The Economist (July 6)
“Good economic news has begun to fall on Britain like drops of rain in the midst of a drought. The country is parched: revisions to GDP estimates released last week suggest that output is still 3.9% lower than its 2008 peak, a worse performance than any other G20 country except Italy. As confidence returns, it seems almost impolite to point out that the British economy still has a sickly core of weak investment, productivity and wages, and that hard policy decisions lie ahead.”
Tags: Confidence, Economy, G20, GDP, Investment, Italy, Output, Productivity, UK, Wages
Institutional Investor (June issue)
“Optimism is beginning to infect Japan’s corporate leaders–a crucial factor considering that the new policies must spur corporate investment and expansion if they are to succeed in fostering a sustainable economic turnaround.” Corporate leaders have welcomed Abenomics, but the jury is still out. “Corporate Japan will consider the new government successful if it can end the psychology of deflation and stagnation and offer the prospect of renewed growth. So far, business leaders are fairly optimistic.”
Tags: Corporate leaders, Deflation, Expansion, Government, Investment, Japan, Optimism, Psychology, Stagnation
Financial Times (June 24)
“It is too early to say, but with the credit intensity of China’s slowing economic growth surging back this year to levels last seen in the 2009 credit boom, a severe credit squeeze could precipitate a big drop in investment, accentuate the downturn in growth and lead to financial and banking sector instability.”
Tags: Banking, Boom, China, Credit, Downturn, Economic growth, Instability, Investment, Squeeze
New York Times (June 10)
“Those who see Japan’s performance over the last decades as an unmitigated failure have too narrow a conception of economic success. Along many dimensions—greater income equality, longer life expectancy, lower unemployment, greater investments in children’s education and health, and even greater productivity relative to the size of the labor force—Japan has done better than the United States. It may have quite a lot to teach us. If Abenomics is even half as successful as its advocates hope, it will have still more to teach us.”
Tags: Abenomics, Children, Economic success, Income equality, Investment, Japan, Labor force, Life expectancy, Productivity, U.S., Unemployment
Institutional Investor (February Issue)
“Talk of currency wars is once again in the air, making foreign exchange potentially a major component of investment returns.” Last year, “the dollar underperformed all major currencies except the yen.” In 2013, the Norwegian krone, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are likely to benefit if the dollar’s slide continues.
Tags: Australia, Currency, Dollar, Forex, Investment, Krone, New Zealand, Norway, U.S., Yen
Wall Street Journal (May 30)
“Flush with cash and bolstered by a strong currency, Japanese companies are in the midst of the biggest boom in overseas investment the country has ever seen.” At home, earnings are threatened by the shrinking domestic market, uncertain electric supply, disrupted supply chains, and weak domestic economy. In the past, “Japanese mergers-and-acquisitions booms sometimes focused on trophy properties with little regard to value.” Today’s boom is driven by value and “powered by fear.”
“Flush with cash and bolstered by a strong currency, Japanese companies are in the midst of the biggest boom in overseas investment the country has ever seen.” At home, earnings are threatened by the shrinking domestic market, uncertain electric supply, disrupted supply chains, and weak domestic economy. In the past, “Japanese mergers-and-acquisitions booms sometimes focused on trophy properties with little regard to value.” Today’s boom is driven by value and “powered by fear.”
Bloomberg (February 4)
Japan is no longer the belle of the global investment ball, but not everyone’s counting her out. At a price-to-book value of 1.1, the Topix is trading at roughly half of 2006 levels. The Topix looks even cheaper compared to the S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio of 2.3. Balance sheets are generally strong and many are poised to prosper on growing demand from China. Goldman Sachs expects “corporate profits in Japan this year will approach 2007 highs.” Deutsche Bank is forecasting returns exceeding 20% for Japanese stocks in the first half of 2011 alone.
Japan is no longer the belle of the global investment ball, but not everyone’s counting her out. At a price-to-book value of 1.1, the Topix is trading at roughly half of 2006 levels. The Topix looks even cheaper compared to the S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio of 2.3. Balance sheets are generally strong and many are poised to prosper on growing demand from China. Goldman Sachs expects “corporate profits in Japan this year will approach 2007 highs.” Deutsche Bank is forecasting returns exceeding 20% for Japanese stocks in the first half of 2011 alone.
Tags: Deutsche Bank, Equity, Goldman Sachs, Investment, Japan
