Bloomberg (October 17)
“The IMF estimates that the U.S.-China trade war has shaved 0.8 percentage points off global growth,” but “the costs of tariffs could prove higher than just an economic slowdown.” The largely neglected threat is that the “slowdown, combined with a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, could cause a wave of defaults among corporations. This double whammy could threaten the world’s financial stability.”
Tags: China, Costs, Defaults Financial stability, Global growth, IMF, Monetary policy, Slowdown, Tariffs, Trade war, U.S.
Washington Post (August 2)
“China’s state-driven economic model has created many problems. Monetary policy isn’t one of them.” On the heels of the Fed’s rate cut, the ECB “looks poised to follow suit in September” and “the temptation is high for other central banks to fall in line.” But often they’re “canceling out each other’s efforts,” which is one reason the dollar didn’t fall with the latest rate cut. “Developed nations play out what is a zero-sum game.” In the process, they’re “using up the ammunition they have available to support their economies in the event of a downturn.” In contrast, the PBOC has avoided playing the rate cut game and “China’s 10-year government bond yield is relatively unchanged since the end of 2018.”
Tags: Canceling out, China Economic model, Developed nations, Dollar, Downturn, ECB, Fed, Monetary policy, PBOC, Rate cut, Temptation, Zero-sum game
Nikkei (May 19)
“Japan’s economy” looks “on course for a major downturn,” based on a survey of about 1,300 economists. “Should China’s stimulus take hold, concerns about a worsening Japanese economy may be washed away. Yet Japan is constrained not only in its monetary policy, but also in its fiscal leeway considering the heavy government debt load,” not to mention the need for major employment and social security reforms.
Tags: China, Debt load, Downturn, Economists, Economy, Employment. Social security, Government, Japan, Monetary policy, Reforms, Stimulus
Reuters (July 29)
“The Bank of Japan meets on Tuesday and might be doing some ‘jinarashi’ i.e. preparing markets for some changes to its unique, ultra-loose monetary policy.” With five years of mixed results, as well as “a global trade war now threatening trouble for its big exporters and zero interest rates hurting its banks, the BOJ seems to have recognized that something needs to give.”
Tags: BOJ, Exporters, Global trade war, Japan, Jinarashi, Mixed results, Monetary policy, Ultra-loose, Zero interest rates
Investment Week (November)
The recent 0.25% increase “in interest rates announced by the Bank of England leaves us with no more clarity about the direction of monetary policy than we had before the micro-adjustment. Indeed, the increase raises rather more questions than it resolves.” The cut may simply reverse “the rather ill-judged post referendum cut,” Or it could be one off “nod to those worried about inflation becoming more embedded.” Or it could be “the start of a sequence that will see regular increases in rates along a path towards normalisation.”
Tags: Adjustment, BOE, Clarity, Direction, Inflation, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Normalisation, Referendum
Bloomberg (November 10)
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) proved no match for the zero lower bound. “The Bank of Japan’s recent quarterly report says, in effect, that the central bank has done all it can do to raise growth and inflation, and that fiscal policy needs to step in and help.” The BoJ already “owns more than half of the ETF shares in the whole country” and is estimated to soon “be the biggest shareholder in 55 of the 225 companies in the Nikkei index.” Other central banks will follow Japan’s retreat. “The era of bold monetary policy experimentation that began with the global financial crisis is now drawing to a close.”
Tags: BOJ, Central banks, ETF, Fiscal policy, Global financial crisis, Growth, Inflation, Monetary policy, Nikkei, Shareholder, Zero lower bound
Institutional Investor (May 6)
Unconventional monetary policy, demographic change, economic challenge and technological disruption are impacting debt markets. “Remarkably, the pool of positively yielding debt in the global fixed-income universe has shrunk by more than $5 trillion in less than two years, which clearly presents a tremendous challenge for investors seeking income and attempting to match assets to liabilities.”
Tags: ALM, Challenge, Debt markets, Demographic change, Economic challenge, Fixed income, Monetary policy, Technological disruption, Unconventional, Yields
Institutional Investor (March 10)
“As had been widely anticipated, the European Central Bank today announced a cut for all three key benchmark rates and an expansion of the quantitative-easing program.” What remains to be seen is “what further monetary policy course the bank may take if negative rates fail to jump start spending and growth within the common currency zone.”
Tags: Anticipated, Benchmark rates, ECB, Growth, Monetary policy, Negative rates, Quantitative easing
Financial Times (October 5)
Amidst continuing outflows, emerging markets are much better placed than before the 1997 Asian currency crisis. “Record levels of reserves” should give “troubled countries a window for reform.” Reserves stand roughly 10 times higher than the past crisis. “While no amount of reserves can withstand the loss of market trust, money does buy time. Using reserves to offset capital flight allows central banks temporarily to avoid the classic EM crisis response of tighter monetary policy amid a recession to protect their currency and avoid imported inflation.”
Tags: Asia, Banks, Capital, Crisis, Emerging markets, Market, Monetary policy, Outflows, Recession Inflation, Reform, Reserves
Wall Street Journal (September 5)
“You can’t say Mario Draghi isn’t doing his part.” Trying to deliver another economic “miracle,” the European Central Bank (ECB) President lowered interest rates and increased the negative rate institutions pay on funds deposited with the ECB. “Too bad the politicians keep using Mr. Draghi as an excuse to dodge their responsibility to pass pro-growth reforms…. Europe’s main economic problem is a political class that doesn’t want to address the structural impediments to growth that have nothing to do with monetary policy.”
Tags: ECB, Europe, Excuse, Growth reforms, Interest rates, Mario Draghi, Monetary policy, Politicians, Responsibility, Structural impediments
