The Economist (January 23)
Oil price slumps usually do “the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.” This time, however, the abrupt 75% drop in the price of oil is testing the old paradigm. “Producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.”
Tags: Benefits, Consumer confidence, Costs, Growth, Markets, Oil, Price slumps, Producers, Suffering, Ultra cheap
Bloomberg (January 20)
“China’s slowing growth has crushed shipping rates to such an extent that hiring a 1,100-foot merchant vessel would set you back less than the price of renting a Ferrari for a day.” Since August, daily rates for Capesize ships have plummeted 92% to $1,563, while a Ferrari F40 runs $5,597. That figure excludes fuel costs of roughly $4,000. Even included, however, the total $5,563 daily cost for the vessel still remains cheaper than renting the Ferrari.
Tags: Capesize ships, China, Ferrari, Fuel costs, Growth, Shipping rates
Financial Times (November 4)
It now “seems likely, and indeed desirable, that the BoJ will be forced to expand its programme of quantitative easing before too long.” The Bank of Japan revised both its inflation and growth forecasts downward, and extended its horizon for achieving its inflation target. “Disappointing outcomes do not mean that the BoJ’s combination of an inflation target and using QE has failed, but that it needs to be more enthusiastically pursued. The BoJ can and should contemplate going further.”
Tags: Bank of Japan, Forecasts, Growth, Inflation, Outcomes, Quantitative easing
Bloomberg (November 1)
“China should dethrone its GDP target.” While many expect the Government to lower its GDP target to around 6.5% in the coming five-year plan, it would be better to scrap the target altogether. “The government should do all it can to promote rapid sustainable growth— but now that China is a semicapitalist economy, what that number turns out to be is beyond official control.” Suggesting otherwise, ultimately undercuts Government’s authority with wasteful local investment and data fudging. “Scrapping the GDP target outright would be best.”
Tags: Authority, China, Data fudging, Economy, GDP, Government, Growth, Investment, Official control, Semicapitalist, Target, Waste
The Economist (September 26)
“With China’s “decades-old investment boom fast dwindling, it needs consumption to kick in as a new driver of growth.” Fortunately, rebalancing is progressing with retail sales increasing “by 10.5% in real terms this year, well ahead of economic growth.” Amid industrial downturn, “China’s consumer boom is real. But do not count on it to lift the global economy.” This great consumer rebalancing is even less likely to benefit “commodity-exporting countries whose fortunes have hinged on China.”
Tags: China, Commodities, Consumption, Growth, Industrial downturn, Investment, Rebalancing, Retail sales
Institutional Investor (September 18)
“Ebullient growth isn’t likely any time soon, but with no recession in sight, equity bears are likely to remain in hibernation.” The 6.5 year bull market in the U.S. still has further to run.
Institutional Investor (September 3)
“Is 3 percent economic growth a thing of the past?” In the U.S., “gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 3 percent a year since 1960, but only 2.1 percent since the global financial crisis ended in 2009.” Economists increasingly think that “sluggish labor force expansion and productivity may stymie the kind of U.S. economic growth seen in the second half of the 20th century.” Many now “expect growth of about 2 percent to prevail for the next decade.”
Tags: Economists, Expansion, GDP, Global financial crisis, Growth, Labor force, Productivity, Stymie, U.S.
New York Times (August 30)
“Economic fundamentals today are no different than they were before the market took a walk on the wild side.” The U.S. economy is “growing at 2.5 percent. At that modest pace, the United States cannot be of much help if other economies falter. But it can rebound from a market swoon, at least for now.”
Tags: Economy, Fundamentals, Growth, Market, Market swoon, Modest, Pace, Rebound, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (June 3)
“Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push to restart productivity growth and unlock value in Japanese companies is toppling the shibboleths of Japan Inc.” His corporate governance reforms seem to mark “a turning point. Japan’s corporate chieftains must realize that as Japan’s population ages, it will draw down savings. That means companies need to attract foreign capital and go abroad to seek new markets. Both require global best practices of corporate governance.”
Tags: Abe, Foreign capital, Global best practices, Governance, Growth, Japan, Markets, Population, Productivity
Institutional Investor (May 23)
“After a stronger than anticipated consumer inflation released in the U.S. on Friday, Janet Yellen dampened investors’ hopes that the Federal Reserve would delay a rate increase until next year.” Her underlying message was “that recent setbacks in economic data do not appear to represent a roadblock to growth despite labor conditions that remain fragile.”
