The Economist (March 22)
“Global spending on basic infrastructure—transport, power, water and communications—currently amounts to $2.7 trillion a year when it ought to be $3.7 trillion. The gap is almost as big as South Korea’s GDP. And it is likely to grow fast.” To close the gap, governments need to step forward, and new ways need to be found to coax private capital investment in infrastructure.
Tags: Communications, Gap, GDP, Government, Infrastructure, Investment, Power, Private capital, South Korea, Spending, Transport, Water
Euromoney (February Issue)
In Mexico, “cheaper electricity will lower manufacturing costs across the board, and the country could become a competitor in energy-intensive industries such as aluminum and steel production.” President Enrique Peña Nieto introduced sweeping reforms to liberalize the electricity and oil and gas sectors, prompting analysts to add “an extra 1.5% to future GDP growth rates as a direct consequence of the scope of these reforms and many say the risks are on the upside. Suppliers, contractors and a whole host of other industries will benefit.”
Tags: Aluminum, Analysts, Competitor, Contractors, Costs, Electricity, Enrique Peña Nieto, Gas, GDP, Manufacturing, Mexico, Oil, Reforms, Risks, Steel, Suppliers, Upside
Washington Post (October 27)
“Not many countries would cheer about an economic growth rate of one-tenth of 1 percent, sustained for a mere three months. But for Spain, which has been mired in negative growth for two years, the tiny uptick in the third quarter of 2013 represents a kind of breakthrough.” For Europe, however, this is just the slightest hint of a “silver lining in a what is still a very dense, dark cloud hanging over Europe’s economy. Spain and its fellow euro-zone debtors — Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece — don’t just need a trickle of growth to bring down their unemployment rates and debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratios. They need a gusher; many consecutive months of high-single-digit growth. And there is no short-term prospect of that.”
Tags: Breakthrough, Debt, Economy, Euro zone, Europe, GDP, Greece, Growth, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Unemployment, Uptick
Institutional Investor (September Issue)
“While Abe may have won the first couple of rounds, he will need to win plenty more before he can declare final victor in his high-stakes bid to turn around Japan, Inc…. For one, unless structural changes are made, demographics are likely to prove disastrous to Japan’s economy. For another, Japan’s nominal GDP is still at 2008 levels, meaning that it has stood still for the past five years. Finally, with public debt now exceeding 1,000 trillion yen ($10.2 trillion), time may be running out for Japan to sort out its problems.”
Tags: Abe, Debt, Demographics, Economy, GDP, Japan, Structural changes
Euromoney (July 9)
“The new Chinese government’s policy drive to deleverage the banking sector has become more apparent, and that deleveraging will continue to unfold in the next six to 12 months. In what Morgan Stanley calls its ‘super-bear scenario’, it estimates that aggressive policy tightening will reduce Chinese GDP growth to an annual rate of 5.5% in the second half of this year.” If the scenario plays out (a one in ten chance according to Morgan Stanley), it “would have major implications for global markets.”
Tags: Banking sector, China, Deleveraging, GDP, Global markets, Government, Growth, Morgan Stanley, Policy, Scenario, Super-bear
The Economist (July 6)
“Good economic news has begun to fall on Britain like drops of rain in the midst of a drought. The country is parched: revisions to GDP estimates released last week suggest that output is still 3.9% lower than its 2008 peak, a worse performance than any other G20 country except Italy. As confidence returns, it seems almost impolite to point out that the British economy still has a sickly core of weak investment, productivity and wages, and that hard policy decisions lie ahead.”
Tags: Confidence, Economy, G20, GDP, Investment, Italy, Output, Productivity, UK, Wages
Institutional Investor (May Issue)
“Investors are clamoring for sell-side research as Japanese equities lead the world in gains…. For quite a long time—decades—most of the economic and financial news out of Japan was negative. Over the past six months or so, it has been overwhelmingly positive. Stock prices are up. Real gross domestic product growth is rising. Investor interest is at its highest level in years.”
Wall Street Journal (February 19)
An Atlantic free trade pact presents tremendous opportunity. “A good pact could raise GDP on both sides of the Atlantic by as much as 1% a year. The European Union and U.S. traded some $646 billion in goods last year—only Canada comes close as a U.S. trade partner…. Merely starting the talks will also motivate the current trans-Pacific trade talks to get moving and perhaps even draw Japan lest it be left behind.”
Euromoney (December Issue)
We might be in line for some tasty economic porridge in 2013. “The US, Japan and Europe will be too cold next year. Manufacturing from emerging economies might be too hot. The result, though, might be just right.” World GDP could expand at 3% with industrial output up 5% or more. “Like Goldilocks’ porridge—growth is warm enough to reduce defaults and produce cashflow to service debt, but not too hot to spark inflation and a massive bond sell-off.”
We might be in line for some tasty economic porridge in 2013. “The US, Japan and Europe will be too cold next year. Manufacturing from emerging economies might be too hot. The result, though, might be just right.” World GDP could expand at 3% with industrial output up 5% or more. “Like Goldilocks’ porridge—growth is warm enough to reduce defaults and produce cashflow to service debt, but not too hot to spark inflation and a massive bond sell-off.”
Tags: 2013, Economic forecast, Emerging economies, Europe, GDP, Industrial ouput, Inflation, Japan, Manufacturing, U.S.
The Economist (September 29)
“Growth at last appears to be returning to Britain’s economy…. The squeeze on real take-home pay is easing as inflation falls and wages edge up. Business surveys suggest activity is picking up…. which suggests the current quarter will see a positive figure for GDP growth.” In 2009, the UK experienced a “false dawn.” With “countless threats to renewed recovery,” leaders should avoid choking this recovery to make up for revenue shortfalls.
Tags: Economy, False dawn, GDP, Growth, Recovery, Revenue shortfalls, Threats, UK
