New York Times (March 11)
“A new round of tariffs on aluminum and steel went into effect overnight. This time, no U.S. trading partner was spared.” The EU will respond with “$28 billion in retaliatory levies next month on American products, including bourbon, jeans and agricultural products.” While EU officials “hope they can still strike a deal…. President Trump seems determined to stick with his protectionist policies.” Immediate market reaction was muted, though “the sell-off has wiped roughly $4 trillion off the benchmark index in less than a month — as concerns grow that the levies will push up prices and slow growth.”
Tags: $4 trillion, Agricultural products, Aluminum, Bourbon, EU, Growth, Jeans, Market reaction, Prices, Protectionist policies, Retaliatory levies, Sell-off, Steel, Tariffs, Trading partner, Trump, U.S.
Bloomberg (March 4)
A roller coaster day left the S&P 500 Index ”at its lowest level since Nov. 4, the day before Trump was elected…. The dizzying ride provided a preview of the difficulties facing investors, who now must figure out how to price American assets in what essentially amounts to a new world order created by Trump’s tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.” The volatility and steep decline are “a comeuppance for those on Wall Street who bet big on Donald Trump’s election win, trades that powered the equity market higher along with the dollar and Treasury yields. The bet that Trump wouldn’t do anything to disturb the stock market rally has, for now, been lost.”
Tags: Assets, Canada, China, Comeuppance, Dizzying, Dollar, Investors, Mexico, New world order, S&P 500, Stock market, Tariffs, Treasury yields, Trump, Volatility, Wall Street
Barron’s (March 6)
“The Nasdaq Composite closed in correction territory as Wall Street sold pretty much everything in response to the Trump administration’s latest tariff rhetoric.” Both the S&P 500 and the Dow also dropped amid a tariff saga that has left investors shaking. “The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff plans have caused headaches for market participants. There are also fears among some economists that policy uncertainty will send sentiment falling further until it triggers a recession.”
Tags: 2020, Capitulation, Escalation, Fears, Havoc, Market, Panic selling, Recession, Sparking, Stocks, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S., VIX, Volatility, Worst week, Wreaked
Barron’s (February 24)
Trump wants the dollar to be mighty but weak. It makes no sense.” The President “is ensnared in a logical knot. Either the dollar must remain ‘mighty’ and dominant, or it must shed this albatross and fall to a level more favorable to U.S. exports. To demand that the dollar do both is as illogical as to demand that tariffs raise import revenue while at the same time stopping imports.”
Tags: Demand, Dollar, Dominant, Ensnared, Fall, Favorable, Illogical, Import revenue, Logical knot, Mighty, Tariffs, Trump, U.S. exports, Weak
MarketWatch (February 18)
In the U.S., “home-builder confidence plunged to the lowest level in five months as concerns over tariffs and how they could raise the cost of housing weighed on the industry.” According to the National Association of Home Builders, its “monthly confidence index fell five points to 42 in February…. a significant change in sentiment among home builders” who are increasingly being spooked by Trump’s tariffs and rising material costs. “For buyers, the sentiment shift only adds to the likelihood that home prices could go up in an already expensive housing market.”
Tags: Buyers, Confidence, Confidence index, Home builders, Housing market, Material costs, Plunged, Sentiment, Spooked, Tariffs, Trump, U.S.
The Economist (February 8 Issue)
“If dealmaking means threatening catastrophe in order to win small gains, then Donald Trump is the master of the art.” Despite the collective sigh of relief when he suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico in return for “some old promises,” the story is not necessarily over: “Donald Trump could still blow up global trade.” There is a real chance that “ideology, complacent markets and a need for revenue may still lead to big tariffs.”
Tags: Canada, Catastrophe, Complacent, Dealmaking, Global trade, Ideology, Mexico, Promises, Relief, Small gains, Tariffs, Threatening, Trump
Washington Post (February 5)
“Freaked out by the prospect of a plunging stock market, President Donald Trump backed off his plan to slap 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. He covered up his retreat with the assertion that his threat had prodded America’s neighbors into sending resources to combat drug trafficking at its borders — something, it turns out, they were already doing.”
Tags: 25%, Borders, Canada, Drug trafficking, Freaked out, Mexico, Plunging, Retreat, Stock market, Tariffs, Threat, Trump
Institutional Investor (January 28)
“With Trump once again using tariffs as a key tool in his trade policy, investors are bracing for renewed volatility,” especially given the “frantic pace of changes.” Some investors, however, “remain optimistic about Trump’s potential economic impact.” For example, “KKR’s Henry McVey believes that strong markets and robust corporate earnings will offset any geopolitical risks and tensions.”
Tags: Corporate earnings. Geopolitical risks, Economic impact, Frantic, Investors, KKR, Markets, McVey, Optimistic, Tariffs, Tensions, Tool, Trade policy, Trump, Volatility
Bloomberg (January 26)
“Oil fell as President Donald Trump imposed his first set of sanctions and tariffs in a move that highlighted risks to the global economy and to trade.” U.S. tariffs and other sanctions have now been imposed on Columbia, and the Trump “administration has also threatened actions on flows of goods from a host of other nations, including Canada and China.” On top of that economic uncertainty, Trump is advocating for “OPEC to bring down prices, potentially raising the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.”
Tags: Canada, China, Columbia, Global economy, Oil, OPEC, Prices, Risks, Russia, Sanctions, Tariffs, Threat, Trade, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, War
Foreign Affairs (January 14)
“America’s China strategy is incomplete.” Success will require “a full suite of economic incentives, public-private partnerships, and investment and trade deals to reduce the United States’ and its partners’ reliance on China.” The good news is that U.S. partners are “concerned about Chinese influence themselves” and “eager to work with Washington.” This means Trump’s second term could potentially “supercharge the global shift away from dependence on Chinese supply, bolstering the U.S. economy and enhancing U.S. national security” if he can effectively leverage “economic tools beyond tariffs.”
Tags: China, Eager, Economic incentives, Global shift, Influence, Investment, National security, Public-private partnerships, Reliance, Strategy, Tariffs, Trade deals, U.S.
