Reuters (July 22)
“China’s hardened rhetoric against price wars among producers is raising expectations Beijing may be about to kick off industrial capacity cuts in a long-awaited, but challenging, campaign against deflation that carries risks to economic growth.” Such a campaign would “echo” similar successful “reforms a decade ago to reduce the production of steel, cement, glass and coal, which were crucial to ending a period of 54 consecutive months of falling factory gate prices.” Success may prove elusive this round. “The fight against deflation will be much more complicated and poses risks to employment and growth” while U.S. trade war ”is intensifying price wars, squeezing factory profits.”
Tags: Beijing, Cement, China, Coal, Complicated, Deflation, Economic growth, Employment, Expectations, Glass, Growth, Industrial capacity, Price wars, Producers, Rhetoric, Risks, Steel, Trade war, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 21)
“While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025” based on a larger than expected decline in leading economic indicators. “The U.S. economy is set to slow… with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year through higher prices.”
Tags: 2025, Decline, Economic growth, Forecast, Higher prices, Impact, Leading economic indicators, Recession, Second half, Slow, Tariffs, U.S.
Barron’s (July 19)
“This market risk is a slow-motion wreck waiting to happen.” And yet the U.S. market remains sanguine, largely tuning “out the past week’s tariff drama.” Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, is “cautioning investors against complacency because multiple ‘low-grade shocks’ can take their toll like that of a frog in boiling water.” The impact of tariffs, deportations and “the series of low-grade shocks the market is struggling to digest” will eventually appear and “investors may be underestimating their impact on inflation.”
Tags: Beamish, Boiling water, Chief economist, Complacency, Deportations, Frog, Inflation, Investors, Low-grade shocks, Market risk, Slow-motion wreck, Tariffs, TS Lombard, U.S.
Washington Post (July 18)
“President Donald Trump’s disruptive trade and security policies are producing some big aftershocks.” Amid the fallout and complaints, there’s a common theme: “Rivals such as China seem to be faring better in dealing with Trump’s challenge to the global order than are traditional U.S. allies including Japan and European nations. Except for Britain, countries are often finding that the reward for being a loyal partner is a punch in the nose.”
Tags: Aftershocks, Britain, China, Complaints, Disruptive, European nations, Global order, Japan, Loyal partner, Punch, Reward, Rivals, Security, Trade, Trump, U.S. allies
Investment Week (July 17)
“BlackRock teams are ‘very concerned’ with capturing the tone of US President Donald Trump’s policy stance, to the extent that the asset management giant has spent time tracking the president’s use of capital letters in his social media.” For a while, they found the ratio of upper to lower case letters was a good indicator of the President’s tone, but their approach has been stymied because he now “writes everything in capitals.”
Tags: Asset management, BlackRock, Capital letters, Concerned, Indicator, Policy stance, President, Social media, Stymied, Tone, Tracking, Trump, U.S.
Reuters (July 15)
“Toyota and Hyundai Motor may have a beef with U.S. protectionism, but they have one thing in common with President Donald Trump: when it comes to global car markets, it’s America first for Asia’s legacy automakers.” With the outlook “upended” by Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. still “remains by far the most important market for Japan’s Toyota, South Korea’s Hyundai and Asian rivals including Honda and Nissan. North America accounts for at least 40% of the revenue at both Toyota and Hyundai.”
Tags: Car markets, Honda, Hyundai, Japan, Legacy automakers, Nissan, Outlook, Protectionism, South Korea, Tariffs, Toyota, Trump, U.S., Upended
CNN (July 14)
“The Port of Los Angeles rebounded in June for a record-breaking month as importers raced to get cargo into the port before the ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause ended July 9…. President Donald Trump has since pushed that deadline to August 1.” The port, which “gets more goods from China than any other country,” benefitted from a “whipsaw” effect in June and with the tariff postponement is also expecting a flurry of activity in July. However, the National Retail Federation’s port tracker then expects a “fall by double digits through the end of the year.”
Tags: August, Cargo, China, Importers, June, Los Angeles, National Retail Federation, Port, Rebounded, Reciprocal tariff, Record breaking, Trump, Whipsaw
Market Watch (July 14)
In contrast with previous guidance, Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. home prices to grow only 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% the following year, “a huge drop from the growth the market saw during the pandemic.” Goldman cited “three big reasons for its pessimism regarding home prices: slowing prices, rising housing supply and persistently high mortgage rates.”
Tags: 0.5%, 2025, Drop, Goldman Sachs, Growth, Guidance, Home prices, Housing supply, Market, Pandemic, Pessimism, Slowing, U.S.
Wall Street Journal (July 12)
“Would Tariff Man please take a summer vacation for the good of the nation? Stocks tumbled on Friday after President Trump announced he will raise tariffs on Canada to 35%, starting Aug. 1.” Following this, Trump “floated increasing his current 10% across-the-board tariffs on many countries to 15% or 20%.” Tarriff Man “seems to think that his unpredictability is a negotiating advantage. But keeping trading partners guessing—along with investors and U.S. companies with global supply chains—isn’t a recipe for economic strength.”
Tags: 35%, Advantage, Canada, Companies, Economic strength, Investors, Negotiating, Stocks, Summer vacation, Supply chains, Tariff Man, Trading partners, Trump, Tumbled, U.S., Unpredictability
Investment Week (July 11)
The UK was the “fastest growing G7 economy in Q1 2025, but this memory now seems distant. “Industry professionals have reacted with disappointment to the latest monthly UK GDP figures for May, which showed the economy contracted by 0.1%,” following on top of April’s 0.3% decline. Production output tumbled, “falling by 0.9% after an unchanged fall of 0.6% in April, while the construction sector dipped by 0.6% in May from a 0.8% growth the month before.”
Tags: April, Construction, Contracted, Decline, Disappointment, Fastest-growing, G7 economy, GDP, May, Output, Production, Q1 2025, Tumbled, UK
