New York Times (September 16)
“While other countries have scrambled to meet President Trump’s demands to strike deals for reduced tariffs, China has kept to its own timetable.” The costly price has been a 15% drop in “China’s exports to the United States… so far this year.” China has successfully offset this with surging exports to other countries, but robust exports are “masking weakness in other parts of its economy. A persistent real estate downturn has wrecked [sic] havoc on the economy. Consumers are spending less, while joblessness among young people remains a major problem. China is also dealing with a stubborn deflationary spiral, spurred by overproduction in key industries and price wars.” Still, given its degree of media control, the Chinese government does not appear anxious about negotiating a trade deal with the U.S.
Tags: China, Consumers, Deals, Deflationary spiral, Demands, Downturn, Economy, Exports, Havoc, Joblessness, Overproduction, Price wars, Real estate, Spending, Surging, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Weakness
Bloomberg (September 8)
“China’s export growth slowed to the weakest in six months as a slump in shipments to the US deepened again, although a surge in sales to other markets kept Beijing on track for a record trade surplus of over $1.2 trillion this year.” The figures ‘add to the picture of fracturing global trade flows after President Donald Trump’s tariffs of 55% on Chinese exports…. By steering exports to markets outside… China has racked up a trade surplus of just over $785 billion in the first eight months of the year, almost a third more than during the same period of 2024.”
Tags: $1.2 trillion, Beijing, China, Export growth, Fracturing, Global trade flows, Shipments, Surge, Tariffs, Trade surplus, Trump, U.S., Weakest
New York Times (September 6)
“When the federal government last month reported a sharp decline in the nation’s hiring, President Trump dismissed the numbers, claiming without evidence that they were “rigged,” and then ousted the official responsible for producing them.” This month’s jobs report was even worse, confirming “the reality that Mr. Trump has been trying to avoid. The labor market is stalling—and the nation is facing real strains—under the weight of his economic agenda.” His administration will try to deflect, but “the numbers mostly reflect what Americans already know.” Consumer sentiment has weakened in anticipation of tariff-linked inflation while “surveys show that workers are worried about holding onto their jobs and pessimistic about their chances of finding a different one.”
Tags: Consumer sentiment, Federal government, Hiring, Inflation, Jobs report, Labor market, Rigged, Sharp decline, Stalling, Strains, Tariffs, Trump, Weakened, Workers, Worried
Wall Street Journal (August 18)
“The global economy appears to have taken a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and increased uncertainty about the future of the international trading system in its stride, but faces stronger headwinds as tax rates continue to climb.” Many countries chose not to retaliate. “Forgoing retaliation may count as a series of losses for them and a sequence of wins for the U.S. But those choices are also wins for the global economy, and for now a return to the tit-for-tat mayhem of the 1930s seems unlikely.” The tariffs have nevertheless been detrimental, “but it will take some time before the impact of tariff increases that are already settled is clear, and it is likely that further increases in duties will add to the damage.”
Tags: 1930s, Climb, Damage, Duties, Global economy, Headwinds, Impact, International trading system, Mayhem, Retaliate, Tariffs, Tax rates, Tit-for-tat, U.S., Uncertainty
The Atlantic (August 14)
“After making a show of getting tough on China, President Donald Trump desperately needs a trade agreement to prove that his disruptive tactics get results.” This desperation has again postponed additional tariffs on China, which “would have hurt business between the world’s two largest economies. But the president’s newfound willingness to allow the export of vital AI chips to China indicates that an eventual deal could imperil American interests. Eager for a pact, Trump may give up more than he receives.”
Tags: AI chips, American interests, China, Desperation, Disruptive tactics, Eager, Export, Imperil, Pact, Postponed, Results, Tariffs, Tough, Trade agreement, Trump
CNN Business (August 14)
In the U.S., “businesses have been eating Trump’s tariffs. That’s starting to change.” Wholesale inflation “picked up steam last month, with prices rising by the fastest monthly pace since June 2022.” The Producer Price Index (PPI) “jumped 0.9% from June, lifting the annual rate to 3.3%.” With costs “sharply on the rise for producers and manufacturers in July,” it looks like “higher prices could soon filter down to American consumers.”
Tags: $3, Businesses, Consumers, Costs, Higher, July, Manufacturers, PPI, Prices, Producers, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Wholesale inflation
Wall Street Journal (August 12)
“President Trump views tariffs as a toll that he alone gets to set for access to U.S. markets. Now he’s charging fees on U.S. companies for the purported privilege of exporting artificial-intelligence chips to China. Mark this as another step toward government control of private business.”
Tags: Access, Artificial intelligence, China, Chips, Companies, Exporting, Fees, Government control, Private business, Privilege, Tariffs, Toll, Trump, U.S. markets
Wall Street Journal (August 1)
“There is an irony in Detroit right now: The automaker most reliant on U.S. manufacturing is among the hardest hit by tariffs.” Of any automaker, Ford manufactures the most vehicles in the U.S. “Some 80% of the cars Ford sells in the U.S. are built there,” but Ford is being “put it at a disadvantage with foreign rivals. Those deals now set a 15% tariff rate.” Ford which paid $800 million for tariffs in Q2 has been particularly hard hit as it “faces steeper tariffs on many parts as well as higher costs for imported aluminum, which is subject to 50% duties.”
Tags: $800 million, 15%, 50, Aluminum, Automaker, Detroit, Disadvantage, Ford, Foreign rivals, Irony, Manufacturing, Parts, Q2, Reliant, Tariffs, U.S., Vehicles
AP (August 1)
“For weeks, President Donald Trump was promising the world economy would change on Friday with his new tariffs in place. It was an ironclad deadline.” Instead, with a one week delay for tariff updates, he “injected a new dose of uncertainty for consumers and businesses still wondering what’s going to happen and when.” Precious “few things seemed to be settled other than the president’s determination to levy the taxes.” Even the “legality of the tariffs remains an open question,” with a federal appeals court hearing oral arguments on Trump’s authority to impose the tariffs.
Tags: Appeals court, Authority, Businesses, Consumers, Delay, Ironclad deadline, Legality, Levy, Oral arguments, Promising, Tariffs, Taxes, Trump, Uncertainty, Updates, World economy
Financial Times (July 28)
“The world was in striking agreement on one point: if Donald Trump went ahead with tariffs, it would strengthen the dollar and trigger stagflation.” It hasn’t, even though the “effective US tariff rate has already risen from 2.5 per cent to 15 per cent.” This outcome is unlikely to upturn conventional tariff wisdom. The U.S. is not “really enjoying a free lunch, taking in $300bn a year in tariff revenues with none of the expected heartburn.” It is much more probable that other factors, like AI’s explosive growth, have hidden the impact. The most likely culprit is “the timeworn mistake of employing simple models…. Complex economies are rarely shaped by just one factor, not even a shock as big as Trump’s tariffs.”
Tags: 15%, Agreement, AI, Complex economies, Conventional wisdom, Dollar, Free lunch, Hidden, Impact, Simple models, Stagflation, Tariffs, Trump, U.S.
