Barron’s (January 3)
“Of all the fearless forecasts put out there for the new year, one conspicuously missing from those lists is probably the easiest one: The United States of America will lose its last remaining triple-A credit rating.” Standard & Poor’s was the first to lower its rating on U.S. government debt in 2011. In 2023, “Fitch Ratings followed suit.” That November, Moody’s Investors Service “lowered its outlook to negative.” It seems inevitable, especially given Trump’s desire for tax cuts, that Moody’s will eventually lower its Aaa rating as well. “Given the lack of serious measures, so far, to slow the government debt growth, the U.S.A. doesn’t merit a triple-A rating.”
Tags: 2011, 2023, Credit rating, Fearless, Fitch, Forecasts, Government debt, Inevitable, Lower, Merit, Moody's, Negative, Outlook, Rating, S&P, Tax cuts, Triple-A, Trump, U.S.
U.S. News and World Report (December 30)
“The past two years have defied economists’ predictions for a slowing economy, or even a recession.” Despite increased risk and uncertainty arising from the “wild card of Trump,” the U.S. economy “should remain strong” as it is buoyed by “a moderating labor market, lower interest rates and strong household income.” Household wealth has surged 40% to $150 trillion since 2020, “while debt service payments measured as a percentage of income have largely remained static.”
Tags: Defied, Economy, Household income, Interest rates, Labor market, Predictions, Recession, Risk, Slowing Economy, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, Wealth Debt service, Wild card
IPE Real Assets (December Issue)
“There is now a virtual universal consensus amongst economists. The US has successfully navigated a soft landing and its growth outlook is the brightest of all the G7 economies. In December, the OECD published a forecast of 2.4% GDP growth for the US in 2025, versus 1.3% for the eurozone and just 0.7% for Germany. Some even suggest it is an underestimate.”
Tags: 2025, Consensus, Economists, eurozone, Forecast, G7 economies, GDP growth, Germany, Growth outlook, Navigated, OECD, Soft landing, U.S., Underestimate
Reuters (December 23)
“EU industries pay power prices 2-3 times higher than those in the U.S. Taxes made up, on average, 23% of the retail electricity price paid by Europe’s energy-intensive firms in 2023.” In addition, energy-intensive industries face “a more fragmented market than China and difficult access to credit.” Lowering taxes might be a way for policymakers “to offer fast relief” to industry.
Tags: China, Credit, Energy-intensive, EU, Fragmented market, Higher, Industry, Policymakers, Power prices, Relief, Retail electricity, Taxes, U.S.
New York Times (December 13)
Venture capital (VC) stands at a cross roads as firms adopt opposing paths. The “industry that funds and fosters American innovation” is undergoing “a profound debate” about its future. Some funds are remaining true to the lean, traditional VC model of infusing capital and not much else. Others are adopting a “bigger-is-better” approach in the belief that “even more money is needed to solve society’s thorniest problems with innovation. Small funds, they scoff, can back only small ideas.”
Tags: Bigger-is-better, Capital, Debate, Future, Innovation, Lean, Money, Society, Thorniest problems, Traditional, U.S., Venture-capital
The Economist (December 11)
“Since America elected Donald Trump as president on November 5th, the value of its listed firms has increased by $4.2trn, more than the entire worth of London’s stockmarket. The S&P 500 is up by nearly 30% this year. At 23 times its forward earnings, the index has rarely been so highly rated by investors.”
Tags: $4.2trn, 23x, Forward earnings, Index, Investors, Listed firms, London, President, S&P 500, Stockmarket, Trump, U.S., Value
Wall Street Journal (December 6)
“Better productivity growth has helped the U.S. power past similar economies such as the European Union’s and Canada’s…. Over the past five years, quarterly year-over-year productivity growth has averaged 2.1%, a sharp improvement from growth over the 10 years prior.” This “critical development… has allowed for strong economic output and declining inflation, even as the labor market cools.”
Tags: 2.1%, Canada, declining inflation, Economic output, Economies, EU, Improvement, Labor market, Power, Productivity growth, Strong, U.S.
Financial Times (December 3)
“America’s economy is soaring ahead of its rivals,” and its “outperformance is rooted in long-term productivity growth that is the envy of the developed world.” Many of these productivity gains are coming from tech investments. “China is the only other large economy making significant strides in tech R&D spending…. the amount of venture capital invested in AI in China is now the second highest globally after the US.”
Tags: AI, China, Developed world, Economy, Envy, Investments, Outperformance, Productivity growth, R&D spending, Rivals, Soaring, Tech, U.S., VC
Wall Street Journal (November 26)
“Trump’s promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese imports on the first day of his presidency could lead to higher prices, just as the country appears to be turning a corner on inflation.” Economists at Yale’s Budget Lab calculated that these tariffs, combined with the three countries’ expected retaliatory measures, “would raise U.S. consumer prices by 0.75% next year,” which would “amount to more than $1000 in lost purchasing power per household.”
Tags: $1000, Canada, China, Consumer prices, Economists, Imports, Inflation, Mexico, Purchasing power, Retaliatory measures, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Yale
South China Morning Post (November 14)
“China’s trade with Russia is set to hit new highs this year as payment barriers have been partly addressed in recent months, but analysts warned that US president-elect Donald Trump’s return could be accompanied with more hits to bilateral trade.” Continuing financial sanctions are another potential complication to “Russia’s efforts to sell products to China.”
Tags: Analysts, Bilateral trade, China, Financial sanctions, Highs, Payment barriers, Russia, Trade, Trump, U.S.
