The Economist (January 16)
“Since the new year, the price of oil has surprised even the most bearish punters, plunging by 18%.” With prices already dipping below $30 a barrel, few know how low oil will go or when prices will begin to recover. Analysts have placed the bottom as low as $10, with April deliveries calculated at “anything from $25 to $56 a barrel.” The only thing everyone agrees on is that current supply vastly outstrips demand.
Wall Street Journal (November 25)
In the U.S., “the pressure on corporate profits may last longer than expected.” Many have attributed the contraction in corporate profits to temporary trends, namely “the weakness in the commodities sector, which is ravaging profits at energy companies, and the strong dollar, which is putting pressure on multinationals.” Though reassuring, “the problem with those dismissals is that oil may not be done going down, and the dollar may not be done going up.”
Tags: Commodities, Contraction, Corporate profits, Dollar, Energy, Multinationals, Oil, Pressure, Trends, U.S.
Bloomberg (November 25)
“Surging U.S. crude stockpiles that have filled storage tanks near capacity are widening the discount on immediate oil deliveries.” Known as contango, this discount may reach the stage of “supercontango” and is unlikely to go away soon.
Tags: Contango, Crude, Discount, Immediate deliveries, Oil, Stockpiles, Storage, U.S.
USA Today (November 9)
“Innovation is the key to moving from dirtier fuels to cleaner ones.” To the joy of environmentalists, President Obama rejected the proposed Keystone pipeline to carry oil from Canadian tar sands to the U.S. “The main factor behind Obama’s decision is something environmentalists hate even more than Keystone: hydraulic fracturing, or fracking,” which has added over 3.5 million barrels per day to U.S. domestic production. “The lesson for climate change is obvious… If we want to keep oil (and coal) in the ground, we need to make other forms of energy cheaper. That means nurturing technologies such as natural gas extraction. It also means promoting another technology that environmentalists love to hate: nuclear energy.”
Tags: Canada, Climate change, Coal, Environmentalists, Fracking, Fuel, Innovation, Key, Keystone, Nuclear energy, Obama, Oil, Pipeline, Tar sands, Technologies
Financial Times (September 27)
“It is disappointing that Mr Abe chose last week not to redouble his efforts,” especially on the third arrow of structural reform, “but instead promulgate three newer arrows: ‘strong economy’, ‘support for families’ and ‘social security’. Anything that confuses his original, and clearer message risks undermining its goals.” Moreover, his original program has been working. “Japan is no longer the deflationary outlier — virtually every developed country has seen negative inflation following the recent oil price falls. When this effect is stripped out, Japan’s CPI has been growing at between 0.5 and 1 per cent, well above its previous rate.”
Tags: Abe, CPI, Deflationary, Economy, Families, Japan, Negative inflation, New arrows, Oil, Social security, Structural reform, Undermine
Bloomberg (September 2)
“If oil prices take another dramatic slide…, who wins and who loses? And could plummeting oil prices sow the seeds of the next recession?” Even in oil consuming nations, lower oil prices “come with a downside. As they work their way through the system, deflation could follow.”
Tags: Deflation, Downside, Oil, Plummeting, Prices
Financial Times (August 11)
Fears are growing of a meltdown in the aluminum market as Chinese output soars and, much like the oil market, supply outstrips demand. “China now accounts for more than half of global supply, up from 18 per cent in 2003 thanks to cheap power and the world’s most efficiently built smelters. Established producers from North America to Russia and the Middle East—facing the lowest prices since the financial crisis, reduced margins and profits—are anxious but do not want to cut capacity for fear of losing market share.”
Tags: Aluminum, Capacity, China, Fears, Margins, Market share, Meltdown, Middle East, North America, Oil, Output, Profits, Russia, Smelters
Institutional Investor (July 14)
Brazil hopes that a return of foreign capital might provide “an economic boost.” The country sure needs it. The economy has slumped “from 7.5 percent in 2010 to just 0.1 percent in 2014.” It is now in recession. “The end of the global commodities supercycle and the oil market collapse explain much of the decline, but domestic policy problems—including a growing deficit and accelerating inflation—are also to blame.”
Tags: Brazil, Collapse, Commodities, Deficit, Economy, Foreign capital, Inflation, Oil, Recession, Supercycle
The Economist (July 4)
“Shale matters. The industry has become huge—listed firms have invested over half a trillion dollars of capital…. Shale firms owe almost as much debt as Greece. After drilling beneath much of Texas and North Dakota, they account for 5% of global oil output. The health of shale firms affects people around the world, from Western drivers and Saudi Arabia’s sheikhs to Asia’s consumers.”
Tags: Asia, Capital, Consumers, Debt, Drilling, Greece, North Dakota, Oil, Output, Saudi Arabia, Shale, Texas
Financial Times (May 19)
“More than $100bn of spending on new projects by the world’s energy companies has been slowed, postponed or axed following the oil price plunge, evidence of the drastic industry action that will curb output in coming years.” The revisions affect 26 major projects worldwide and, taken as a whole, will “delay future production” by up to 1.5 million barrels a day, the equivalent of nearly 2% of global oil production in 2013.
Tags: Delay, Drastic, Energy, New projects, Oil, Output, Postponed, Production, Spending
