Bloomberg (September 8)
“China’s export growth slowed to the weakest in six months as a slump in shipments to the US deepened again, although a surge in sales to other markets kept Beijing on track for a record trade surplus of over $1.2 trillion this year.” The figures ‘add to the picture of fracturing global trade flows after President Donald Trump’s tariffs of 55% on Chinese exports…. By steering exports to markets outside… China has racked up a trade surplus of just over $785 billion in the first eight months of the year, almost a third more than during the same period of 2024.”
Tags: $1.2 trillion, Beijing, China, Export growth, Fracturing, Global trade flows, Shipments, Surge, Tariffs, Trade surplus, Trump, U.S., Weakest
Fortune (September 3)
“As traders head into the final leg of 2025 they are not doing so with overconfidence. In fact, if this week’s bond market is anything to go by, they’re nervous.” Safe haven gold has hit record highs and a “global bond selloff” is creating concern over national debt. “The upset isn’t confined to America alone. In Europe, French government bonds…similarly spiked toward a 5% yield and sit at 4.49% at the time of writing, marking its highest run since 2009.” Arguably, the U.K. is getting hit hardest, “with 30-year gilts pushing above 5.7%, their highest level since the spring of 1998.”
Tags: 2025, Bond market, France, Gilts, Global bond selloff, Gold, National debt, Nervous, Overconfidence, Record highs, Safe haven, Traders, U.K., U.S.
Wall Street Journal (September 1)
“America is becoming a nation of economic pessimists.” A recent Wall Street Journal-NORC poll found that “the share of people who say they have a good chance of improving their standard of living fell to 25%, a record low in surveys dating to 1987.” Over three-quarters of respondents lacked “confidence that life for the next generation will be better than their own.” Over two-thirds “believe the American dream—that if you work hard, you will get ahead—no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys.”
Tags: 1987, American dream, Confidence, Economic pessimists, Next-generation, NORC, Poll, Record low, Respondents, Standard of living, U.S.
Bloomberg (August 28)
“US companies are planning to buy back shares at a historic pace, a sign of Corporate America’s confidence in the economy.” In July, “announced share repurchases totaled $166 billion, the highest dollar value on record.” Subsequently, these went on to surpass “$1 trillion on Aug. 20, marking the shortest amount of time needed to reach that level.”
Tags: $1 trillion, Buy back, Companies, Confidence, Corporate America, Economy, Historic, Record, Share repurchases, Shares, Surpass, U.S.
Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
New York Times (August 25)
The Chinese “housing downturn has not delivered the devastating shock that the United States suffered in the 2008 financial crisis, but it has been hanging over the economy for five years with no end in sight.” Prices for new and secondhand homes continue to fall. “The continuing property market slide comes at a vulnerable moment for the Chinese economy. A trade war has limited China’s ability to rev up its export engine, while consumer spending remains soft. The government is plowing money into semiconductors, robotics and other technologies, but those investments are unlikely to pay off quickly enough to fill the hole left by a shrinking property sector.”
Tags: 2008 financial crisis, China, Consumer spending, Devastating, Downturn, Economy, Export engine, Home prices, Housing, Property market, Semiconductors, Trade war, U.S., Vulnerable
Wall Street Journal (August 24)
“Not long ago it would have been hard to imagine a Republican President demanding government ownership in a private company, but here we are. And now the Trump Administration is toying with a tax on patents too—meaning, a tax on innovation.” Very bizarrely, to compete with China, “the U.S. is imitating its model of state-run business. Washington is becoming Chinatown” as, disturbingly, “corporate statism is riding high.”
Tags: China, Chinatown, Compete, corporate statism, Government ownership, Imitating, Innovation, Patents, Private company, Republican, State-run, Tax, Trump, U.S., Washington
Fortune (August 19)
“The U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming decision on whether to cut interest rates in September 2025 is sparking heightened concern on Wall Street, as strategists at Bank of America (BofA) Securities draw unsettling parallels to the months preceding the 2007–08 financial crisis” in a note entitled “Ghosts of 2007.”
Tags: BofA, Concern, Cut, Fed, Financial Crisis, Interest rates, Looming. Decision, Parallels, September, Strategists, U.S., Unsettling, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (August 18)
“The global economy appears to have taken a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and increased uncertainty about the future of the international trading system in its stride, but faces stronger headwinds as tax rates continue to climb.” Many countries chose not to retaliate. “Forgoing retaliation may count as a series of losses for them and a sequence of wins for the U.S. But those choices are also wins for the global economy, and for now a return to the tit-for-tat mayhem of the 1930s seems unlikely.” The tariffs have nevertheless been detrimental, “but it will take some time before the impact of tariff increases that are already settled is clear, and it is likely that further increases in duties will add to the damage.”
Tags: 1930s, Climb, Damage, Duties, Global economy, Headwinds, Impact, International trading system, Mayhem, Retaliate, Tariffs, Tax rates, Tit-for-tat, U.S., Uncertainty
USA Today (August 16)
“President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies will likely significantly slow U.S. growth and push up inflation but stop short of causing a recession or “stagflation” – the dire scenarios that forecasters envisioned before he took office.” Economist Justin Begley of Moody’s Analytics believes the U.S. is edging toward stagflation, but will not end up there. Much will depend on the Fed which “faces a dilemma because lowering rates to bolster a softening labor market could further drive up inflation.”
Tags: Begley, Dilemma, Economic policies, Economist, Fed, Growth, Inflation, Labor market, Moody’s Analytics, Rates, Recession, Stagflation, Stagflation. Dire, Trump, U.S.
