Barron’s (December 10)
As it attempts to address inflation without derailing the recovery (or worse), the Fed will be walking a tight rope. On the upside, “the banking system is now both better capitalized and less exposed to illiquidity risk than in the past.” Moreover, “both households and firms are in better shape to weather higher interest costs now than they were in 1981 or, indeed, other episodes of monetary tightening.”
Tags: Banking system, Capitalized, Derailing, Exposed, Fed, Firms, Households, Illiquidity, Inflation, Interest costs, Recovery, Risk
Wall Street Journal (November 7)
“The global recovery—while still robust—is at a precarious point, with the risk of missteps.” A recent survey shows “Only about a fifth of businesses judge that the worst of the supply-chain disruptions has passed,” complicating strategy for executives. Meanwhile, central bankers “are trying to chart a path that will curb inflation but not choke off growth as they navigate the process of weaning economies” from extraordinary support.
Tags: Central bankers, Disruptions, Executives, Extraordinary, Global, Growth, Inflation, Missteps, Precarious, Recovery, Risk, Robust, Strategy, Supply chain, Weaning
Financial Times (September 22)
“While Evergrande’s US dollar bonds are trading at levels that suggest default, Beijing is unlikely to allow the company’s woes to proliferate to the point at which they risk creating a systemic crisis. The correct way to view the Evergrande meltdown is to see it as a controlled explosion. Beijing is teaching the developer a very public and painful lesson.”
Tags: Beijing, Bonds, Controlled, Default, Evergrande, Explosion, Lesson, Meltdown, Painful, Risk, Systemic crisis, Trading
Wall Street Journal (August 23)
The Government of Japan “is already on the hook to pay out nearly $10 trillion to its creditors.” This may appear *an impossibly large sum to rustle up” when annual tax collections amount to “less than $600 billion.” But today’s “economists talk more about the risk of issuing too little debt” and the U.S. may soon follow Japan’s lead. “Congress is debating trillions of dollars more in proposed spending that would push America’s borrowing toward levels policy makers in Tokyo have long embraced.”
Tags: $10 trillion, Borrowing, Congress, Creditors, Debt, Economists, Government, Japan, Risk, Spending, Tax collections, U.S.
BBC (August 17)
“Unprecedented levels of dam building and water extraction by nations on great rivers are leaving countries further downstream increasingly thirsty, increasing the risk of conflicts.” During the 20th Century, “global water use grew at more than twice the rate of population increase.” As a result, water crises have consistently ranked high in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks and look poised to become an increasing source of conflict.
Tags: Conflict, Conflicts, Crises, Dam building, Downstream, Extraction, Population, Risk, Rivers, Thirsty, Unprecedented, Water, Water use
New York Times (July 12)
“Mr. Branson’s flight reinforces the hopes of space enthusiasts that routine travel to the final frontier may soon be available to private citizens, not just the professional astronauts of NASA and other space agencies.” Other billionaire entrepreneurs are on his heels, all “risking injury or death to fulfill their childhood aspirations — and advance the goal of making human spaceflight unexceptional.”
Tags: Aspirations, Astronauts, Billionaire, Branson, Childhood, Citizens, Death, Enthusiasts, Entrepreneurs, Final frontier, Flight, Hopes, Human Spaceflight, Injury, NASA, Risk, Routine, Space, Travel
WARC (May 6)
With plunging online sales, “Adidas and Nike are the latest western brands to feel the effects of China’s attacks on companies that criticize reported human rights abuses against Uyghurs in the country’s Xinjiang region.” There have also been calls for boycotts of H&M, Burberry and Uniqlo. “The reaction highlights the tension foreign brands face between speaking out, on the one hand, as their domestic customers increasingly demand, and, on the other, risking commercial damage by offending Beijing.”
Tags: Abuses, Adidas, Attacks, Boycotts, Brands, Burberry, China, Customers, H&M, Human rights, Nike, Online sales, Risk, Tension, Uniqlo, Uyghurs
The Guardian (April 12)
“Japan does not especially want to deliver the prestige of the first major global sporting event since the pandemic started to China.” Cancelling the Olympics would also place “billions of dollars at stake.” But “set against that are the lives that could be lost…. Undoubtedly, the cancellation of the Games would lead to disappointment and financial losses. However, these factors must be weighed against any risk that the Olympics could make the pandemic worse.”
Tags: Cancellation, China, Disappointment, Dollars, Global, Japan, Lives, Losses, Olympics, Pandemic, Prestige, Risk, Sporting event
The Economist (March 20)
Last week China slapped down democracy in Hong Kong. The imposition of tight mainland control over the territory is not just a tragedy for the 7.5m people who live there, it is also a measure of China’s determination not to compromise over how it asserts its will.” But China has pressure points. It is “more tightly coupled with the West than communist Russia ever was. This presents the free world with an epoch-defining question: how should it best secure prosperity, lower the risk of war and protect freedom as China rises?”
Tags: China, Communist, Compromise, Control, Democracy, Hong Kong, Imposition, Mainland, Prosperity, Risk, Russia, Territory, War
Barron’s (February 23)
“Markets are now pricing for the sweet spot of reflation toward equilibrium. But too much of a good thing is, well, not a good thing. And with the Biden administration proposing a fiscal stimulus package nearly three times as large as the U.S. output gap and given a probable improvement in household demand as more Americans are vaccinated, the risk of overheating is not trivial.”
Tags: Biden, Equilibrium, Fiscal stimulus, Household demand, Markets, Overheating, Pricing, Reflation, Risk, Sweet spot, U.S., Vaccinated
