Barron’s (June 17)
President Trump inked an Iran Deal that “leaves more questions than answers.” While traders are “optimistic that one way or another, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil will resume its prewar flows,” their optimism is not shared by many analysts. “Oil analysts remain skeptical as to how soon, if ever, shipping will resume through the strait at prewar levels. That’s in part because it is unclear if Iran’s agreement not to charge tolls for 60 days, as stated in the memo, will become permanent.”
Tags: Analysts, Iran Deal, Oil, Optimistic, Permanent, Prewar flows, Questions, Reopen, Resume, Shipping, Skeptical, Strait of Hormuz, Tolls, Traders, Trump
Barron’s (May 19)
“Bond markets haven’t been swayed by President Donald Trump’s latest assurances on the war with Iran, with yields holding stubbornly higher” and impacting the broader economy. “Elevated bond yields are contributing to rising inflation, with April producer inflation at its highest since December 2022, challenging growth investments.” It appears “the bond market is forcing a reckoning Trump isn’t able to stop.”
Tags: April, Assurances, Bond markets, Broader economy, Elevated, Growth investments, Iran, Producer inflation, Reckoning, Rising inflation, Swayed, Trump, War, Yields
The Economist (May 18)
“Since Donald Trump took office in January last year, America’s economy has continued to be the envy of the rich world. In 2025, while Britain, France and Japan eked out annual GDP growth of 1%, give or take, and Germany all but stood still, American output grew by 2.1%.” That growth could have been far more impressive. The Economist calculates that without the drag created by “fitful presidential policymaking,” the U.S. “might be rocketing ahead at nearly 5% annualised growth.”
Tags: 2025, 5%, Drag, Economy, Envy, Fitful, France, GDP growth, Germany, Japan, Policymaking, Rich world, Trump, U.S., UK
Wall Street Journal (May 16)
By one measure, President Trump’s Beijing summit “was a success. It didn’t achieve much, but it also didn’t appear to give away anything notable.” The caveat is that “we can’t be sure based on the few details leaking out from the parties,” some of which sound incredible. “Mr. Trump boasted about ‘fantastic’ Chinese purchases to come of U.S. soybeans and aircraft. But China didn’t confirm the sales, and by our count this is the second time China has bought the same American soybeans. Or is it the third?” In addition, Mr. Trump “also didn’t appear to bend to Mr. Xi’s threats on Taiwan, at least not so far.” If, however, Trump gives into China and “stops arming Taiwan, Mr. Xi will have won the veto over U.S. sales that the Chinese leader has long sought. It will send a message of weakness to our allies in the region.” Details like this, should they out, would make it a misnomer to call this “The Good-News-Is-No-News Summit.”
Tags: Aircraft, Allies, Arming, Beijing summit, Caveat. Leaking. Incredible. Fantastic, China, Misnomer, Purchases, Sales, Soybeans, Success, Taiwan, Threats, Trump, U.S., Veto, Weakness, Xi
New York Times (May 8)
“A grinding war in Iran has so severely drained American firepower that Chinese analysts are openly questioning Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan. That shifting calculus threatens to undercut President Trump’s leverage in his high-stakes summit next week with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.”
Tags: Ability, Analysts, China, Defend, Drained, Firepower, Grinding, High stakes, Iran, Leverage, Questioning, Summit, Taiwan, Threatens, Trump, U.S., Undercut, War
Financial Times (May 7)
“US fuel exports have surged to a record level as Europe and Asia lean on American energy supplies to make up for the shortfalls caused by the war in Iran.” Last week, America exported over “8.2mn barrels a day of refined fuels including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel,” a year-on-year increase exceeding 20%. Last week’s “huge demand for US energy” also transformed America into “a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since the second world war.” While this provides “a windfall” to US energy companies, “it also risks a political backlash for President Donald Trump as domestic pump prices rise.”
Tags: 20%, 8.2mn bbl, Asia, Backlash, Crude oil, Demand, Diesel, Energy, Europe, Exports, Fuel, Gasoline, Iran, Jet fuel, Record, Shortfalls, Surged, Trump, U.S., War, Windfall
New York Times (April 29)
“Trump appears to be miscalculating yet again, believing that his blockade and economic pressure on Iran will succeed where his bombings failed…. Two months into the war, Iran and the United States each seems to feel it is in the stronger position. Faced with the prospect of making concessions to the other side, each may prefer to delay or escalate, with the world economy held hostage.”
Tags: Blockade, Bombings, Concessions, Delay, Economic pressure, Escalate, Failed, Iran, Miscalculating, Stronger, Succeed, Trump, U.S., War, World economy
Bloomberg (April 25)
“The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.” The IEA believes “global oil demand is on track to slump the most in five years this month.” Things will surely get worse. “A billion barrels of supply loss is already all-but guaranteed — more than double the emergency inventories that governments released” since the conflict began. “With a stalemate between US President Donald Trump and his Iranian adversaries dragging on, the impact is increasingly shifting west — and to products that are central to consumers’ everyday lives.”
Tags: Adversaries, Alarm, Billion barrels, Conflict, Crash, Demand, Emergency inventories, Harsh, IEA, Impact, Iran, Oil shock, Rich world, Slump, Stalemate, Strait of Hormuz, Supply, Traders, Trump
Fortune (April 14)
“The White House promised a manufacturing renaissance. Instead, the factory floor keeps shrinking…. During Trump’s first year back in the White House, the manufacturing sector alone shed 108,000 jobs—even as the administration touted a coming ‘manufacturing boom.’” The trajectory has not improved. As of this March, there have been about 150,000 net job losses per year in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Tags: 150k, Construction, Factory floor, Job losses, Manufacturing, Manufacturing boom, Renaissance, Shrinking, Trump, White House
Wall Street Journal (April 13)
“It’s still too soon for a verdict on President Trump’s ‘excursion’ in the Middle East…. But it isn’t too soon to offer a tentative judgment on the president’s biggest foreign-policy action to date: ill-conceived, ill-planned, ill-executed and, so far, failing.”
Tags: Excursion, Failing, Foreign policy, Ill-conceived, Ill-executed, Ill-planned, Middle East, Tentative judgment, Too soon, Trump, Verdict
