Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
Barron’s (July 19)
“This market risk is a slow-motion wreck waiting to happen.” And yet the U.S. market remains sanguine, largely tuning “out the past week’s tariff drama.” Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, is “cautioning investors against complacency because multiple ‘low-grade shocks’ can take their toll like that of a frog in boiling water.” The impact of tariffs, deportations and “the series of low-grade shocks the market is struggling to digest” will eventually appear and “investors may be underestimating their impact on inflation.”
Tags: Beamish, Boiling water, Chief economist, Complacency, Deportations, Frog, Inflation, Investors, Low-grade shocks, Market risk, Slow-motion wreck, Tariffs, TS Lombard, U.S.
Investment Week (July 17)
“BlackRock teams are ‘very concerned’ with capturing the tone of US President Donald Trump’s policy stance, to the extent that the asset management giant has spent time tracking the president’s use of capital letters in his social media.” For a while, they found the ratio of upper to lower case letters was a good indicator of the President’s tone, but their approach has been stymied because he now “writes everything in capitals.”
Tags: Asset management, BlackRock, Capital letters, Concerned, Indicator, Policy stance, President, Social media, Stymied, Tone, Tracking, Trump, U.S.
Reuters (July 15)
“Toyota and Hyundai Motor may have a beef with U.S. protectionism, but they have one thing in common with President Donald Trump: when it comes to global car markets, it’s America first for Asia’s legacy automakers.” With the outlook “upended” by Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. still “remains by far the most important market for Japan’s Toyota, South Korea’s Hyundai and Asian rivals including Honda and Nissan. North America accounts for at least 40% of the revenue at both Toyota and Hyundai.”
Tags: Car markets, Honda, Hyundai, Japan, Legacy automakers, Nissan, Outlook, Protectionism, South Korea, Tariffs, Toyota, Trump, U.S., Upended
Market Watch (July 14)
In contrast with previous guidance, Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. home prices to grow only 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% the following year, “a huge drop from the growth the market saw during the pandemic.” Goldman cited “three big reasons for its pessimism regarding home prices: slowing prices, rising housing supply and persistently high mortgage rates.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Drop, Goldman Sachs, Growth, Guidance, Home prices, Housing supply, Market, Pandemic, Pessimism, Slowing, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 12)
“Would Tariff Man please take a summer vacation for the good of the nation? Stocks tumbled on Friday after President Trump announced he will raise tariffs on Canada to 35%, starting Aug. 1.” Following this, Trump “floated increasing his current 10% across-the-board tariffs on many countries to 15% or 20%.” Tarriff Man “seems to think that his unpredictability is a negotiating advantage. But keeping trading partners guessing—along with investors and U.S. companies with global supply chains—isn’t a recipe for economic strength.”
Tags: 35%, Advantage, Canada, Companies, Economic strength, Investors, Negotiating, Stocks, Summer vacation, Supply chains, Tariff Man, Trading partners, Trump, Tumbled, U.S., Unpredictability
New York Times (July 8)
“China has overtaken Detroit as the center of the global auto industry. America can embark on an all-out push to rebuild world-class manufacturing and supply chains, or our carmakers can hide behind tariffs, continue making gas-powered trucks and S.U.V.s and fade into irrelevance.”
Tags: Auto industry, Carmakers, Center, China, Detroit, Gas-powered, Manufacturing, Overtaken, S.U.V.s, Supply chains, Tariffs, Trucks, U.S.
Bloomberg (July 7)
Wall Street currency traders are increasingly “flying blind” as once reliable models misfire and new forces, “like the broad shift of money out of the US and foreign investors buying dollar hedges,” drive markets. Since Trump’s second term began, currency experts “have been blindsided by the dollar’s selloff and are now questioning whether the past few months will go down as a chaotic but short-lived adjustment or the start of a harder-to-navigate era.”
Tags: Adjustment, Blindsided, Chaotic, Currency traders, Dollar hedges, Flying blind, Foreign investors, Markets, Misfire, Reliable models, Selloff, Trump, U.S., Wall Street
Barron’s (July 3)
“It’s a muddled picture, one that suggests that demographics and policies have slowed U.S. labor supply while uncertainty over future tariffs may have curbed labor demand. Clues for how this stasis plays out should emerge in the earnings reporting season set to kick off later this month.”
Tags: Clues, Curbed, Demographics, Earnings, Emerge, Future tariffs, Labor demand, Labor supply, Muddled picture, Policies, Reporting season, Stasis, Suggests, U.S., Uncertainty
Fortune (July 1)
“Consumer spending is weakening. The job market is getting worse for workers. And U.S. stock investors are loving it. The S&P 500 rose 0.52% yesterday, hitting an all-time high for the second day in a row.” The surging market suggests “investors don’t anticipate anything dramatic like a mass selloff.” Their optimism seems to be pinned on hopes that “the deteriorating macro picture” will convince the Federal Reserve to “cut interest rates sooner rather than later. And cheap money is usually good for stocks.”
Tags: All-time high, Consumer spending, Fed, Investors, Job market, Mass selloff, Optimism, S&P 500, Stocks, Surging, U.S., Weakening, Workers
