Barron’s (December 2)
“Japan was conspicuously not mentioned” in tariffs Trump has specified for countries including China. This leaves some “wondering if China has become the new Japan and Japan is the new China.” Will China’s “economy stagnate over a sustained period, like Japan’s did for decades, and become a market to avoid?” In contrast, “Japan has shown signs of life lately. It’s viewed favorably by the new administration…. Does that mean the land of the rising sun is once again on the rise?”
Tags: Avoid, China, Conspicuously, Economy, Favorably, Japan, Market, New administration, Rising sun, Stagnate, Tariffs, Trump
Washington Post (November 30)
“After years of tumult in the housing market, builders across the country are betting that looser regulations and what they hope will be an economic boom will make it easier to build and sell. They’re also hoping those tailwinds more than offset possible hazards of Trump’s agenda, including ramped-up tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China that could push up costs for materials, and aggressive immigration policies that could mean the deportations of construction workers.”
Tags: Build and sell, Builders, Canada, China, Construction, Deportations, Economic boom, Hazards, Housing market, Immigration, Materials, Mexico, Regulations, Tailwinds, Tariffs, Trump, Tumult, Workers
New York Times (November 27)
“The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer,” but is now “front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.” Trump’s “latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be”. Since he vowed “to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico…analysts have been gaming out the potential impact.” It could be an opening gambit of little consequence, but “economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.”
Tags: Bottlenecks, Canada, China, Costs, Crackdown, Fed, Immigration, Inflation, Interest rates, Investors, Markets, Mexico, Risk, Supply chains, Tariffs, Tax cuts, Trade war, Trumponomics, Uncertain
Wall Street Journal (November 26)
“Trump’s promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese imports on the first day of his presidency could lead to higher prices, just as the country appears to be turning a corner on inflation.” Economists at Yale’s Budget Lab calculated that these tariffs, combined with the three countries’ expected retaliatory measures, “would raise U.S. consumer prices by 0.75% next year,” which would “amount to more than $1000 in lost purchasing power per household.”
Tags: $1000, Canada, China, Consumer prices, Economists, Imports, Inflation, Mexico, Purchasing power, Retaliatory measures, Tariffs, Trump, U.S., Yale
Reuters (November 18)
“Renowned China hawks” like Robert Lighthizer, Mike Walz and Marco Rubio “are not the names Beijing wants popping up in President-elect Donald Trump’s early cabinet appointments. Markets agree, as the yuan has fallen about 2% against the dollar since Trump’s victory at the polls.” If Trump “follows through on threats to raise American tariffs on imports from China to as much as 60%” there will be more “downward pressure.”
Tags: Appointments, Cabinet, China, Dollar, Hawks, Imports, Lighthizer, Markets, Rubio, Tariffs, Threats, Trump, Walz, Yuan
New York Times (October 31)
“As investors, economists and world leaders weigh the prospects of Donald Trump winning the election, one of their biggest questions is how he would potentially upend global trade.” It’s not just the threat of tariffs, but also measures like what the candidate refers to as the “Trump reciprocal trade act” through which he hopes to punish the European Union for “supposedly not buying enough American-made goods.”
Tags: Candidate, Economists, Election, Global trade, Investors, Prospects, Punish, Tariffs, Threat, Trump, Upend, World leaders
Financial Times (October 22)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that “greater global protectionism will endanger the world’s growth outlook… as a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s US election raises the prospect of sharp tariff increases.” The IMF’s World Economic Outlook warns that “if higher tariffs hit a ‘sizeable swath’ of world trade by mid-2025, it would wipe 0.8 per cent from economic output next year and 1.3 per cent in 2026.” If, however, widespread tit-for-tat measures ensue, the results could be considerably more destructive.
Tags: 2025, Economic output, Election, Endanger, Global protectionism, Growth outlook, IMF, Tariffs, Tit-for-tat, Trump, U.S., Victory, Warned, World trade
Rolling Stone (September 4)
“Economic policy has become a centerpiece of both campaigns as Harris and Trump battle to win over anxious voters.” But Trump’s plan to “impose universal tariffs on all imported products” is not a hit with economists or Wall Street. Goldman Sachs has warned “that a victory by former President Donald Trump would likely lead to an economic downturn.” In contrast, the bank forecasts the Harris plan would provide a boost to GDP growth.
Tags: Boost, Campaigns, Centerpiece, Downturn, Economic policy, Economists, GDP growth, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Tariffs, Trump, Voters, Wall Street
Wall Street Journal (August 10)
“China was bruised by its trade war with the U.S. under President Donald Trump, but ultimately bounced back.” If he is re-elected “The economic damage to China would be much steeper than in Trump’s first term because the tariffs would be higher and China’s economy is much more vulnerable.”
Tags: Bruised, China, Economic damage, Economy, Re-elected, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S., Vulnerable
Foreign Policy (August 1)
The U.S. economic pivot to Asia began in 2011, but its tenor “has switched from economic offense to defense.” In the intervening years, “America’s positive economic agenda in Asia—opening markets, lowering barriers to trade, sealing agreements—bore virtually no fruit.” Largely driven by China, the U.S. instead raised tariffs, imposed sanctions, and “moved to de-risk and ‘friendshore’” supply chains.
Tags: 2011, Agenda, Agreements, Asia, China, De-risk, Defense, Economic offense, Economic pivot, Friendshore, Lowering barriers, Opening markets, Positive, Sanctions, Tariffs, Trade, U.S.
