New York Times (May 2)
“The recent performance of the stock market, which in April took its biggest monthly dive in two years, is hinting at economic trouble ahead, and is the latest complication in the Fed’s fight against inflation.”
Tags: April, Complication, Dive, Economic trouble, Fed, Fight, Inflation, Performance, Stock market
Bloomberg (April 18)
“The slower the Fed, the harder the landing.” Quick action while inflation expectations are “still well anchored” will minimize the “cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment.” Those costs will mushroom if the Fed “waits and allows inflation expectations to get out of hand.” A recession remains unlikely in 2022, but if there isn’t one “in the next couple years, it will only be worse.”
Tags: Anchored, Costs, Expectations, Fed, Inflation, Landing, Output, Quick action, Recession, Slower, Unemployment, Worse
Wall Street Journal (April 7)
“With inflation high and the job market tight… policy makers are inclined to reduce the Fed’s $9 trillion balance sheet at a much more rapid pace than they did during the quantitative-tightening round that began in October 2017, when inflation was much cooler and the unemployment rate was higher.” The resulting “quantitative-tightening tantrum could go on a lot longer than the taper tantrum did.”
Tags: 2017, Balance sheet, Fed, Inflation, Job market, Policy makers, Quantitative tightening, Tight, Unemployment
New York Times (March 18)
Financial markets took the Fed’s higher rates in stride. “The stock market rose, bond yields wavered and commodity prices moderated. But whether the economy can withstand rising rates during a period of geopolitical turmoil and a lingering pandemic is a question without an immediate answer.”
Tags: Bond yields, Commodity prices, Economy, Fed, Financial markets, Geopolitical turmoil, Pandemic, Rising rates, Stock market, Withstand
Wall Street Journal (March 15)
This week, the Fed meets “to address the worst inflation in 40 years amid new risks to economic growth.” The mess is “largely of the Fed’s own making. The central bank’s inflation target is 2% for personal-consumption expenditure inflation, and the rate in February was probably three times higher.” The Fed’s “historic exertions were needed” when Covid struck, but it continued them for “too long, even as the money supply exploded and clear signs of inflation began to appear.”
Tags: Central bank, Covid, Economic growth, Fed, Inflation, Inflation target, Mess, Money supply, Personal consumption, Risks
Washington Post (February 18)
“The U.S. economy has an inflation problem the likes of which haven’t been seen in 40 years, and the main policymakers in charge of keeping it in check — at the Federal Reserve — have been far too slow to even admit there is a problem, let alone to start addressing it. It is time for the Fed to get aggressive.”
Tags: Aggressive, Economy, Fed, Inflation, Policymakers, Problem, Slow, U.S.
Seeking Alpha (December 14)
“Given the latest CPI and PPI data, the fate for an accelerated taper appears to have been sealed and what is likely to be a much more hawkish tone out of the Fed.” In spite of this, “the equity market has lived in fantasyland over the past week, rallying off a massive drop in implied volatility.” Still, the realization is dawning “that the Fed is no longer the stock market’s friend.”
Tags: CPI, Equity market, Fantasyland, Fed, Hawkish, PPI, Rallying, Taper, Volatility
Barron’s (December 10)
As it attempts to address inflation without derailing the recovery (or worse), the Fed will be walking a tight rope. On the upside, “the banking system is now both better capitalized and less exposed to illiquidity risk than in the past.” Moreover, “both households and firms are in better shape to weather higher interest costs now than they were in 1981 or, indeed, other episodes of monetary tightening.”
Tags: Banking system, Capitalized, Derailing, Exposed, Fed, Firms, Households, Illiquidity, Inflation, Interest costs, Recovery, Risk
Washington Post (November 23)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been nominated for another four-year term. If again confirmed, he will face “a daunting challenge: At a time when employment remains several million jobs below pre-pandemic levels, inflation is taking off at a rate not seen for 30 years.” And the blame from all “across the political spectrum” will be pinned on him. “Not since Paul Volcker accepted President Jimmy Carter’s nomination to the position amid double-digit inflation in mid-1979 has any central banker confronted a more difficult situation.”
Tags: Blame, Carter, Challenge, Confirmed, Daunting, Employment, Fed, Inflation, Nominated, Powell, Pre-pandemic, Volcker
The Economist (November 6)
“Global bond markets are wakening from a long slumber.” The Fed “will wind down its vast bond-buying programme” just as bond investors react to higher inflation. “Across a group of 35 economies, five-year bond yields have risen by an average of 0.65 percentage points in the past three months.”
Tags: Bond markets, Economies, Fed, Global, Higher inflation, Investors, Wind down, Yields
