Bloomberg (September 26)
“Asian markets risk a reprise of crisis-level stress as two of the region’s most important currencies crumble under the onslaught of relentless dollar strength. The yuan and yen are both tumbling due to the growing disparity between an uber-hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish policy makers in China and Japan.”
Tags: Asia, China, Crisis, Crumble, Currencies, Disparity, Dollar, Dovish, Fed, Hawkish, Markets, Onslaught, Relentless, Risk, Stress, Tumbling, Yen, Yuan
Bloomberg (July 20)
There seems to be a split “forming between a growing number of bearish yen watchers in Tokyo and their more positive foreign counterparts.” With the yen at a 24-year nadir, “strategists are debating whether one of the year’s hottest macro trades—sell the yen—is overdone.” In Japan, many think “there’s still plenty of time to pile on shorts,” but overseas “analysts from Sydney to Geneva… say time is nearly up on the trade as the yen slips further toward the key psychological level of 140 per dollar.”
Tags: 140 per dollar, Analysts, Bearish, Foreign, Japan, Macro trades, Nadir, Overdone, Overseas, Shorts, Split, Strategists, Tokyo, Yen
Financial Times (July 4)
“If the BoJ sticks to its guns while the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the yield divergence could spell a further collapse in the yen beyond the 24-year low. But if the BoJ moves to tweak its monetary policy, or if a global recession prompts a U-turn in US interest rates and a flight to safe havens, it could trigger an abrupt reversal.”
Tags: 24-year low, BOJ, Collapse, Divergence, Global recession, Interest rates, Japan, Monetary policy, Reversal, Safe havens, U.S.. Fed, Yen, Yield
Financial Times (May 6)
“The yen may very well experience further depreciation pressure over the coming weeks… we are in a complex and volatile period for global markets.” Beyond that, however, “there are a number of paths to recovery for the yen…. Investors can anticipate a rebound in the yen over time and should consider owning this haven asset as a hedge against global recession and other tail risks.”
Tags: Anticipate, Asset, Complex, Depreciation, Global markets, Haven, Hedge, Investors, Pressure, Rebound, Recession, Recovery, Volatile, Yen
Reuters (April 1)
In March, the Japanese yen “lost around 8% against the dollar… dropping to a six-year low below 125 on Monday.” Some believe that level “raises alarm among Japanese authorities, as a previous drop to that level triggered verbal warnings by BOJ’s Kuroda.” However, in terms of the “real, effective exchange rate—an indicator that captures the international competitiveness of a currency,” the yen is performing even worse, having “slid to less than half” of 1995’s peak.
Tags: 1995, Alarm, Authorities, BOJ, Currency, Dollar, Effective exchange rate, Indicator, International competitiveness, Japan, Kuroda, Low, March, Verbal warnings, Yen
South China Morning Post (July 6)
As the U.S. and China begin to “spar over trade, Japan may avoid a direct hit – for now.” While the first round of tariffs is “expected to have limited impact,” the dispute “could lead to further appreciation of yen and punitive duties on Japanese cars” if it continues to spiral out of control.
Bloomberg (August 14)
“The last time Japan strung together this many quarters of growth was back in mid-2006…. The yen has fallen, corporate profits have soared and the economy is running above its potential growth rate. Yet inflation remains stubbornly low, despite massive monetary stimulus from the central bank. Economists are watching intently for signs that the tightest labor market in decades is beginning to bring wage gains.”
Tags: Central bank, Economists, Economy, Inflation, Japan. Growth, Labor market, Monetary stimulus, Profits, Wage gains, Yen
Financial Times (March 14)
The Japanese stock market resembles “the ghost ship Mary Celeste.” Strewn around the decks are signs that the ship should be hopping with activity: the Topix index at a 14-month high, identifiable value stocks in abundance, a comfortably-positioned yen, fresh legalisation of casinos in the bag and a run of record share buybacks…. And yet there is silence.” Volumes have been low during the last three weeks and “overseas investors have been net sellers…with up to Y78bn leaving the index.” This suggests little wind remains in the Abenomics sails and, quite possibly, that traders are cautious ahead of developments from the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. But it could also mean that overseas investors have written “Japan off as a credible, reform-minded play on global growth and domestic reflation.”
Tags: Abenomics, Buybacks, Casinos, Fed, Investors, Japan, Mary Celeste, Reflation, Topix, Trump Growth, Value stocks, Volumes, Yen
Financial Times (November 8)
Stung by the strong yen, over 100 TOPIX-listed manufacturers have issued profit warnings. Conventional cost cutting is no longer doing the trick. “After decades of building plants overseas and trying to make production leaner and more efficient to address the currency vulnerability, analysts say Japanese companies are facing a sobering reality: the urgency to sell underperforming businesses and join hands with rivals to survive brutal market conditions.”
Tags: Analysts, Cost cutting, Efficient, Japan, Leaner, Manufacturers, Overseas, Plants, Production, Profit warnings, Topix, Underperforming, Vulnerability, Yen
Bloomberg (October 5)
“Even though polls show a receding chance of Donald Trump becoming U.S. president, money managers wary of public opinion being proved wrong are increasingly looking toward Japan for an ideal hedge.” If Trump somehow pulls off a victory, it “could send cash flooding into the yen, which acts as a haven.”
Tags: Haven, Hedge, Japan, Money managers, Polls, President, Public opinion, Trump, U.S., Yen
