BBC (November 3)
“The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years,” indicating that “the UK would face a ‘very challenging’ two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.” The BoE’s forecast paints “a picture of a painful economic period, with the UK performing worse than the US and the Eurozone.”
Tags: 2025, BOE, Challenging, Doubling, Forecast, Interest rates, Longest, Painful, Recession, Records, Slump, U.S., UK, Unemployment, Warned, Worse
Investment Week (August 23)
In early August, the Bank of England predicted “increased gas prices would cause inflation to rise above 13% by the end of the year.” The consensus is worse. “Goldman Sachs and EY forecast UK consumer price inflation would reach 15%, and Bank of America projected it would peak at 14% in January.” Citi bank has gone further and “riled markets” by forecasting “UK CPI to hit 18.6% in January… beating the 1979 peak when CPI hit 17.8% following the OPEC oil shock.” A recession looks all but inevitable.
Tags: Bank of America, BOE, Citi bank, Consensus, CPI, EY, Forecast, Gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, Markets, Oil shock, OPEC, Peak, Recession, UK
Investment Week (June 16)
“The industry has labelled the Bank of England a ‘timid cat’ following its interest rate rise of 0.25% in its bid to tackle inflation on Thursday (16 May), with many stating it was simply prolonging the time till they take the necessary action.” Following the 25-basis-point hike, UK interest rates stand at 1.25%, with the BoE expecting inflation “to peak at 11% in October.”
Tags: 0.25%, 1.25%, Action, BOE, Inflation, Interest rate, Necessary, October, Peak, Prolonging, Rise, Timid cat, UK
Reuters (April 20)
“A month after the London Metal Exchange (LME) suspended nickel transactions and cancelled trades amid an epic short squeeze, the Bank of England, the Financial Conduct Authority and the LME itself have launched reviews into what went wrong. They will need to substantially strengthen the world’s premier metal trading venue if it is to survive likely future turbulence.”
Tags: BOE, Cancelled, Financial Conduct Authority, LME, Metal, Nickel, Reviews, Short squeeze, Suspended, Trades, Transactions, Turbulence
Reuters (February 15)
“Brexit-supporting City figures hoping for a regulatory bonfire seem likely to be disappointed…. The BoE’s first deviation from EU law was to make the rules tighter, not looser. The supervisor also recently ruled out a big capital reduction for insurers. London may end up being smaller, but at least it will be safer.”
Tags: BOE, Brexit, Capital reduction, Deviation, Disappointed, EU law, Insurers, London, Looser, Regulatory, Rules, Safer, Smaller, Supervisor, Tighter
Reuters (April 29)
“There’s an end to everything except, apparently, central bankers’ creativity. Virus-damaged economies will need lots of help to heal, and more downturns are inevitable in the future. The monetary-policy bigwigs will keep coming up with more new ways to stimulate growth.” The Fed and BoE may “eventually overcome their aversion to negative interest rates” and/or “copy Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda’s yield-curve control policy of targeting specific levels for 10-year government bond yields.”
Tags: BOE, BOJ, Creativity, Damaged, Downturns, Economies, Fed, Growth, Heal, Kuroda, Monetary policy, Negative interest, Virus, Yield curve
Reuters (December 16)
With Mark Carney on the way out, the next Governor of the Bank of England will need to “believe in magic…. If all goes well, he or she will not only face the developed world’s current issues of stubbornly low inflation rates, easy credit and climate change. If Brexit also goes wrong, the new bank chief will also need some preternatural gifts.”
Tags: BOE, Carney, Climate change, Developed world, Easy credit, Governor, Inflation, Magic, UK
The Guardian (August 9)
“The era of low interest rates will last for at least another 20 years, despite gently rising official borrowing costs in the coming years, one of the Bank of England’s leading policymakers has forecast.” Outgoing monetary policy committee (MPC) member Ian McCafferty said that “structural changes in the global economy meant UK borrowers and savers should get used to interest rates being “significantly” below the 5% average in the 10 years leading up to the financial crisis.”
Tags: BOE, Borrowing, Costs, Era, Financial Crisis, Global economy, Interest rates, Low, MPC, Structural changes, UK
Investment Week (November)
The recent 0.25% increase “in interest rates announced by the Bank of England leaves us with no more clarity about the direction of monetary policy than we had before the micro-adjustment. Indeed, the increase raises rather more questions than it resolves.” The cut may simply reverse “the rather ill-judged post referendum cut,” Or it could be one off “nod to those worried about inflation becoming more embedded.” Or it could be “the start of a sequence that will see regular increases in rates along a path towards normalisation.”
Tags: Adjustment, BOE, Clarity, Direction, Inflation, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Normalisation, Referendum
Reuters (November 3)
“The Bank of England’s first rate rise in over a decade is for now at least a ‘one and done’ move, according to economists in a snap Reuters poll who said the next increase won’t come until after Brexit in March 2019.”
Tags: BOE, Brexit, Economists, Increase, One and done, Rate rise, Snap poll
