Barron’s (April 5)
The global economy is in for a “crude awakening.” Even under the best (or least worst) scenario, the Iran “war will shave about a percentage point off global economic growth, taking it down to 2% this year. Growth forecasts for large, developed economies—Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom—were modest before the war at around 1%. If the conflict extends past June, GDP growth for these countries could evaporate, while inflation keeps rising.”
Tags: 2%, Conflict, Crude awakening, Developed economies, Economic growth, Forecasts, France, GDP, Germany, Global economy, Inflation, Iran war, Italy, Japan, Scenario, UK
Investing.com (April 4)
Goldman Sachs thinks “China appears better placed than most major economies to withstand the ongoing oil shock triggered by Middle East tensions, with structural advantages in its energy mix, supply diversification and strategic reserves helping cushion the impact.”
Tags: China, Economies, Energy mix, Goldman Sachs, Middle East tensions, Oil shock, Strategic reserves, Structural advantages, Supply diversification, Withstand
Financial Times (April 2)
“A record number of megadeals were agreed in the first quarter of the year as companies shrugged off war in the Middle East and a shakeout in the software sector to propel mergers and acquisitions to $1.2tn globally.”
Tags: Acquisitions, Companies, Megadeals, Mergers, Middle East, Q1, Record, Shakeout, Shrugged, Software sector, War
Wall Street Journal (April 2)
“There is something not at all right when the weightiest decisions of a democratic republic depend so much on the mood of one man.” Before Trump, “there were forms and traditions and processes, there were strictures, rules, the law, expectations, all of which would hem in the head of the executive branch.” Today, however, the “president’s mood” determines everything. “People have become habituated to this, tolerate it, factor it in. But of course when you factor it in you are enabling and continuing it.”
Tags: Decisions, Democratic republic, Enabling, Executive branch, Expectations, Habituated, Law, Mood, Processes, Rules, Strictures, Tolerate, Traditions, Trump, Weightiest
Investments and Pensions Europe (April 1)
“Dutch pension funds were net sellers of US assets last year, reallocating capital towards Europe, according to figures from regulator DNB. On balance, funds sold €30bn of US equities and bonds, while purchasing €23bn of European securities.”
Tags: €30bn, Assets, Bonds, Capital, Dutch, Equities, Europe, Net sellers, Pension funds, Reallocating, Regulator, Securities, U.S.
Institutional Investor (March 30)
“For years, the financial industry chased milliseconds. Today, the critical differentiator in financial markets isn’t just about being the fastest. Instead, it’s about mastering fidelity. Ensuring access to the best, most accurate data, which has become the non-negotiable standard.”
Tags: Access, Accurate data, Critical differentiator, Fastest, Fidelity., Financial industry, Markets, Milliseconds, Non-negotiable, Standard
The Guardian (March 30)
“The fifth week of Donald Trump’s illegal war on Iran has confirmed the absence of any overarching strategy…. No amount of contradictory social media posts from Mr Trump can negate the shortages felt across the world, from Asian factories to European diesel markets. The pain is likely to get worse. There is no sign of imminent US victory or Iranian collapse.” In the absence of “diplomacy or restraint, the economic shock will deepen and US soldiers may become embroiled in a quagmire.”
Tags: Quagmire
Reuters (March 29)
An “enduring disconnect between geopolitical turmoil and buoyant corporate and financial activity” remains. Despite concern with “extreme uncertainty caused by fighting in the Middle East…. Dealmakers have a trillion reasons to feel optimistic. That’s the rough dollar value of mergers and acquisitions announced worldwide since the start of the year, a level only bettered during the post-pandemic boom of 2021.”
Tags: Boom, Buoyant, Corporate, Dealmakers, Disconnect, Extreme uncertainty, Fighting, Financial, Geopolitical turmoil, M&A, Middle East, Optimistic
Wall Street Journal (March 27)
“Businesses that steer clear of politics like to think they’re safe in Hong Kong, but think again, comrade. A new government edict lets police demand computer, phone and email passwords without a warrant.”
Tags: Businesses, Computer, Edict, Email, Government, Hong Kong, Passwords, Phone, Police, Politics, Safe, Warrant
New York Times (March 26)
“For years, technology giants successfully fought off efforts by regulators, lawmakers and others to put limits on their social media businesses, some of the most popular apps on the planet.” Their “winning streak ended this week, first with a loss for Meta in New Mexico and then with the landmark decision on Wednesday in Los Angeles that found that Meta and YouTube had harmed a young user’s mental health.” So far, investors have largely shrugged off the news, but “some legal experts wonder if Big Tech is staring at a Big Tobacco moment.”
Tags: Big Tobacco
