MarketWatch (November 21)
“Developments in Japan are now creating the risk that U.S. yields could rise alongside Japan’s yields.” Amid budget concerns over proposed fiscal stimulus, yields on JGBs “hit their highest levels in almost two decades, with the country’s 10-year rate spiking above 1.78% to its highest level in more than 17 years” while 40-year yields “climbed to an all-time high just above 3.7%.” Since Japan “is the biggest foreign holder of Treasurys, with a roughly 13% share… the concern is that the country’s investors might one day pull the rug by keeping more of their savings at home.”
Tags: 1.78%, 3.7%, Budget, Developments, Fiscal stimulus, Investors, Japan, JGBs, Risk, Savings, Treasurys, U.S., Yields
New York Times (November 18)
UBS expects “the global A.I. capex tally” will “hit $423 billion this year…and reach $1.3 trillion by 2030.” But Big Tech’s “debt-fueled spending spree” is raising concern. “Not long ago, huge investment pledges pushed the A.I. rally to new heights. But the need to borrow so many billions is beginning to rattle stock and bond investors.” For example, “shares in Oracle, and some of if its bonds, have sold off sharply in the past month in a sign of investors’ growing concerns about its long-term A.I. financing plan.”
Tags: $1.3 trillion, $423 billion, 2030, A.I., Big tech, Bond, Borrow, CAPEX, Debt-fueled, Financing, Investors, Oracle, Shares, Spending spree, Stock, UBS
Financial Times (November 15)
“The longest ever US government shutdown has created an unprecedented blind spot over the health of the world’s biggest economy as critical data reports are set to be delayed or ditched.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and other agencies “were largely unable to collect and publish data during the 43-day shutdown, creating a gap in statistical series that will obscure the economic picture for investors and policymakers.”
Tags: Agencies, Blind spot, BLS, Collect, Data, Delayed, Economy, Gap, Government, Investors, Longest, Obscure, Publish, Reports, Shutdown, Statistical series, U.S.
Barron’s (November 10)
“The longest government shutdown on record may be nearing its conclusion, and U.S. stocks are likely to claw back a big chunk of last week’s decline.” But end of the shutdown is “a band-aid, not a cure” for markets. “The long, and likely volatile path to reopening the federal government…will only mask the major issues investors are grappling with heading into the final weeks of the trading year, and the stock market could break in either direction once some of those questions are addressed.”
Tags: Band-aid, Cure, Decline, Government, Investors, Longest, Record, Shutdown, Stock market, Stocks, Trading, U.S., Volatile
The Ecoomist (October 13)
Politicians, economists, investors and others have long argued whether China’s economy is “a bubble waiting to burst” or “a sustainable success.” The argument is shifting, however, as “a new debate is now emerging, which is potentially far nastier. Much of the world falls into one camp: admiring China’s accomplishments, but also reeling from a deluge of Chinese exports. In the other camp is China, utterly convinced of the rightness of its economic model.”
Tags: Accomplishments, Admiring, Argument, Bubble, Burst, China, Convinced, Debate, Deluge, Economists, Economy, Emerging, Exports, Investors, Nastier, Politicians, Reeling, Rightness, Success, Sustainable
Barron’s (October 1)
“Like the Y2K disaster or the widespread invasion of murder hornets, the highly anticipated September curse failed to materialize this year. The question is whether or not a rough patch has been avoided or simply delayed. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite recorded their best Septembers since 2010.” Still, some analysts and investors worry that the issues that worried them “before haven’t been resolved, even as investor complacency seems to suggest that they have been.”
Tags: 2010, Analysts, Avoided, Delayed, Highly anticipated, Invasion, Investors, Materialize, Nasdaq, Rough patch, S&P 500, September curse, Worry, Y2K disaster
Washington Post (September 20)
“Although investors cheered the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and the stock market has kept powering along, the economy is facing growing headwinds on one crucial front — consumer spending,” which is “faltering.” Even upper income consumers “are being more strategic about when to make big purchases, buying in bulk and shopping at cheaper retailers,” but the “shift is most pronounced among lower-income consumers, who are disproportionately vulnerable to rising prices and other economic pressures eroding their purchasing power.”
Tags: Bulk, Consumer spending, Economic pressures, Economy, Faltering, Fed, Headwinds, Investors, Lower-income, Rate cut, Retailers, Rising prices, Stock market, Upper income, Vulnerable
Investment Week (September 12)
“Over the summer, the FTSE 100, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Japan’s main equity indices enjoyed record highs. Usually, you would think that this was great news…. But, instead, investors are pouring out of funds, as the background noise ratchets up ever higher.” Investor confidence has tumbled “across all global markets, with the biggest hit coming in North America.”
Tags: Confidence, Equity indices, FTSE 100, Funds, Global markets, Investors, Japan, Nasdaq, Noise, North America, S&P 500, Tumbled
Fortune (August 27)
“Investors are underestimating the inflation risk of President Trump’s tariffs, which will push up import costs,” concludes analyst Henry Allen of Deutsche Bank. “One indicator forecasts that U.S. inflation may soon exceed 4%. Consumers are also expecting higher prices. But the inflation swaps market has yet to reflect these risks.”
Tags: 4%, Allen, Analyst, Consumers, Deutsche Bank, Forecasts, Higher prices, Import costs, Indicator, Inflation, Investors, Risk, Trump’s tariffs, U.S., Underestimating
Bloomberg (August 24)
“China’s economy is being strained by US tariffs and a deep-rooted property crisis, yet stocks are extending their bull run — a disconnect that’s stirring doubts on the rally’s staying power. In just the past month, onshore stocks have added almost a trillion dollars to their market value, the Shanghai Composite Index has hit a decade-high and the CSI 300 Index has taken its advance from this year’s low to more than 20%. That’s when nearly every recent economic indicator — from consumption trends, home prices to inflation — has brought red flags for investors.”
Tags: Bull run, China, Consumption trends, CSI 300, Disconnect, Doubts, Economic indicator, Economy, Home prices, Inflation, Investors, Market value, Property crisis, Rally, Red flags, Shanghai, Staying power, Stocks, US tariffs
