Wall Street Journal (June 14)
Even if the U.S./Iran deal holds, it will still “take months for the oil market to return to normal.” First the mines must be removed. Even then, insurers and oil shippers “are expected to remain cautious about traveling through the waterway. It would likely take even longer for the U.S. and other countries to replenish their depleted oil inventories, keeping prices elevated.”
Tags: Cautious, Deal, Depleted, Insurers, Iran, Mines, Normal, Oil inventories, Oil market, Oil shippers, Prices, Replenish, U.S., Waterway
Barron’s (June 5)
“Markets have soared toward the rare air last breathed by investors in the mid-1980s, but the stalling tech rally is bringing stocks back down to Earth.” It was “a series of quarterly updates on Wednesday that punctured a hole in the AI trade that has powered markets higher since the end of March.” The “market’s angst” was compounded by “stubbornly high Treasury yields, the lack of an agreement on ending the U.S. war with Iran, and a near 10% gain for global crude prices since last Friday’s close.”
Tags: 1980s, AI trade, Angst, Crude, Investors, Iran, Markets, Punctured, Quarterly updates, Rare air, Soared, Stalling, Stocks, Tech rally, Treasury yields, U.S., War
Barron’s (May 19)
“Bond markets haven’t been swayed by President Donald Trump’s latest assurances on the war with Iran, with yields holding stubbornly higher” and impacting the broader economy. “Elevated bond yields are contributing to rising inflation, with April producer inflation at its highest since December 2022, challenging growth investments.” It appears “the bond market is forcing a reckoning Trump isn’t able to stop.”
Tags: April, Assurances, Bond markets, Broader economy, Elevated, Growth investments, Iran, Producer inflation, Reckoning, Rising inflation, Swayed, Trump, War, Yields
Barron’s (May 14)
“If we’re lucky, this week’s summit in Beijing won’t produce any shocking headlines on Iran, Taiwan, or any of the other prickly issues that divide the U.S. and China.” Instead, Trump “should surprise Xi with an offer to open the U.S. market to Chinese cars.” This would “stabilize the relationship with China, relieve the affordability squeeze back home, and re-energize his grumbling electoral base.” Trump only has two choices. “He can watch as Chinese cars are sold everywhere except America, or he can allow them to be made in America, by Americans.”
Tags: Affordability, Beijing, China, Chinese cars, Grumbling, Iran, Made in America, Market, Stabilize, Summit, Taiwan, U.S., Xi
Wall Street Journal (May 12)
“The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.” Though the stalemate “could shift any day,” it appears ”the most likely scenario for now is a continued limbo.” Little suggests “that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.”
Tags: Bedeviled, Compromise, Conflict, Continued limbo, Diplomatic stalemate, Gray zone, Iran, Peace, U.S., War
Bloomberg (May 9)
“A fresh batch of consumer price data in the coming week is likely to affirm Americans’ growing frustration with inflation.” According to a Bloomberg survey, economists are predicting “a sharp 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for April” as “prices at the gas pump have vaulted more than 50% since the US- and Israeli-led war on Iran started in late February.” Moreover, this is likely to begin filtering through to the broader economy. “The swift upturn in fuel prices is likely to be passed on by businesses in the form of higher consumer prices for other goods and services.”
Tags: April, Broader economy, Consumer prices, Economists, Fuel prices, Gas pump, Goods, Growing frustration, Inflation, Iran, Israel, Prices, U.S., Upturn, War
New York Times (May 8)
“A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.”
Tags: Ability, Analysts, China, Defend, Drained, Firepower, Grinding, High stakes, Iran, Leverage, Questioning, Summit, Taiwan, Threatens, Trump, U.S., Undercut, War
Financial Times (May 7)
“US fuel exports have surged to a record level as Europe and Asia lean on American energy supplies to make up for the shortfalls caused by the war in Iran.” Last week, America exported over “8.2mn barrels a day of refined fuels including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel,” a year-on-year increase exceeding 20%. Last week’s “huge demand for US energy” also transformed America into “a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since the second world war.” While this provides “a windfall” to US energy companies, “it also risks a political backlash for President Donald Trump as domestic pump prices rise.”
Tags: 20%, 8.2mn bbl, Asia, Backlash, Crude oil, Demand, Diesel, Energy, Europe, Exports, Fuel, Gasoline, Iran, Jet fuel, Record, Shortfalls, Surged, Trump, U.S., War, Windfall
The Economist (May 2)
“What was once unthinkable now appears unending. Most energy traders used to assume that, even under attack, Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil ordinarily flows.” It’s been two months since the Iran conflict broke out, “traffic in Hormuz remains near zero. Diplomatic efforts to get it flowing again are intermittent and inconclusive. Although a negotiated resolution is always possible, it is also conceivable that the strait could stay shut indefinitely.”
Tags: Attack, Chokepoint, Conceivable, Conflict, Diplomatic efforts, Energy traders, Inconclusive, Indefinitely, Intermittent, Iran, Negotiated, Oil, Resolution, Strait of Hormuz, Traffic, Unending, Unthinkable
New York Times (April 29)
“Trump appears to be miscalculating yet again, believing that his blockade and economic pressure on Iran will succeed where his bombings failed…. Two months into the war, Iran and the United States each seems to feel it is in the stronger position. Faced with the prospect of making concessions to the other side, each may prefer to delay or escalate, with the world economy held hostage.”
Tags: Blockade, Bombings, Concessions, Delay, Economic pressure, Escalate, Failed, Iran, Miscalculating, Stronger, Succeed, Trump, U.S., War, World economy
