Reuters (September 16)
“The last thing the slowing world economy needs is a big and unexpected disruption in oil output.” The drone attacks “took out roughly half of Saudi Arabia’s crude output appear to fit that bill. But even fragile global growth can probably withstand this first cut.” However, if “sustained disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply–or anything that heightens the risk of them–will buoy crude. That will deliver the deepest cut to growth.”
Tags: Crude, Crude output, Disruption, Drone attacks, Economy, Fragile, Growth, Middle East, Oil, Output, Risk, Saudi Arabia, Supply, Unexpected
Reuters (September 5)
“The most likely outcome is now that GDP growth will come in below 2.5%, perhaps significantly lower, the worst since the recession of 2008/09. By implication, oil consumption growth is likely to slip below 1% and 1 million bpd, in line with BP’s latest forecast,” but well short of the last two decade’s 1.5% average annual growth rate. “Until the global economy recovers momentum, oil consumption growth is likely to remain well below trend, keeping prices under pressure.”
Tags: BP, Economy, Forecast, GDP, Growth, Implication, Momentum, Oil consumption, Outcome, Recession
Financial Times (September 4)
“The US manufacturing sector has contracted for the first time in three years as the US-China trade war weighted on the industrial economy and added to fears over slowing domestic growth.” While one quarters manufacturing results do not necessarily lead to a US recession, “the details of yesterday’s ISM report were ugly, with new orders, production and employment sub-indices all contracting.”
Tags: China, Contracted, Fears, Growth, Industrial economy, ISM, Manufacturing, Orders, Recession, Slowing, Trade war, US
Financial Times (July 6)
“There is bad news and good news for emerging market investors this year. The bad is that EM growth is tanking; the good is that there is money to be made while it tanks.”
Wall Street Journal (June 11)
“Japan is fumbling what looks like its last chance to avoid an unnecessary and economically damaging sales-tax hike.” The LDP came out with “a fresh commitment to increase the tax to 10% from 8% in October.” Since Prime Minister Abe returned “to office in 2012, Japan has recorded its longest period of nominal growth since the country’s asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. Gains in Japan’s Topix stock index beat all large developed markets outside the U.S. over the same period. There is no pressing need to junk that promising record now.”
Tags: Abe, Asset bubble, Damaging, Fumbling, Growth, Japan, LDP, Sales-tax hike, Topix, U.S., Unnecessary
Bloomberg (April 10)
“India has so far been spared the kind of populist revolt that’s testing many rich Western democracies. It’s far from immune, however.” Whoever wins the upcoming election should “recognize that many of the conditions for a similar upheaval are in place — and that the best way to avoid it is to promote growth and opportunity through economic reform.”
Tags: Election, Growth, India, Populist revolt, Rich, Upheaval, Western democracies
Wall Street Journal (April 7)
“Friday’s solid labor report out to ease fears that the U.S. Economy is skidding toward recession…While growth has cooled, neither recession nor runaway inflation appear imminent.”
The Guardian (February 12)
“GDP growth slipped to its lowest since 2012, at 1.4%, down from 1.8% in 2017.” The UK’s dismal performance in 2018 gave the lie to “Philip Hammond’s claim that Britain can reap an economic dividend from Theresa May’s Brexit deal…as official figures confirmed the UK has suffered its worst year for GDP growth since 2012.”
Tags: Brexit, Dismal, Economic dividend, GDP, Growth, Hammond, May, Performance, UK
CNN (January 3)
“Evidence is mounting that the US-China trade war is dealing a blow to the American stock market. Stocks plunged on Thursday after Apple (AAPL) blamed a big sales miss on slowing growth in China and rising trade tensions. China’s massive manufacturing sector… has tumbled into contraction. And trade trouble helped fuel the biggest one-month decline in US factory activity since the Great Recession.”
Tags: Apple, China, Contraction, Decline, Evidence, Great Recession, Growth, Manufacturing, Plunged, Stock market, Tensions, Trade war, U.S.
Bloomberg (November 2)
China’s belt and road master plan “to project Chinese power, influence and trade across much of the world could well undermine all three.” The trillion-dollar global infrastructure scheme has gotten out of control. “A scaled-down, better-managed Belt and Road—guided more by economics and less by politics—should, as intended, promote growth and trade across the region and beyond. That would serve everybody’s interests.”
Tags: Belt and road, China, Economics, Growth, Influence, Infrastructure, Politics, Power, Trade
