Reuters (April 1)
In March, the Japanese yen “lost around 8% against the dollar… dropping to a six-year low below 125 on Monday.” Some believe that level “raises alarm among Japanese authorities, as a previous drop to that level triggered verbal warnings by BOJ’s Kuroda.” However, in terms of the “real, effective exchange rate—an indicator that captures the international competitiveness of a currency,” the yen is performing even worse, having “slid to less than half” of 1995’s peak.
Tags: 1995, Alarm, Authorities, BOJ, Currency, Dollar, Effective exchange rate, Indicator, International competitiveness, Japan, Kuroda, Low, March, Verbal warnings, Yen
Financial Times (April 19)
“India’s currency has swung from emerging market leader to laggard as the country battles a ferocious wave of coronavirus infections, prompting concerns among global investors that a nascent economic recovery will crumble.” During Q1, the rupee was “the only emerging market currency to gain ground on the dollar.” Since April, it has plummeted 3%, “the worst performance” of its peers.
Tags: Coronavirus, Currency, Dollar, Economic recovery, Emerging market, Ferocious, India, Infections, Investors, Laggard, Leader, Nascent, Rupee, Worst
The Guardian (August 13)
“Forget doom-laden headlines, the dollar has not gone into terminal decline.” In fact, the dollar’s resiliency has been upheld even though “Donald Trump’s administration has done more than any in living memory to disrupt US trade” and has transformed the nation into an unreliable alliance partner. And yet, “the currency’s international role has not diminished significantly.” The simple truth is “there is no alternative. The euro is not an alternative…. Nor is the yuan a viable alternative.”
Tags: Alliance partner, Alternative, Currency, Decline, Diminished, Disrupt, Dollar, Doom, euro, Resiliency, Trade, Trump, U.S., Unreliable, Yuan
The Economist (January 18)
“America is weaponising its currency and financial system” like never before, but the “use of sanctions could endanger the dollar in the long term!” Other countries, both allies and enemies, increasingly view the Trump administration’s aggressive use of the dollar-based financial system “as an abuse of power.” Ultimately, this “may eventually lead to the demise of America’s financial hegemony, as other countries seek to dethrone its mighty currency.”
Tags: Abuse, Allies, Currency, Dollar, Enemies, Financial system, Hegemony, Sanctions, Trump, U.S., Weaponising
Washington Post (August 2)
“China’s state-driven economic model has created many problems. Monetary policy isn’t one of them.” On the heels of the Fed’s rate cut, the ECB “looks poised to follow suit in September” and “the temptation is high for other central banks to fall in line.” But often they’re “canceling out each other’s efforts,” which is one reason the dollar didn’t fall with the latest rate cut. “Developed nations play out what is a zero-sum game.” In the process, they’re “using up the ammunition they have available to support their economies in the event of a downturn.” In contrast, the PBOC has avoided playing the rate cut game and “China’s 10-year government bond yield is relatively unchanged since the end of 2018.”
Tags: Canceling out, China Economic model, Developed nations, Dollar, Downturn, ECB, Fed, Monetary policy, PBOC, Rate cut, Temptation, Zero-sum game
Investment Week (July 17)
“A ‘no deal’ Brexit could result in sterling falling to parity with the dollar,” according to Morgan Stanley. “Exiting the European Union without a deal looks increasingly likely.” In a “worst-case scenario” the pound, currently at $1.24, could plunge roughly 19% “to historic lows of $1-$1.10.”
Reuters (January 16)
“Nobody expected May’s Brexit deal to secure a majority. Nevertheless, the scale of the defeat—the worst for a British government in modern history—was startling…. It’s very unlikely the deal can be rescued.” In fact, investors seem to be signaling that “reversing the Brexit decision” is now more likely than “a chaotic exit…. The pound jumped 1.4 percent against the U.S. dollar immediately after the result was announced on Tuesday.”
Barrons (August 13)
“Turkey makes up less than 1% of the emerging markets index, but its small size hasn’t kept it from creating big ripples during the dog days of summer. Most investors are steering clear of Turkey, as it grapples with the fallout from years of binging on dollar-denominated debt, but the bigger question is who else could get caught up in Turkey’s crisis.”
Reuters (May 8)
“Hedge funds and speculators spent the first four months of the year betting heavily against the dollar. They’re now running for the hills. The increasingly rapid rate at which they’re slashing their short dollar positions is creating a vicious cycle.” Moreover, it looks like “this ‘pain trade’ has further to run because, historically, the overall short position remains large.”
Forbes (February 6)
“The dollar-euro exchange rate is the most important price in the world…. How so? These are two surpassingly large economic areas, and they trade and invest more than enough with each other—such that each imports the other’s entire relative price structure…. Change that exchange rate in a big way—a fifth is plenty big—and all sorts of new decisions will come in terms of where one plans to invest, produce, and sell.”
Tags: Dollar, euro, Exchange rate, Imports, Invest, Price structure, Produce, Sell, Trade
