Wall Street Journal (May 12)
“The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.” Though the stalemate “could shift any day,” it appears ”the most likely scenario for now is a continued limbo.” Little suggests “that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.”
Tags: Bedeviled, Compromise, Conflict, Continued limbo, Diplomatic stalemate, Gray zone, Iran, Peace, U.S., War
Bloomberg (May 9)
“A fresh batch of consumer price data in the coming week is likely to affirm Americans’ growing frustration with inflation.” According to a Bloomberg survey, economists are predicting “a sharp 0.6% increase in the consumer price index for April” as “prices at the gas pump have vaulted more than 50% since the US- and Israeli-led war on Iran started in late February.” Moreover, this is likely to begin filtering through to the broader economy. “The swift upturn in fuel prices is likely to be passed on by businesses in the form of higher consumer prices for other goods and services.”
Tags: April, Broader economy, Consumer prices, Economists, Fuel prices, Gas pump, Goods, Growing frustration, Inflation, Iran, Israel, Prices, U.S., Upturn, War
New York Times (May 8)
“A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.”
Tags: Ability, Analysts, China, Defend, Drained, Firepower, Grinding, High stakes, Iran, Leverage, Questioning, Summit, Taiwan, Threatens, Trump, U.S., Undercut, War
Financial Times (May 7)
“US fuel exports have surged to a record level as Europe and Asia lean on American energy supplies to make up for the shortfalls caused by the war in Iran.” Last week, America exported over “8.2mn barrels a day of refined fuels including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel,” a year-on-year increase exceeding 20%. Last week’s “huge demand for US energy” also transformed America into “a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since the second world war.” While this provides “a windfall” to US energy companies, “it also risks a political backlash for President Donald Trump as domestic pump prices rise.”
Tags: 20%, 8.2mn bbl, Asia, Backlash, Crude oil, Demand, Diesel, Energy, Europe, Exports, Fuel, Gasoline, Iran, Jet fuel, Record, Shortfalls, Surged, Trump, U.S., War, Windfall
The Economist (May 2)
“What was once unthinkable now appears unending. Most energy traders used to assume that, even under attack, Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil ordinarily flows.” It’s been two months since the Iran conflict broke out, “traffic in Hormuz remains near zero. Diplomatic efforts to get it flowing again are intermittent and inconclusive. Although a negotiated resolution is always possible, it is also conceivable that the strait could stay shut indefinitely.”
Tags: Attack, Chokepoint, Conceivable, Conflict, Diplomatic efforts, Energy traders, Inconclusive, Indefinitely, Intermittent, Iran, Negotiated, Oil, Resolution, Strait of Hormuz, Traffic, Unending, Unthinkable
New York Times (April 29)
“Trump appears to be miscalculating yet again, believing that his blockade and economic pressure on Iran will succeed where his bombings failed…. Two months into the war, Iran and the United States each seems to feel it is in the stronger position. Faced with the prospect of making concessions to the other side, each may prefer to delay or escalate, with the world economy held hostage.”
Tags: Blockade, Bombings, Concessions, Delay, Economic pressure, Escalate, Failed, Iran, Miscalculating, Stronger, Succeed, Trump, U.S., War, World economy
Fortune (April 27)
“The Iran conflict has confirmed a transformation in the economics of warfare toward cheap, mass-produced weapons, forcing a wholesale rethinking of military procurement.” Iran’s strategy “is the opposite of the West’s model of precision lethality.” It deliberately embraces mass losses because “even the most advanced defenses can be overwhelmed with sufficient volume” and “cost asymmetry” places tremendous burden on the enemy. In this case, “cost asymmetry is worsened by severe production and supply-chain constraints.” The U.S. has burned through 50% of its THAAD interceptors, with the next delivery of THAAD interceptors not expected until April 2027.
Tags: Cheap, Conflict, Cost asymmetry, Economics, Iran, Mass losses, Mass-produced, Military procurement, Precision lethality, Production, Rethinking, Supply-chain constraints, THAAD interceptors, Transformation, U.S., Volume, Warfare, Weapons
Bloomberg (April 25)
“The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.” The IEA believes “global oil demand is on track to slump the most in five years this month.” Things will surely get worse. “A billion barrels of supply loss is already all-but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released” since the conflict began. “With a stalemate between US President Donald Trump and his Iranian adversaries dragging on, the impact is increasingly shifting west — and to products that are central to consumers’ everyday lives.”
Tags: Adversaries, Alarm, Billion barrels, Conflict, Crash, Demand, Emergency inventories, Harsh, IEA, Impact, Iran, Oil shock, Rich world, Slump, Stalemate, Strait of Hormuz, Supply, Traders, Trump
Wall Street Journal (April 23)
“The conflict with Iran has entered a damaging new phase—a crippling limbo between war and peace that leaves the Strait of Hormuz closed and the prospect of escalation looming.” The explosions have stopped, “but the battle for control of the strait, one of the most important conduits of global commerce, is raging, leaving commodity traders on edge and helping push international oil prices above $100 a barrel on Wednesday.”
Tags: Battle, Commodity traders, Conflict, Crippling, Damaging, Escalation, Global commerce, Iran, Limbo, Looming, Oil prices, Peace, Raging, Strait of Hormuz, War
South China Morning Post (April 20)
A “Hormuz moment” might signal the “decline of US dominance.” Citic Securities analysts are comparing the unfolding situation in Iran to the “Suez moment,” when Great Britain “lost control of the Suez Canal along with its global superpower status.” On Saturday, the analysts wrote “that a similarly consequential ‘Hormuz moment’ could be a watershed for America’s global supremacy.” In fact, Citic posits “the global order may have already undergone subtle but significant changes.”
Tags: Analysts, Citic Securities, Consequential, Control, Decline, Dominance, Hormuz moment, Iran, Suez Canal, Superpower status, Supremacy, U.S., UK, Unfolding, Watershed
