Newsweek (March 29)
“While the Trump administration is optimistic about the country’s growth prospects… economists are voicing gloomy forecasts.” Among them, “Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi on Thursday compared the current levels of uncertainty to those seen during 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash, having previously said that he felt the country was being ‘pushed into a recession’ by Donald Trump’s tariff policies.”
Tags: 2008 financial crash, 9/11, Economists, Gloomy forecasts, Growth prospects, Moody, Optimistic, Recession, Tariff policies, Trump, Uncertainty, Voicing, Zandi
Washington Post (March 14)
President Trump may be hoping to copy Argentinian President Javier Milei’s success at beating inflation and rejuvenating an economy. Trump now seems “willing to risk a recession to see his vision come to pass,” but his approach is more likely to “backfire and harm the economy for years to come. Recessions hurt. They have long-lasting effects.” On top of that, the President is focused on restoring yesteryear’s jobs. He “is fixated on returning to the economy of the 1990s — or even the 1890s. The only thing worse than undergoing a forced recession would be a forced recession that leaves America less competitive.”
Tags: 1990s, Argentina, Backfire, Economy, Inflation, Jobs, Less competitive, Milei, Recession, Risk, Trump, Vision
Barron’s (March 6)
“The Nasdaq Composite closed in correction territory as Wall Street sold pretty much everything in response to the Trump administration’s latest tariff rhetoric.” Both the S&P 500 and the Dow also dropped amid a tariff saga that has left investors shaking. “The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff plans have caused headaches for market participants. There are also fears among some economists that policy uncertainty will send sentiment falling further until it triggers a recession.”
Tags: Correction territory, Dow, Economists, Fears, Headaches, Investors, Market participants, Nasdaq, Recession, S&P 500, Sentiment, Sold, Tariff, Trump, Uncertainty, Wall Street
Barron’s (March 6)
“The Nasdaq Composite closed in correction territory as Wall Street sold pretty much everything in response to the Trump administration’s latest tariff rhetoric.” Both the S&P 500 and the Dow also dropped amid a tariff saga that has left investors shaking. “The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff plans have caused headaches for market participants. There are also fears among some economists that policy uncertainty will send sentiment falling further until it triggers a recession.”
Tags: 2020, Capitulation, Escalation, Fears, Havoc, Market, Panic selling, Recession, Sparking, Stocks, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S., VIX, Volatility, Worst week, Wreaked
U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
Wall Street Journal (December 14)
“Falling prices in China” are causing havoc “as factories struggle to cope with overcapacity and weak demand.” This is increasing pressure “on Beijing to take more forceful action to prevent a downward spiral of deflation that becomes self-reinforcing, potentially landing China in a longer-term recession.”
Tags: China, Deflation, Downward spiral, Factories, Falling prices, Havoc, Overcapacity, Recession, Self-reinforcing, Struggle, Weak demand
CNN (October 30)
“The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.” James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is among the “economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off” a soft landing. “That scenario, in which inflation is tamed without a recession” would mark “an exceptionally rare achievement.”
Tags: Bullard, Economists, Economy, Fed, Historic, Inflation, Officials, Rare, Recession, Remarkable, Soft landing, St. Louis, Tamed, U.S.
Financial Times (October 10)
“Germany is facing its first two-year recession since the early 2000s as the government downgraded its 2024 growth forecast for the eurozone’s largest economy.” Hurdles have included “soaring inflation, high interest rates and energy costs driven higher by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” along with longer term “structural problems, such as Germany’s dire skills shortage, years of under-investment in infrastructure and excessive red tape.”
Tags: Economy, Energy costs, eurozone, Germany, Growth forecast, Hurdles, Inflation, Infrastructure, Interest rates, Recession, Russia, Skills shortage, Structural problems, Ukraine, Under-investment
Fortune (September 30)
Hedge fund veteran Mark Spitznagel “previously said markets would rally as the Fed eases in a Goldilocks phase, but has also warned a recession is coming and that rate cuts are also the opening signal for big reversals down the line. In the current environment, that means in the biggest market bubble in history will soon pop, eventually prompting the Fed to ‘do something heroic’ but doom the economy to stagflation.”
Tags: Bubble, Doom, Economy, Fed, Goldilocks phase, Hedge-fund, Markets, Rally, Rate cuts, Recession, Reversals, Spitznagel, Veteran
Washington Post (July 9)
The Sahm Rule is considered “the best available recession indicator.” From its nadir, the unemployment rate has risen nearly half a percentage point, which is the rule’s threshold signifying a new recession. “This indicator is flashing a warning sign for the United States. It doesn’t indicate a recession will definitely happen soon, but it is an important wake-up call, and the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention.”
Tags: Attention spans, Fed, Indicator, Nadir, Recession, Sahm Rule, U.S., Unemployment rate, Wake-up call, Warning sign
