Investment Week (August 4)
“The outlook for the UK equity market feels particularly depressed and it is not hard to see why. Even after June’s better-than-expected inflation figures, core UK inflation remains high, which suggests higher interest rates for longer. Commentators are expecting that the base rate, which at 5.25% is at its highest for over 15 years, is likely to peak around 5.75%. This would bring even more pain for mortgage borrowers and greater government borrowing costs to an already faltering economy.”
Tags: 5.25%, 5.75%, Base rate, Borrowers, Depressed, Equity market, Inflation, Interest rates, Mortgage, Outlook, Pain, Peak, UK
Financial Times (July 29)
“Inflation is falling for a number of reasons “beyond the Fed’s control,” like an easing of the worst impacts from “the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.” But the Fed’s rate hikes have effectively “reduced demand for credit.” The results can be seen in mortgage debt and car loans. “Overall, growth in non-revolving credit—the loans you take out just once, like a mortgage—is now just below zero.” There’s one snag on the revolving credit side, where credit growth is still “coming from credit cards.”
Tags: Car loans, Credit, Credit cards, Demand, Falling, Fed, Inflation, Mortgage debt, Non-revolving, Pandemic, Rate hikes, Revolving, Ukraine, War
The Economist (July 22)
“Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Not long ago it seemed that an American recession was inevitable.” Now, expectations are heady that this can be averted, but “the surge of hope is… unusual because the world economy is slowing down.” While “falling inflation is good news,” it remains “too early to hail a ‘soft landing.’”
Tags: Averted, Economists, Expectations, Hope, Inevitable, Inflation, Optimism, Recession, Slowing, Surge, U.S., World economy
Washington Post (July 20)
We may be living in a “Goldilocks economy,” but it “has an end date.” Last year, the investors who “thought stagflation was here to stay were wrong, and they’ll be wrong again if they count on Goldilocks sticking around. Growth and inflation will line up sooner or later, and it’s the growth data that provides a better signal for the trajectory of the economy.”
Tags: End date, Goldilocks economy, Growth, Inflation, Investors, Last year, Signal, Stagflation, Trajectory, Wrong
Reuters (July 19)
“The TOPIX is up 20% this year and trading near a multi-decade high. Some of the drivers are profound. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is asking companies whose shares trade below book value to disclose plans to enhance their market worth, spurring hopes of share buybacks. And the welcome return of inflation could prompt Japanese companies to invest more and pay higher wages, which would in turn prop up consumer spending.”
Tags: Book value, Buybacks, Drivers, Enhance, High, Inflation, Invest, Japanese companies, Market worth, Shares, Topix, TSE, Wages
Markets Insider (June 27)
“The banking crisis that unfolded earlier this year isn’t over, and banks could be hit with losses akin to what was seen in 2008 if the Federal Reserve doesn’t get inflation under control.” In its annual report, the Bank for International Settlements called attention to the “lasting ramifications of 2023’s bank failures, starting with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in early March.”
Tags: 2008, 2023, Annual report, Banking crisis, BIS, Collapse, Failures, Fed, Inflation, Losses, Ramifications, SVB, Unfolded
Wall Street Journal (June 20)
“The world’s central banks underestimated inflation last year. They are trying not to make the same mistake twice.” But they are “in a tricky spot. They need to decide if inflation has stalled way above their 2% target, which could require much higher interest rates to fix, or if inflation’s decline is only delayed. Get the call wrong, and they could push the rich world into a deep recession or force it to endure years of high inflation.”
Tags: 2% target, Central banks, Deep recession, Delayed, Inflation, Interest rates, Mistake, Rich world, Stalled, Tricky spot, Underestimated
New York Times (June 19)
“China’s economic weakness holds benefits and dangers for the global economy. Consumer and producer prices have fallen for the past four months in China, putting a brake on inflation in the West by pushing down the cost of imports from China. But weak demand in China may exacerbate a global slowdown. “
Tags: Benefits, China, Consumer, Dangers, Demand, Global economy, Imports, Inflation, Producer prices, Weakness, West
Bloomberg (June 17)
“European central bankers’ price stability mission is on a collision course with the goal of combating climate change, unless they change their ways.” Ultimately, the ECB may have to institute a special category of green lending to solve what appears to be an irresolvable dilemma. “The transition to a lower-carbon economy may fuel inflation — but raising interest rates in response to that could hinder investment in cleaner energy. So monetary policy and efforts to save the planet risk working against each other, casting a shadow over the prevailing consumer-price-targeting philosophy of the past three decades.”
Tags: Cleaner energy, Climate change, Collision course, ECB, Europe, Green lending, Inflation, Interest, Investment, Lower-carbon economy, Monetary policy, Price stability, Transition
Wall Street Journal (June 16)
“In just 24 hours this past week the central banks of the world’s three biggest economic blocs came to starkly different conclusions, with the eurozone raising rates, the U.S. on hold and the Chinese cutting. It’s getting harder for investors to understand the global economy—and potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation.”
Tags: Biggest, Central banks, China, Conclusions, Cutting, Different, eurozone, Fed, Global economy, Hold, Inflation, Investors, Raising, Rates, U.S.
