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Investment Week (September 18)

2019/ 09/ 20 by jd in Global News

“The global economy is in a tricky spot…. Money markets are pricing in two possible scenarios, with two very different outcomes. First, a high probability of limited Fed easing…. This would not be enough to kick‑start global growth. Second, a low probability of significant Fed easing, resulting in rates being cut close to zero. This—combined with some limited fiscal stimulus from Europe and China—would be enough to refresh global growth.”

 

Bloomberg (September 17)

2019/ 09/ 19 by jd in Global News

Global investors have “sold $4.5 billion of Indian shares since June, on course for the biggest quarterly exodus since at least 1999.” That’s roughly a tenth of their total investment during the previous six years. “India’s economic growth has decelerated for five straight quarters.” India could now experience “a structural slowdown that pummels the country’s $2 trillion stock market, throws a wrench into growth plans of international companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Netflix Inc.,” and diminishes job prospects “for the millions of young Indians who enter the workforce every year.”

 

Wall Street Journal (September 16)

2019/ 09/ 18 by jd in Global News

“Economic activity in China cooled further in August.” Economists had expected a rebound from the troughs of July. Instead, “softness was visible last month in nearly every aspect of the Chinese economy, with industrial output and retail sales data pointing to sluggish demand and low confidence among businesses and consumers.”

 

Reuters (September 16)

2019/ 09/ 17 by jd in Global News

“The last thing the slowing world economy needs is a big and unexpected disruption in oil output.” The drone attacks “took out roughly half of Saudi Arabia’s crude output appear to fit that bill. But even fragile global growth can probably withstand this first cut.” However, if “sustained disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply–or anything that heightens the risk of them–will buoy crude. That will deliver the deepest cut to growth.”

 

The Economist (September 14)

2019/ 09/ 16 by jd in Global News

The internet of things (IoT) “is a slow revolution that has been gathering pace for years, as computers have found their way into cars, telephones and televisions. But the transformation is about to go into overdrive. One forecast is that by 2035 the world will have a trillion connected computers, built into everything from food packaging to bridges and clothes.”

 

Financial Times (September 13)

2019/ 09/ 15 by jd in Global News

Mario Draghi and the ECB have done their part, but “Germany will wait until it is too late before providing a measurable fiscal stimulus.” This is the optimal “time for Europe to invest in its future,” with low inflation, zero cost of borrowing and fiscal surpluses. “German leaders know this,” but fear alarming “the good burghers of Munich, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Were recession to provoke a full-blown euro-zone crisis, Berlin would of course act…. But do not expect Germany to dispatch the fire brigade before the flames have fully taken hold. What a waste.”

 

Barron’s (September 12)

2019/ 09/ 14 by jd in Global News

“Be careful what you wish for when calling for zero or negative interest rates, Mr. President.” There’s a downside and the results are not inspiring. “The record of negative rates in the euro zone, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, and Japan has been mixed…. While bond yields have fallen below zero, banks been reluctant to impose negative rates on depositors, resulting in a squeeze on their profits.”

 

The Guardian (September 12)

2019/ 09/ 13 by jd in Global News

“Here the issue… is that a British prime minister persists in asserting the impossible. He demands that Britain leave the European single market but with a gaping hole in its border, in Ireland. He wants a border and no border.” A no-deal Brexit would cause “chaos” in a worst case scenario, but “in Ireland it is physically impossible.”

 

Bloomberg (September 10)

2019/ 09/ 12 by jd in Global News

“In Japan, is there one standard of justice for Japanese executives and another for non-Japanese executives? The forced resignation on Monday of Nissan Motor Co.’s chief executive officer, Hiroto Saikawa, certainly seems to suggest as much.” At this point, “would any non-Japanese manager really be interested in taking the helm at Nissan given what happened to Ghosn? It’s a little hard to envision.”

 

Washington Post (September 9)

2019/ 09/ 11 by jd in Global News

“It’s true that Trump likes making deals. He’s just not very good at it. In fact, he may be the worst dealmaker ever to occupy the Oval Office. The abrupt disintegration of his accord with the Taliban provides the latest evidence that he’s too impetuous and ignorant to be a successful negotiator…. Trump is a better dealbreaker than dealmaker.”

 

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