Bloomberg (July 22)
“China has increasingly relied on third countries for the manufacturing of final products or components,” which has softened the blow of the tariff war. If, however, Trump succeeds “in targeting transshipments via higher levies or supply chain requirements, it would threaten 70% of China’s exports to the US and more than 2.1% of the Asian country’s gross domestic product,” with “a risk of additional economic damage if the restrictions weigh on countries’ desire to do business with China.”
Tags: China, Components, Economic damage, Exports, Final products, GDP, Levies, Manufacturing, Relied, Supply chain requirements, Tariff war, Threaten, Transshipments, Trump, U.S.
Investment Week (July 11)
The UK was the “fastest growing G7 economy in Q1 2025, but this memory now seems distant. “Industry professionals have reacted with disappointment to the latest monthly UK GDP figures for May, which showed the economy contracted by 0.1%,” following on top of April’s 0.3% decline. Production output tumbled, “falling by 0.9% after an unchanged fall of 0.6% in April, while the construction sector dipped by 0.6% in May from a 0.8% growth the month before.”
Tags: April, Construction, Contracted, Decline, Disappointment, Fastest-growing, G7 economy, GDP, May, Output, Production, Q1 2025, Tumbled, UK
CNN (May 1)
“Another day, another piece of evidence that President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with friends and foes is hurting the global economy. Today: Japan’s central bank cut its economic growth forecast for the country in half.” The Bank of Japan “lowered its expectations for 2025 gross domestic product growth to an anemic 0.5%, down from the previous projection of +1.1%, made in January.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Anemic, BOJ, Economic growth, Escalating, Evidence, Expectations, Foes, Forecast, Friends, GDP, Global economy, Hurting, Japan, Trade war, Trump
Barron’s (April 23)
“The global debt situation is raising alarms for the International Monetary Fund, which on Wednesday said ‘off-the-charts’ trade uncertainty was exacerbating a global debt load that it estimates crossed the $100 trillion level in 2024.” Current IMF projections call for “levels to rise further, with debt to global gross domestic product hitting 100% by the end of the decade,” but worldwide public debt “could soar to around 117% of GDP by 2027” in an extreme “adverse scenario,” though noting, “even that extreme scenario may be underestimating tail risk because trade and geoeconomic uncertainty has escalated, financial conditions have tightened, financial market volatility is visible and spending pressures have intensified.”
Tags: $100 trillion, 2024, Adverse scenario, Alarms, Exacerbating, GDP, Geoeconomic Financial conditions, Global debt, IMF, Market volatility, Off-the-charts, Spending pressures, Tail risk, Trade uncertainty, Underestimating
Barron’s (February 6)
“Of all Trump’s potential trade war targets, Mexico is by far the most vulnerable, with exports to the U.S. close to a quarter of gross domestic product. China’s figure is less than 3%.” But Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, a relative political novice, “taught a master class on how to play a weak hand.” She “deftly handled Donald Trump” while maintaining approval (at nearly 80%) at home.
Tags: Approval, China, Deftly, Exports, GDP, Mexico, Novice, Sheinbaum, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Vulnerable
Barron’s (December 23)
Brazil ends 2024 in a paradox. The economy is strong with GDP expected to “reach 3% for the third year running. Unemployment is at a record low and the trade surplus at an all-time high.” Nevertheless, “markets are awful.” Investors appear to be “looking past the healthy present to a recurrence of Brazil’s chronic economic disease: excessive government spending that spurs runaway inflation and crowds out growth with debt payments.”
Tags: 2024, Brazil, Chronic, Debt payments, Economy, GDP, Government spending, Growth, Investors, Markets, Paradox, Recurrence, Runaway inflation, Trade surplus, Unemployment
Financial Times (December 10)
“Global public debt is set to exceed $100tn by the end of this year” according to IMF estimates, “with total government borrowing set to approach 100 per cent of global GDP by the end of the decade.” This development led the outgoing chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements to warn that “rising government debt levels will cause turbulence in the global economy and financial markets unless political leaders start tackling them soon.”
Tags: $100tn, BIS, Borrowing, Chief economist, Debt levels, Economy, Financial markets, GDP, Global, Government, IMF, Political leaders, Public debt, Turbulence
Investment Week (August 15)
“The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter, following an increase of 0.7% in the previous three months.” Year over year, “gross domestic product expanded by 0.9% from April to June…. The figures confirm that the economy has enjoyed a strong recovery from its mild technical recession last year.”
Tags: 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.9%, Economy, Expanded, GDP, Grew, Q1, Q2, Strong recovery, Technical recession, UK
Straits Times (July 15)
“Thailand’s decades-long manufacturing-driven economic model is broken.” The nation “has witnessed nearly 2,000 factory closures in the last year, upending its manufacturing sector that contributes nearly a quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP).” The main drivers appear to be “cheap imports from China and a slide in industrial competitiveness due to factors including rising energy prices and an ageing workforce.”
Tags: Ageing workforce, Broken, Cheap imports, China, Economic model, Energy prices, Factory closures, GDP, Industrial competitiveness, Manufacturing, Thailand
Washington Post (May 28)
“Nearly everything Americans believe about the economy is wrong.” A recent poll revealed that dire “perceptions of the U.S. economy are often at odds with reality.” In fact, “the U.S. economy has been growing consistently for nearly two years, even after accounting for inflation” and is “exceeding growth expectations” across most benchmarks. “The U.S. economy has been outperforming other advanced economies. We’re also doing better than pre-pandemic forecasts had situated us by now, both in terms of gross domestic product and the number of jobs out there. This generally isn’t true elsewhere in the world.”
Tags: Benchmarks, Economy, Expectations, GDP, Growing, Inflation, Outperforming, Perceptions, Poll, Pre-pandemic, Reality, U.S., Wrong
