MarketWatch (February 18)
In the U.S., “home-builder confidence plunged to the lowest level in five months as concerns over tariffs and how they could raise the cost of housing weighed on the industry.” According to the National Association of Home Builders, its “monthly confidence index fell five points to 42 in February…. a significant change in sentiment among home builders” who are increasingly being spooked by Trump’s tariffs and rising material costs. “For buyers, the sentiment shift only adds to the likelihood that home prices could go up in an already expensive housing market.”
Tags: Buyers, Confidence, Confidence index, Home builders, Housing market, Material costs, Plunged, Sentiment, Spooked, Tariffs, Trump, U.S.
The Economist (February 8 Issue)
“If dealmaking means threatening catastrophe in order to win small gains, then Donald Trump is the master of the art.” Despite the collective sigh of relief when he suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico in return for “some old promises,” the story is not necessarily over: “Donald Trump could still blow up global trade.” There is a real chance that “ideology, complacent markets and a need for revenue may still lead to big tariffs.”
Tags: Canada, Catastrophe, Complacent, Dealmaking, Global trade, Ideology, Mexico, Promises, Relief, Small gains, Tariffs, Threatening, Trump
Washington Post (February 5)
“Freaked out by the prospect of a plunging stock market, President Donald Trump backed off his plan to slap 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. He covered up his retreat with the assertion that his threat had prodded America’s neighbors into sending resources to combat drug trafficking at its borders — something, it turns out, they were already doing.”
Tags: 25%, Borders, Canada, Drug trafficking, Freaked out, Mexico, Plunging, Retreat, Stock market, Tariffs, Threat, Trump
Institutional Investor (January 28)
“With Trump once again using tariffs as a key tool in his trade policy, investors are bracing for renewed volatility,” especially given the “frantic pace of changes.” Some investors, however, “remain optimistic about Trump’s potential economic impact.” For example, “KKR’s Henry McVey believes that strong markets and robust corporate earnings will offset any geopolitical risks and tensions.”
Tags: Corporate earnings. Geopolitical risks, Economic impact, Frantic, Investors, KKR, Markets, McVey, Optimistic, Tariffs, Tensions, Tool, Trade policy, Trump, Volatility
Bloomberg (January 26)
“Oil fell as President Donald Trump imposed his first set of sanctions and tariffs in a move that highlighted risks to the global economy and to trade.” U.S. tariffs and other sanctions have now been imposed on Columbia, and the Trump “administration has also threatened actions on flows of goods from a host of other nations, including Canada and China.” On top of that economic uncertainty, Trump is advocating for “OPEC to bring down prices, potentially raising the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine.”
Tags: Canada, China, Columbia, Global economy, Oil, OPEC, Prices, Risks, Russia, Sanctions, Tariffs, Threat, Trade, Trump, U.S., Uncertainty, War
Foreign Affairs (January 14)
“America’s China strategy is incomplete.” Success will require “a full suite of economic incentives, public-private partnerships, and investment and trade deals to reduce the United States’ and its partners’ reliance on China.” The good news is that U.S. partners are “concerned about Chinese influence themselves” and “eager to work with Washington.” This means Trump’s second term could potentially “supercharge the global shift away from dependence on Chinese supply, bolstering the U.S. economy and enhancing U.S. national security” if he can effectively leverage “economic tools beyond tariffs.”
Tags: China, Eager, Economic incentives, Global shift, Influence, Investment, National security, Public-private partnerships, Reliance, Strategy, Tariffs, Trade deals, U.S.
Barron’s (December 2)
“Japan was conspicuously not mentioned” in tariffs Trump has specified for countries including China. This leaves some “wondering if China has become the new Japan and Japan is the new China.” Will China’s “economy stagnate over a sustained period, like Japan’s did for decades, and become a market to avoid?” In contrast, “Japan has shown signs of life lately. It’s viewed favorably by the new administration…. Does that mean the land of the rising sun is once again on the rise?”
Tags: Avoid, China, Conspicuously, Economy, Favorably, Japan, Market, New administration, Rising sun, Stagnate, Tariffs, Trump
Washington Post (November 30)
“After years of tumult in the housing market, builders across the country are betting that looser regulations and what they hope will be an economic boom will make it easier to build and sell. They’re also hoping those tailwinds more than offset possible hazards of Trump’s agenda, including ramped-up tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China that could push up costs for materials, and aggressive immigration policies that could mean the deportations of construction workers.”
Tags: Build and sell, Builders, Canada, China, Construction, Deportations, Economic boom, Hazards, Housing market, Immigration, Materials, Mexico, Regulations, Tailwinds, Tariffs, Trump, Tumult, Workers
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
Wall Street Journal (November 26)
“Trump’s promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese imports on the first day of his presidency could lead to higher prices, just as the country appears to be turning a corner on inflation.” Economists at Yale’s Budget Lab calculated that these tariffs, combined with the three countries’ expected retaliatory measures, “would raise U.S. consumer prices by 0.75% next year,” which would “amount to more than $1000 in lost purchasing power per household.”
Tags: $1000, Canada, China, Consumer prices, Economists, Imports, Inflation, Mexico, Purchasing power, Retaliatory measures, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Yale
