Reuters (September 16)
“The last thing the slowing world economy needs is a big and unexpected disruption in oil output.” The drone attacks “took out roughly half of Saudi Arabia’s crude output appear to fit that bill. But even fragile global growth can probably withstand this first cut.” However, if “sustained disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply–or anything that heightens the risk of them–will buoy crude. That will deliver the deepest cut to growth.”
Tags: Crude, Crude output, Disruption, Drone attacks, Economy, Fragile, Growth, Middle East, Oil, Output, Risk, Saudi Arabia, Supply, Unexpected
Wall Street Journal (August 21)
“Water crises are unfolding all across India, a product of population growth, modernization, climate change, mismanagement and the breakdown of traditional systems of distributing resources. India is running out of water in more places, in more different ways, putting more people at risk, than perhaps any other country.” Though it is “the 13th most water-stressed country in the world,” India has a population three times “the combined population of the other 16 countries facing extremely high water stress.”
Tags: Climate change, Crises, India, Mismanagement, Modernization, Population growth, Resources, Risk, Traditional
Wall Street Journal (February 26)
“Give some credit to President Trump.” He has broken “all convention, but it has created an opening to reduce the risk of nuclear war. The question as Mr. Trump prepares for his second summit with the North Korean is whether that mutual bonhomie can translate into tangible measures that actually reduce that risk. It hasn’t so far, notwithstanding Mr. Trump’s claims.”
Tags: Claims, Convention, North Korea, Nuclear war, Risk, Summit, Tangible measures, Trump
Reuters (December 18)
“British business has issued a stark warning to MPs that they risk plunging an ill-prepared economy into chaos unless they stop playing politics at Westminster…. As ministers agreed to a dramatic escalation of preparations for a no-deal Brexit, including putting 3,500 armed forces personnel on standby, the leaders of the UK’s five leading employers’ groups said the country was nowhere near ready.”
The Economist (December 8)
“Already at risk of unraveling,” the unsteady truce between China and the U.S. has just become more precarious. “Even before news of Ms Meng’s arrest, global stocks see-sawed as investors wondered if hostilities might resume.” For China, at least her arrest “looks like a political salvo. Huawei is a pillar of the Chinese economy—and Ms Meng is the founder’s daughter. The fate of the trade talks could hinge on her encounter with the law.”
Tags: Arrest, China, Hostilities, Huawei, Investors, Meng, Risk, Stocks, Trade, Truce, U.S., Unraveling, Unsteady
Bloomberg (December 3)
Trump and Xi gave “markets the most they could have expected,” which wasn’t that much. Still, they avoided the “risk of a serious downside (an angry confrontation and a meeting ending with recriminations and no agreement).” While some may see justification for “risk on” investing, it’s worth noting that this truce is only temporary, “in the longer term, all the risks remain in place.”
Tags: Confrontation, Downside, Markets, Recriminations, Risk, Temporary, Truce, Trump, Xi
Reuters (August 29)
“The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is becoming increasingly feasible in the eyes of investors who are hedging against the risk of the currency tanking if Britain is left isolated from the EU, its largest trading partner.” Bank of America Merrill Lynch has warned that central bank selling of more than 100 billion pounds in reserves “could be a major catalyst for a significant sterling downturn” should the UK leave the EU without a deal.
Tags: BAML, Brexit, Central bank, Currency, EU, Hedging, Investors, No-deal, Reserves, Risk, Sterling, Trading partner, UK
Institutional Investor (August 6)
“For the world of institutional investing, the topic of our time is none other than fees.” Most of the solutions being touted, such as 1-or-30, are anything but revolutionary. “Any magic is really just sleight-of-hand meant to distract us from realizing how low our expectations are for any meaningful improvement in the existing misaligned fee structures.” We must overcome this built-in bias and “expand the window of possible choices to include those that will be seen as utterly unthinkable by today’s standards.” For example, a “rent” system could be adopted in which “the allocator no longer pays fees to the manager for the use of its own capital and is assured of receiving the investment outcome it seeks (i.e., the negotiated rent). The manager gets the capital and potential revenue it needs to run its business.” Such a revolutionary move would place the risk directly where it belongs: on the asset manager.
Tags: 1-or-30, Allocator, Asset manager, Capital, Expectations, Fee structures, Investing, Outcome, Rent, Revenue, Revolutionary, Risk
Financial Times (June 26)
U.S. “intelligence agencies have for several years identified cyber threats as a bigger risk than terrorism.” Though huge, the threat is little understood. Such is “the opacity of cyber space that the risks of massive miscalculation resulting in catastrophic escalation” are “hair-raisingly high” and the “ultimate nightmare” is “that we might sleepwalk into a cyber-Armageddon, just as Europe’s political leaders had stumbled into the first world war.”
Tags: Cyber threats, Escalation, Europe, Intelligence, Miscalculation, Nightmare, Risk, Sleepwalk, Terrorism, U.S., WW1
Financial Times (April 11)
“For decades, Japan has struggled to remove barriers to the growth of technology start-ups,” but risk aversion and social pressure caused job seekers to focus on established companies. “That may be changing” as economic stagnation “threatens lifetime employment at big companies. More young people are joining start-ups or even going freelance to enjoy flexibility in their working life. Part-time or contract workers now account for about 40 per cent of Japan’s workforce.”
Tags: Barriers, Contract, Established, Freelance, Japan, Jobs, Lifetime employment, Part-time, Risk, Start-ups, Technology, Workforce
