Bloomberg (November 2)
“The last time the Philippine peso neared 50 to the dollar, the global financial system was melting down and the central bank raised interest rates to defend it. This time, it has been driven by the president cursing his trading partners.”
Tags: Central bank, Dollar, Interest rates, Melt down, Peso, Philippines, President, Trading partners
New York Times (October 5)
The Brexit “reality is that Britain has a lot to lose in leaving the union, and that putting a two-year limit on the negotiations further weakens an already shaky hand.” Following Prime Minister May’s announcement of a timetable for withdrawal, “the prompt plunge of the British currency to a 31-year low against the dollar provided a far louder response than the misguided cheers of her fellow Conservative Party members.”
Wall Street Journal (July 28)
“Since the 15th century the world has had six unofficial reserve currencies, starting with the Portuguese real. On average they have maintained their leading position for 94 years. The dollar succeeded the British pound 96 years ago, and it has no serious rival in sight.” Today, nearly 90% of global trades involve dollars and, worldwide, nearly two thirds of foreign currency reserves are held in dollars.
Tags: Dollar, Global trades, Portugal, Pound, Real, Reserve currencies, UK
The Economist (July 2)
“It is now a week since voters narrowly opted for Brexit, and the country has seldom looked so wildly off the rails. The prime minister has handed in his notice. The leader of the opposition is struggling to survive a coup. The pound hit a 31-year low against the dollar and banks lost a third of their value, before stabilising. Meanwhile there is talk in Scotland and Northern Ireland of secession.”
Tags: Banks, Brexit, Dollar, Northern Ireland, Opposition, Pound, Prime minister, Scotland, Secession, UK, Voters
Bloomberg (March 17)
“Even with the dollar’s rally since 2014, U.S. manufacturing is benefiting from the world’s strongest rate of productivity, a flexible labor market, cheap energy and from having a big domestic market.” The lingering belief that it’s radically cheaper to move production to China is a misconception. “Labor costs adjusted for productivity in China are only 4 percent cheaper than in the U.S.”
Tags: China, Dollar, Energy, Flexible, Labor market, Manufacturing, Productivity, Rally, U.S.
Bloomberg (December 1)
Not everyone is in line with the consensus view that the yen will weaken to 126 per dollar by the end of 2016. Among the most bullish, Morgan Stanley “expects Japan’s currency to strengthen to 115 against the greenback.” Factors behind this forecast include the historic weakness of the yen, the need for Japanese pension funds to repatriate money, improvement in Japan’s economy and a general overestimation of the BOJ’s commitment to monetary easing.
Tags: Bullish, Consensus view, Dollar, Economy, Japan, Monetary easing, Morgan Stanley, Pension funds, Yen
Wall Street Journal (November 25)
In the U.S., “the pressure on corporate profits may last longer than expected.” Many have attributed the contraction in corporate profits to temporary trends, namely “the weakness in the commodities sector, which is ravaging profits at energy companies, and the strong dollar, which is putting pressure on multinationals.” Though reassuring, “the problem with those dismissals is that oil may not be done going down, and the dollar may not be done going up.”
Tags: Commodities, Contraction, Corporate profits, Dollar, Energy, Multinationals, Oil, Pressure, Trends, U.S.
Institutional Investor (November 12)
“So far all comments from ECB policymakers have raised dovish expectations for the December meeting, while in the U.S. the Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin tightening. As a result, many analysts now see the macro setup for the dollar versus the euro as a catalyst to retest levels reached in the spring.”
Tags: Analysts, Catalyst, Dollar, Dovish, ECB, euro, Expectations, Fed, Policymakers, Tightening, U.S.
The Economist (August 22)
“A resurgent dollar has hammered commodity prices: many have recently fallen below their levels of a decade ago.” There may be worse to come. “The real curse for producers is over-supply in almost all raw materials. Yet they continue to act as if they are blithely unaware of it. Capital is still pouring into holes in the ground, creating a hangover that may last at least a decade.”
Tags: Capital, Commodities, Dollar, Over-supply, Producers, Raw materials, Resurgent
Financial Times (April 27)
While Japanese companies benefit from currency gains on overseas sales, U.S. companies are feeling the heat. “A surge in the US dollar has already wiped more than $20bn from first quarter sales at the largest US companies, a sum larger than revenues generated by Intel, Caterpillar or Goldman Sachs in the first three months of the year.” The figure could potentially double as Q1 reporting in the U.S. was still near the halfway mark.
Tags: Caterpillar, Currency gains, Dollar, Goldman Sachs, Intel, Japan, Overseas sales, Q1, U.S.
