Wall Street Journal (November 26)
“Trump’s promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese imports on the first day of his presidency could lead to higher prices, just as the country appears to be turning a corner on inflation.” Economists at Yale’s Budget Lab calculated that these tariffs, combined with the three countries’ expected retaliatory measures, “would raise U.S. consumer prices by 0.75% next year,” which would “amount to more than $1000 in lost purchasing power per household.”
Tags: $1000, Canada, China, Consumer prices, Economists, Imports, Inflation, Mexico, Purchasing power, Retaliatory measures, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Yale
New York Times (October 31)
“As investors, economists and world leaders weigh the prospects of Donald Trump winning the election, one of their biggest questions is how he would potentially upend global trade.” It’s not just the threat of tariffs, but also measures like what the candidate refers to as the “Trump reciprocal trade act” through which he hopes to punish the European Union for “supposedly not buying enough American-made goods.”
Tags: Candidate, Economists, Election, Global trade, Investors, Prospects, Punish, Tariffs, Threat, Trump, Upend, World leaders
CNN (October 30)
“The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement.” James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is among the “economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off” a soft landing. “That scenario, in which inflation is tamed without a recession” would mark “an exceptionally rare achievement.”
Tags: Bullard, Economists, Economy, Fed, Historic, Inflation, Officials, Rare, Recession, Remarkable, Soft landing, St. Louis, Tamed, U.S.
Chicago Tribune (September 8)
Amidst the flood of steel from China, “Nippon Steel was well advised to look for ways to strengthen its hand” while “the U.S. Steel board of directors was free to approve the $14.9 billion acquisition offer, as they did in April.” Nippon Steel believes “the investment will revitalize American steel manufacturing and pay dividends in further industrial cooperation, and most economists, liberal and conservative, agree.” Unfortunately, the merger is being uprooted by politics.
Tags: $14.9 billion, Acquisition, Approve, China, Dividends, Economists, Investment, Manufacturing, Merger, Nippon Steel, Politics, U.S. Steel
Rolling Stone (September 4)
“Economic policy has become a centerpiece of both campaigns as Harris and Trump battle to win over anxious voters.” But Trump’s plan to “impose universal tariffs on all imported products” is not a hit with economists or Wall Street. Goldman Sachs has warned “that a victory by former President Donald Trump would likely lead to an economic downturn.” In contrast, the bank forecasts the Harris plan would provide a boost to GDP growth.
Tags: Boost, Campaigns, Centerpiece, Downturn, Economic policy, Economists, GDP growth, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Tariffs, Trump, Voters, Wall Street
Forbes (July 29)
“As central bank decisions go, the one Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will make this week may be the toughest in modern history.” He is faced with deciding “whether to break with 25 years of zero interest rates and 23 years of quantitative easing by putting a notable rate hike on the scoreboard…. Making matters worse, smart economists can make nuanced abstractions compelling arguments for taking any of the three doors sitting before him.”
Tags: 25 years, BOJ, Central bank, Decisions, Economists, Quantitative easing, Rate hike, Toughest, Ueda, Zero interest
Wall Street Journal (June 8-9)
“The recession, predicted by business executives, economists, and investors, refuses to show up. Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. Employers added 2.75 million jobs over the last 12 months,” with an unemployment rate “at or below 4% for 30 months, something that last occurred during the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and the Korean War in the early 1950s.”
Tags: Consumer spending, Economic expansion, Economists, Employers, Executives, Hiring, Investors, Predicted, Recession, U.S., Unemployment rate
New York Times (April 12)
“More economists are paring their bets that the Fed will cut rates after the latest Consumer Price Index report.” The new consensus of “higher-for-longer inflation… has hit the U.S. housing market like a thunderbolt. Home prices and mortgage rates are climbing again, dashing hopes that financing costs would fall this year and adding another economic question that could hang over the presidential election campaign.”
Tags: CPI, Economists, Fed, Financing costs, Home prices, Housing market, Inflation, Mortgage rates, Rates, U.S.
Forbes (February 9)
“Economists are struggling to put China’s epic $7 trillion stock crash in perspective. The best size and scope may be that, since 2021, the market has lost the combined gross domestic product of Japan and France.” But that’s not even the worst news out of China. Beijing is now “on the lookout for those disseminating negative views on China’s economic and market prospects. This chilling warning not to ‘denigrate China’s economy’ via ‘false narratives’ is Mao Zedong, not Adam Smith. And it raises troubling questions as China’s influence soars.”
Tags: $7 trillion, Adam Smith, Chilling warning, China, Denigrate, Economists, False narratives, France Disseminating, GDP, Influence, Japan, Mao Zedong, Negative views, Prospects, Stock crash, Troubling
Institutional Investor (February 1)
“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it expects to cut rates sometime this year,” though the first cut now looks likely to be delayed until at least May. “Still, most economists think that absent an inflation resurgence, the Fed is going to lower rates this year. Based on past rate cuts that have occurred before entering a recession, the two most likely outcomes are: “no recession and a strong bull market… or a recession and a bust for the Fed.”
Tags: Bull market, Bust, Delayed, Economists, Fed, inflation resurgence, May, Outcomes, Rate cuts, Recession
