Financial Times (August 23)
“Closely watched gauges of long-term inflation expectations in Europe have reached their lowest levels for almost two years, in a sign that investors think central banks can keep lowering interest rates without risking a flare-up in price pressures.” Concerns are also easing in the U.S., with “markets pricing the average long-term inflation rate at 2.4 per cent, down from 2.6 per cent in July.”
Tags: Central banks, Concerns, Easing, Europe, Expectations, Flare up, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Price pressures, Risking, U.S.
Washington Post (May 28)
“Nearly everything Americans believe about the economy is wrong.” A recent poll revealed that dire “perceptions of the U.S. economy are often at odds with reality.” In fact, “the U.S. economy has been growing consistently for nearly two years, even after accounting for inflation” and is “exceeding growth expectations” across most benchmarks. “The U.S. economy has been outperforming other advanced economies. We’re also doing better than pre-pandemic forecasts had situated us by now, both in terms of gross domestic product and the number of jobs out there. This generally isn’t true elsewhere in the world.”
Tags: Benchmarks, Economy, Expectations, GDP, Growing, Inflation, Outperforming, Perceptions, Poll, Pre-pandemic, Reality, U.S., Wrong
The Economist (July 22)
“Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Not long ago it seemed that an American recession was inevitable.” Now, expectations are heady that this can be averted, but “the surge of hope is… unusual because the world economy is slowing down.” While “falling inflation is good news,” it remains “too early to hail a ‘soft landing.’”
Tags: Averted, Economists, Expectations, Hope, Inevitable, Inflation, Optimism, Recession, Slowing, Surge, U.S., World economy
The Economist (June 18)
“China’s economy is on course for a ‘double dip.’ The post-covid economy was meant to roar. But it is faltering again.” Since April, “retail sales, investment and property sales all fell short of expectations. And the unemployment rate among China’s urban youth rose above 20%, the highest since data began to be recorded in 2018.”
Tags: China, Double-dip, Economy, Expectations, Faltering, Investment, Post-Covid, Property sales, Retail sales, Unemployment rate, Urban youth
BBC (June 13)
“UK wages have risen at their fastest rate in 20 years, excluding the pandemic, raising expectations that UK interest rates will have to rise. Regular pay excluding bonuses increased by 7.2% in the three months to April, although it still lags behind inflation.” The Bank of England has raised “interest rates 12 times since 2021 to try to slow price rises” and warned that surging pay is contributing to inflation.
Tags: 7.2%, BOE, Bonuses, Expectations, Inflation, Interest rates, Pandemic, Pay, Price, Surging pay, UK, Wages
Reuters (June 7)
After beating expectations in Q1, “China’s exports shrank much faster than expected in May while imports extended declines with a grim outlook for global demand, especially from developed markets, raising doubts about the fragile economic recovery.”
Tags: Beating, China, Declines, Developed markets, Doubts, Expectations, Exports, Fragile, Global demand, Grim outlook, Imports, May, Q1
The Hindu (February 15)
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das proclaimed the worst of inflation was in the rear-view mirror. Five days later, January CPI estimates “revealed a disconcerting reversal in price gains trend. Headline retail inflation… quickened by 80 basis points last month to 6.5%. Propelling the acceleration was a 175 basis-points jump in food prices.” This “surprise reversal” suggests that “inflationary expectations in the economy are nowhere near anchored and will necessitate further policy action both from the RBI and fiscal authorities.”
Tags: Acceleration, Anchored, CPI, Economy, Expectations, Food prices, India, Inflation, Price gains, Reserve Bank, Surprise reversal
New York Times (February 2)
The “disconnect” between cautious Fed statements and “investor expectations” is rooted in the tension between current data and projections. “Many forecasters expect the labor market, as well as inflation in many kinds of services, to weaken this year as the full effect of the Fed’s rate moves plays out; the Fed, on the other hand, is waiting for clearer signs in the data.”
Tags: Data, Disconnect, Expectations, Fed, Forecasters, Inflation, Investor, Labor market, Projections, Rates, Services, Tension
Washington Post (January 30)
“The outlook for the global economy in recent weeks has unexpectedly brightened, with the United States, Europe and China all outperforming expectations and avoiding — at least for now — some predicted stumbles.”
Tags: Brightened, China, Europe, Expectations, Global economy, Outlook, Outperforming, Stumbles, U.S.
Investing.com (August 9)
“Inflation expectations among consumers in the U.S. have plunged, falling at the fastest rate ever in the history of the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations.” The July survey revealed “consumers expect inflation to rise 6.2% over the next year and 3.2% over the next three years,” down considerably from 6.8% and 3.6% in June’s survey.
