Financial Times (February 17)
“For a generation of Japanese entering the workforce this year, their entire lives have been spent with three things stuck at zero: inflation, interest rates and the chances of the shunto ‘spring offensive’ of wage demands being anything other than a crushing disappointment.” It remains unclear if 2022 will be the year something changes. “Real wages have risen just 0.39 per cent since 2000 and South Korea now outstrips Japan in average pay.”
Tags: Average pay, Inflation, Interest rates, Japan, Shunto, South Korea, Wage demands, Workforce, Zero
Institutional Investor (December 14)
“Investors are proceeding with caution as central banks move to rein in inflation. Expectations of more aggressive monetary policy have prompted investors to adopt more defensive asset allocation strategies…. In addition to piling into cash, investors have also adopted more defensive positioning by overweighting healthcare stocks and underweighting assets that are exposed to interest rate hikes.”
Tags: Aggressive, Asset allocation, Cash, Caution, Central banks, Defensive, Expectations, Healthcare stocks, Inflation, Interest rate hikes, Investors, Monetary policy, Overweighting
Barron’s (December 10)
As it attempts to address inflation without derailing the recovery (or worse), the Fed will be walking a tight rope. On the upside, “the banking system is now both better capitalized and less exposed to illiquidity risk than in the past.” Moreover, “both households and firms are in better shape to weather higher interest costs now than they were in 1981 or, indeed, other episodes of monetary tightening.”
Tags: Banking system, Capitalized, Derailing, Exposed, Fed, Firms, Households, Illiquidity, Inflation, Interest costs, Recovery, Risk
The Guardian (November 26)
“The world’s major central banks are scratching their heads over how to deal with the rising cost of living. Raising interest rates now could deal a blow to the post-pandemic recovery. Wait too long, and inflation may spiral out of control.”
Tags: Central banks, Cost of living, Inflation, Interest rates, Post-pandemic, Recovery, Rising, Spiral, Wait
Washington Post (November 23)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been nominated for another four-year term. If again confirmed, he will face “a daunting challenge: At a time when employment remains several million jobs below pre-pandemic levels, inflation is taking off at a rate not seen for 30 years.” And the blame from all “across the political spectrum” will be pinned on him. “Not since Paul Volcker accepted President Jimmy Carter’s nomination to the position amid double-digit inflation in mid-1979 has any central banker confronted a more difficult situation.”
Tags: Blame, Carter, Challenge, Confirmed, Daunting, Employment, Fed, Inflation, Nominated, Powell, Pre-pandemic, Volcker
Wall Street Journal (November 7)
“The global recovery—while still robust—is at a precarious point, with the risk of missteps.” A recent survey shows “Only about a fifth of businesses judge that the worst of the supply-chain disruptions has passed,” complicating strategy for executives. Meanwhile, central bankers “are trying to chart a path that will curb inflation but not choke off growth as they navigate the process of weaning economies” from extraordinary support.
Tags: Central bankers, Disruptions, Executives, Extraordinary, Global, Growth, Inflation, Missteps, Precarious, Recovery, Risk, Robust, Strategy, Supply chain, Weaning
New York Times (November 4)
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a tapering of stimulus programs, but he did not “lay the groundwork for higher rates.” That doesn’t mean “the era of near-zero rates will last anything close to as long as it did after the global financial crisis,” but if the current inflation surge “proves something other than temporary, Mr. Powell’s decision to stick to his guns” on interest rates “will loom as a missed moment to join other English-speaking countries in using monetary policy to try to stamp it out.”
Tags: Fed, Global financial crisis, Inflation, Interest, Monetary policy, Near-zero, Powell, Rates, Stimulus, Surge, Tapering
Wall Street Journal (October 28)
The U.K. dialed back government stimulus for the fast growing British economy, one of the first big Western economies to step away from the emergency policies put in place to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.” The shift is being spurred by “a buoyant growth outlook and concern over surging inflation,” which is “expected to accelerate to around 5% next year, more than double the BOE’s 2% goal.”
Tags: Buoyant, Concern, Coronavirus, Emergency policies, Fast growing. British economy, Government, Growth, Inflation, Outlook, Pandemic, Stimulus, Surging, U.K.
Australian Financial Review (October 25)
“Inflation will be the key issue for financial markets in coming years, with investors set to reap massive profits or suffer swingeing losses, depending on whether they make the right call on the stickiness of price pressures.” Astute investors are now figuring out strategies, like shortening bond maturities within their portfolio, to help “insulate their investment portfolios from the threat of rising inflation.”
Tags: Bond maturities, Financial markets, Inflation, Investors, Losses, Portfolio, Price pressures, Profits, Shortening, Stickiness, Strategies, Threat
Reuters (October 21)
“Current debates about inflation are mostly concerned with how long it will persist. Will inflation be transitory, as the central bankers insist? Or will consumer prices continue rising for years to come, as the bond bears maintain?” The blind spot seems to be a consideration of “how today’s highly financialised modern economies are likely to respond to a change in the inflation regime.”
Tags: Bears, Blindspot, Bond, Central bankers, Consumer prices, Debates, Inflation, Modern economies, Persist, Response, Transitory
