Reuters (June 19)
“Central banks are grappling with elevated uncertainty about economic growth and inflation, complicating decision-making, especially for those trying to calibrate policy as they near the end of their rate-cutting cycles.” The rate uncertainty is in turn “making life hard for investors.” For example, “Norway’s central bank on Thursday gave markets a shock by cutting interest rates, and even the U.S. Federal Reserve is warning not to put much weight on its policy projections.”
Tags: Calibrate, Central banks, Decision-making, Economic growth, Fed, Grappling, Inflation, Investors, Norway, Policy projections, Rate-cutting cycles, U.S., Uncertainty, Warning
New York Times (June 18)
“China is unleashing a new export shock on the world.” Chinese goods, thwarted by Trump’s tariffs, are now “flooding countries from Southeast Asia to Europe to Latin America.” China does not seem to be following “the traditional trajectory of economies that move away from low-end manufacturing as they become more mature and developed.” Instead, it has doubled-down on manufacturing, which far exceeds domestic demand. As a result, the “countries that have borne the brunt of the jump in Chinese imports have also seen sharp declines in their own manufacturing, leading to job losses and bankruptcies.”
Tags: Bankruptcies, China, Chinese goods, Domestic demand, Doubled-down, Europe, Export shock, Flooding, Imports, Job losses, Latin America, Low-end manufacturing, Southeast Asia, Trajectory, Trump’s tariffs, Unleashing
The Interpreter (June 17)
“American influence in the Pacific is evaporating like wet footprints in the hot sun,” according to a recent survey of Australians. “The United States was already lagging behind China in 2024 (at 25 per cent versus China’s 34 per cent), but this year’s result shows only around half as many Australians think America holds the most influence in the Pacific (18 per cent) as those who think the same of China (34 per cent).”
Tags: 2024, Australians, China, Evaporating, Influence, Lagging, Pacific, Survey, U.S.
Washington Post (June 15)
The “U.S. could lose more immigrants than it gains for first time in 50 years.” This would “mark a turning point in the country’s demographic and economic trajectory, and an abrupt shift from the nearly 3 million net migrants the United States gained just last year.” Negative migration “could become a drag on the U.S. labor force,” potentially slowing “economic growth and fueling inflation.”
Tags: 3 million, 50 years, Abrupt shift, Demographic, Drag, Economic growth, Inflation, Labor force, Migrants, Negative migration, Trajectory, Turning-point, U.S.
The Economist (June 14)
“The world must escape the manufacturing delusion.” Nearly everywhere you turn, “politicians are fixated on factories.” They want to win them, open them, expand them and bring them home. But this fixation “with factories is built on myths—and will be self-defeating…. the global manufacturing push will not succeed. In fact, it is likely to do more harm than good.”
Tags: Escape, Expand, Factories, Fixated, Global, Harm, Manufacturing, Manufacturing delusion, Myths, Open, Politicians, Self-defeating, Succeed, World
WARC (June 13)
“Alphabet, Amazon and Meta dominate the advertising market outside China: they’re set to account for 54.7% of that total in 2025 – equivalent to $524.4bn – rising to 56.2% in 2026. The introduction of AI stands to disrupt some ad revenue models, particularly in search, but Google’s dominance of that market will likely persist in the near term,” according to WARC’s Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025.
Tags: $524.4bn, 2025, 2026, Ad revenue, Advertising market, AI, Alphabet, Amazon, China, Disrupt, Dominance, Dominate, Global Ad Forecast, Google, Market, Meta, Persist
New York Times (June 12)
“America’s closest allies are increasingly turning to each other to advance their interests, deepening their ties as the Trump administration challenges them with tariffs and other measures that are upending trade, diplomacy and defense.” Much of the proactive push involves Britain, France, Canada, Japan and other middle powers. Their efforts “to come closer together as the United States recalibrates its global role… will be on display over the next few days as the Group of 7 industrialized nations’ leaders meet in Alberta, Canada.”
Tags: Advance, Alberta, Allies, America, Britain, Canada, Challenges, Defense, Diplomacy, France, G7, Japan, Middle powers, Recalibrates, Tariffs, Ties, Trade, Trump, U.S., Upending
Washington Post (June 12)
“Trump miscalculated on China. Now the administration is trying to fix the mess.” The United States “started off with the economic upper hand, thanks to low unemployment, falling inflation and a strong global network of alliances,” but Trump “overplayed” his hand with China. As a result, “markets are volatile because of uncertainty. Recession fears loom.” Now, the “two nations have a chance for a reset. But both must recognize they remain mutually dependent.”
Tags: Administration, Alliances, China, Falling inflation, Global network, Low unemployment, Markets, Mess, Miscalculated, Mutually dependent, Overplayed, Recession fears, Reset, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Upper hand, Volatile
Institutional Investor (June 10)
“As the U.S. economy has become a knowledge economy, motivating and engaging talent has only grown in importance given its positive effect on productivity.” But attributes like these “aren’t captured in traditional financial statements.” Since 2020, “the Human Capital Factor” has been quantifying “the link between human capital and future equity value” for investors and has “outperformed the S&P 500 every year since its launch.”
Tags: Attributes, Economy, Engaging, Equity value, Financial statements. 2020, Human Capital Factor, Investors, Knowledge economy, Motivating, Outperformed, Positive effect, Productivity, Quantifying, S&P 500, Talent, U.S.
CNN (June 10)
According to the World Bank, “Global economic growth is on track for its weakest decade since the 1960s.” Its current forecast now estimates global GDP growth in 2025 at 2.3%, a downgrade “from the 2.7% it had forecast in January.” If the World Bank’s current projections for 2025 and 2026 transpire, the global economy will be “on course for its weakest pace of growth in 17 years, excluding two global recessions” arising from the2009 financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
Tags: 1960s, 2.3%, 2025, 2026, Downgrade, Economic growth, Financial Crisis, Forecast, GDP growth, Global, Weakest decade, World Bank
