Wall Street Journal (September 29)
Hedge fund veteran Mark Spitznagel “previously said markets would rally as the Fed eases in a Goldilocks phase, but has also warned a recession is coming and that rate cuts are also the opening signal for big reversals down the line. In the current environment, that means in the biggest market bubble in history will soon pop, eventually prompting the Fed to ‘do something heroic’ but doom the economy to stagflation.”
Tags: China, Consuming, Deflationary hole, Long term, Short run, State support, Stimulus
Reuters (September 28)
“Treasury yields and the dollar fell while the Dow registered a record closing high on Friday as a subdued U.S. inflation report lifted expectations of an outsized interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting.” On top of that, “a global stock index also reached a record high, helped by China’s stimulus boost, and European shares posted an all-time high close.”
Tags: China, Dollar, Dow, Europe, Expectations, Fed, Global stock, High, Index, Inflation, Interest rate, Policy meeting, Record, Stimulus, U.S., Yields
Financial Times (September 27)
China’s biggest stimulus package since the pandemic has “supercharged markets, putting Chinese stocks on track for their best week since 2008.” The massive package boasts “billions of dollars from the central bank to support the stock market, policy rate cuts, measures to boost bank liquidity and efforts to stabilise China’s prolonged property crisis, including a 50-basis point interest rate cut for mortgage holders.” Nevertheless, it may not be enough “to reignite consumer confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.”
Tags: 2008, Central bank, China, Markets, Mortgage, Pandemic, Property crisis, Rate cuts, Stimulus, Stock market, Stocks, Supercharged
Forbes (September 20)
“Dalio hasn’t fled China. But the fact that the founder of the globe’s biggest hedge fund is raising warning flags matters. Not just because he’s the biggest of the big money, but because his pivot comes at a moment of maximum paranoia about China’s trajectory into 2025. This includes deflationary forces of the kind with which Tokyo is still grappling 30 years on.”
Tags: 2025, China, Dalio, Deflationary forces, Fled, Grappling, Hedge-fund, Maximum paranoia, Pivot, Tokyo, Trajectory, Warning flags
Fortune (September 18)
“Any prominent investor comparing China with Japan prior to its lost decades of stagnation ought to be alarming.” It’s even more alarming when it’s Ray Dalio, the founder of massive hedge fund, Bridgewater. Long known as China bull, he now “fears the property crisis in China has left local governments unable to service their debt by extracting equity through land sales” and that China’s economy now “faces problems as severe as Japan in 1990.”
Tags: Alarming, Bridgewater, China, Dalio, Debt, Economy, Equity, Founder, Hedge-fund, Investor, Japan, Local governments, Property crisis, Severe, Stagnation
South China Morning Post (September 11)
“China’s top legislature has reviewed a plan to gradually raise the retirement age,” which is one of the lowest in the world at 60 for men and 50 (blue collar) or 55 (white collar) for women. The move comes “after China’s leadership has repeatedly called for the retirement age to be delayed in recent years, as the country faces growing pressure from a declining birth rate and an ageing population.”
Tags: $60, 50, 55, Birth rate, China, Declining, Leadership, Legislature, Lowest, Pressure, Retirement age, White collar
Bloomberg (September 10)
“A deepening selloff in Chinese stocks is exacerbating a crisis of confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, heaping pressure on policymakers to halt the downward spiral.” The benchmark CSI 300 Index “of the nation’s onshore shares is near the lowest levels since January 2019, yet another reflection of the depth of the market gloom.”
Tags: 2019, Benchmark, China, Crisis of confidence, CSI 300 Index, Deepening, Downward spiral, Exacerbating, Policymakers, Pressure, Selloff, Stocks
Chicago Tribune (September 8)
Amidst the flood of steel from China, “Nippon Steel was well advised to look for ways to strengthen its hand” while “the U.S. Steel board of directors was free to approve the $14.9 billion acquisition offer, as they did in April.” Nippon Steel believes “the investment will revitalize American steel manufacturing and pay dividends in further industrial cooperation, and most economists, liberal and conservative, agree.” Unfortunately, the merger is being uprooted by politics.
Tags: $14.9 billion, Acquisition, Approve, China, Dividends, Economists, Investment, Manufacturing, Merger, Nippon Steel, Politics, U.S. Steel
Fortune (September 5)
“JPMorgan joins a growing chorus of global firms downgrading their expectations for China’s stock market, following similar moves by former China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management and Nomura Holdings Inc. in the last few weeks. It signals exclusion of China is becoming a popular strategy for investors and analysts amid the country’s dimming prospects and the likelihood of better returns elsewhere.”
Tags: Analysts, China, China bulls, Downgrading, Exclusion, Expectations, Investors, JPMorgan, Nomura, Stock market, Strategy, UBS
Barron’s (September 4)
“Oil prices fell below $70 a barrel on Wednesday despite reports that OPEC+ nations are considering delaying a planned oil output hike in October.” One of the main drivers was ”weakening demand from China.” Other factors included the situation in Libya and “fears about a weakening U.S. economy.”
Tags: 70, Barrel, China, Delay, Fears, Libya, October, Oil prices, OPEC, Output hike, U.S., Weakening, Weakening demand
