels.” And yet the lingering effects of inflation seem to have blinded many to the fact that “we are living through one of the best economic years of many people’s lifetimes.”
Tags: Best, Economy, Growth, Inflation, Lingering, Middle class, Pay raises, Record levels, Strong, Surged, U.S., Unemployment, Wealth
Financial Times (October 10)
“Germany is facing its first two-year recession since the early 2000s as the government downgraded its 2024 growth forecast for the eurozone’s largest economy.” Hurdles have included “soaring inflation, high interest rates and energy costs driven higher by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” along with longer term “structural problems, such as Germany’s dire skills shortage, years of under-investment in infrastructure and excessive red tape.”
Tags: Economy, Energy costs, eurozone, Germany, Growth forecast, Hurdles, Inflation, Infrastructure, Interest rates, Recession, Russia, Skills shortage, Structural problems, Ukraine, Under-investment
Bloomberg (October 7)
“The ‘no landing’ scenario–a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates–had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.” After “setting up for slowing growth,” traders are undergoing another “wrenching recalibration” on the heels of a “blowout” jobs report “showing the fastest job growth in six months, a surprising drop in US unemployment and higher wages.” Treasury yields surged and investors are “furiously reversing course on bets for a larger-than-normal half-point interest-rate reduction.”
Tags: Blowout, Bond market, Economy, Fed, Growing, Inflation, Interest rates, Jobs, No landing, Recalibration, Scenario, Traders, Treasury yields, U.S., Unemployment, Wages
Reuters (September 28)
“Treasury yields and the dollar fell while the Dow registered a record closing high on Friday as a subdued U.S. inflation report lifted expectations of an outsized interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting.” On top of that, “a global stock index also reached a record high, helped by China’s stimulus boost, and European shares posted an all-time high close.”
Tags: China, Dollar, Dow, Europe, Expectations, Fed, Global stock, High, Index, Inflation, Interest rate, Policy meeting, Record, Stimulus, U.S., Yields
The Economist (September 18)
“The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by half a percentage point, announced on September 18th, is momentous for two reasons. As the first cut by America’s central bank since it lifted rates to quell inflation, it marks the start of a monetary-easing cycle. It also represents a bet by the Fed that inflation will soon be yesterday’s problem and that action is needed to support the labour market.”
Tags: Action, Fed, Inflation, Interest rates, Labour market, Momentous, Monetary-easing cycle, U.S.
Reuters (September 13)
“U.S. consumer sentiment improved in September amid subsiding inflation, though Americans remained cautious ahead of the November presidential election,” according to the University of Michigan. Preliminary readings show “consumer sentiment came in at 69.0 this month, compared to a final reading of 67.9 in August” while expectations for one-year inflation “fell for the fourth straight month to 2.7%,” marking “the lowest reading since December 2020.”
Tags: Cautious, Consumer sentiment, Election, Expectations, Inflation, September, Subsiding, U.S., University of Michigan
Financial Times (September 10)
“Central bankers on both shores of the Atlantic are under pressure from many sides — political circles, financial markets, public opinion — to cut interest rates.” But the European Central Bank (ECB) faces distinctly different circumstances than the Fed or BoE. The ECB has already cut rates to 3.75 per cent, which “is already a solid 1.5 percentage points below” the Fed’s rate and inflation is less controlled. “The ECB has no room to cut rates.” It should “maintain a moderately restrictive stance on monetary policy to make further progress on inflation.”
Tags: 3.75%, BOE, Central bankers, ECB, Fed, Financial markets, Inflation, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Political, Pressure, Public opinion, Restrictive
