Wall Street Journal (June 18)
The Japanese yen “has now passed the closely watched 160-per-dollar level at which officials have previously intervened.” There are, however, reasons “why yen interventions this time around may prove trickier.” Even though the BoJ increased “rates to their highest level since 1995 this week,” the interest rate differential persists between Japan and the U.S., and this continues to punish the currency, as does the situation in the Middle East.
Tags: 160-per-dollar, 1995, BOJ, Currency, Differential, Interest rate, Intervened, Interventions, Japan, Middle East, Officials, Punish, Trickier, U.S., Yen
The Guardian (June 18)
“A president’s wishful thinking” is giving way to “uncomfortable realities.” This is not an unconditional surrender, vindication or victory. “The memorandum of understanding signed in Versailles lays bare US failure and the pointlessness of this illegal war…. Having squandered billions of dollars, and thousands of lives, Mr Trump is accepting less than was on offer before the conflict.” The impetuous president “bombed first and negotiated later.” As a result, “Tehran has seen its escalatory tactics succeed, while the US has undermined its own credibility.”
Tags: Billions, Bombed first, Conflict, Credibility, Failure, Illegal, Impetuous, Lives, MOU, Negotiated later, Pointlessness, Squandered, Tehran, Trump, U.S., Uncomfortable realities, Unconditional surrender, Undermined, Versailles, Wishful thinking
Barron’s (June 17)
President Trump inked an Iran Deal that “leaves more questions than answers.” While traders are “optimistic that one way or another, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil will resume its prewar flows,” their optimism is not shared by many analysts. “Oil analysts remain skeptical as to how soon, if ever, shipping will resume through the strait at prewar levels. That’s in part because it is unclear if Iran’s agreement not to charge tolls for 60 days, as stated in the memo, will become permanent.”
Tags: Analysts, Iran Deal, Oil, Optimistic, Permanent, Prewar flows, Questions, Reopen, Resume, Shipping, Skeptical, Strait of Hormuz, Tolls, Traders, Trump
South China Morning Post (June 15)
“Japan is falling into a trap in defending its currency against the US dollar, like Thailand in 1996. Japan’s large forex reserves make the yen a juicy target, rather than deterring currency predators. Its fundamentals are weak and deteriorating, making the yen’s further decline inevitable.”
Tags: 1996. Forex reserves, Currency, Decline, Defending, Deteriorating, Dollar, Fundamentals, Japan, Predators, Target, Thailand, Trap, U.S., Weak, Yen
Bloomberg (June 15)
“In theory, a peace deal, potentially even a temporary one, should release millions of barrels of oil that have been trapped for months in the Persian Gulf. In practice, there will still be a long list of impediments — including prosaic problems like the need to remove barnacles from ship hulls, and to ensure crews are in position and prepared to sail without electronic navigation signals.”
Tags: Barnacles, Crews, Impediments, Navigation, Oil, Peace deal, Persian Gulf, Practice, Prepared, Prosaic, Sail, Ship hulls, Temporary, Theory, Trapped
Wall Street Journal (June 14)
Even if the U.S./Iran deal holds, it will still “take months for the oil market to return to normal.” First the mines must be removed. Even then, insurers and oil shippers “are expected to remain cautious about traveling through the waterway. It would likely take even longer for the U.S. and other countries to replenish their depleted oil inventories, keeping prices elevated.”
Tags: Cautious, Deal, Depleted, Insurers, Iran, Mines, Normal, Oil inventories, Oil market, Oil shippers, Prices, Replenish, U.S., Waterway
MarketWatch (June 13)
Due to the difficulty of restricting all access by foreigners under “export-control restrictions issued by the U.S. government,” Anthropic has completely suspended access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, regardless of nationality. This unexpected twist “suggests that the biggest corporate developers may face even more roadblocks going forward.” The move could usher in more regulation “for political and geopolitical purposes” and drive “countries to develop their own AI models so that they’re not denied access to major private ones going forward.” Greater national urgency could be “good news for suppliers of AI infrastructure, which could see heightened demand for AI hardware and related products,” but that would also “make the market more competitive for big players like Anthropic and OpenAI that need to ramp up paid usage to solidify the economics of AI development.”
Tags: Access, AI models, Anthropic, Competitive, Developers, Export-control, Fable 5, Foreigners, Geopolitical, Hardware, Infrastructure, Mythos 5, Paid usage, Political, Regulation, Restrictions, Roadblocks, Suppliers, U.S.
Financial Times (June 12)
“After years of false dawns, many of the world’s leading tech companies are now betting that quantum computers will start to outperform their conventional counterparts by 2030—with a potentially huge impact on fields ranging from cryptocurrencies and financial services to drug discovery.” Opinions vary widely. “Some scientists worry that the sheer power of the technology could endanger privacy and national security while others still doubt that useful machines can be made at all.”
Tags: 2030, Conventional, Cryptocurrencies, Drug discovery, Endanger, False dawns, Financial services, National security, Outperform, Privacy, Quantum computers, Scientists, Tech companies
The Times (June 11)
“Since the historic Nato summit in The Hague one year ago this month, European leaders have pledged massive increases in defence spending in the face of increasingly acute threats of Russian aggression. Yet the reality is that key west European governments – especially the UK, France and Italy – are not putting their money where their mouth is for fear of undermining lenders’ confidence in their national debt.”
Tags: Confidence, Defense spending, Europe, France, Governments, Historic, Italy, Leaders, Lenders, National debt, Nato summit, Pledged, Russian aggression, Threats, UK
Institutional Investor (June 11)
“De-dollarization doesn’t mean capital is leaving America.” Investment decisions are often deceptively labeled de-dollarization even though the capital remains in the U.S. and is simply “changing form, swapping fixed financial claims on dollars for ownership of assets that generate cash flow and reprice with inflation.” Sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors haven’t dumped dollars, “but increasingly avoid holding dollar claims. Bonds are giving way to utilities, pipelines, and logistics networks. Investors are moving away from returns locked in nominal dollars into assets whose income adjusts with inflation.”
Tags: Adjusts, Assets, Capital, Cash flow, Claims, De-Dollarization, Fixed financial claims, Income, Inflation, Investment decisions, Nominal dollars, Ownership, Reprice, Returns, Sovereign wealth funds, U.S.
