Investments & Pensions Europe (August Issue)
“Credit investors would be wise to reflect upon the growing debt burden weighing on the global economy.” Debt has surged since the pandemic and it was already at high levels. “Global debt rose by $10trn (€8.9trn) in 2019 to $255trn. At the end of last year, global debt stood at 322% of global GDP, or 40% higher than before the 2008 financial crisis.”
Tags: 2008, 2019, Burden, Credit, Debt, Financial Crisis, GDP, Global economy, Investors, Pandemic, Reflect, Surged
Bloomberg (March 25)
“It’s the worst epidemic of our times, a health emergency that has now left more than 420,000 infected, 18,800 dead and paralyzed the global economy. The scale has been clear for weeks.”Yet the same “baffling” decisions are “being repeated, over and over again. From Italy to the U.S. and Britain, each government first believes its country to be less exposed than it is, overestimates its ability to control the situation, ignores the real-time experience of others and ultimately scrambles to take measures.”
Tags: Baffling, Dead, Decisions, Emergency, Epidemic, Global economy, Health, Infected, Italy, Paralyzed, Repeated, U.S.
Financial Times (October 12)
“Two years ago growth was accelerating in 75 per cent of the world, the IMF now expects it to decelerate in nearly 90 per cent of the global economy in 2019.”
Tags: Accelerating, Decelerate, Global economy, Growth, IMF, World
Investment Week (September 18)
“The global economy is in a tricky spot…. Money markets are pricing in two possible scenarios, with two very different outcomes. First, a high probability of limited Fed easing…. This would not be enough to kick‑start global growth. Second, a low probability of significant Fed easing, resulting in rates being cut close to zero. This—combined with some limited fiscal stimulus from Europe and China—would be enough to refresh global growth.”
Tags: EU, Fed easing, Fiscal stimulus, Global economy, Growth, Money markets, Outcomes, Pricing, Rate cut, Scenarios
Washington Post (August 17)
“American consumers are increasingly propping up the global economy,” but it’s unclear that they can keep playing this role or even continue propping up the U.S. economy. “A number of signs point to a possible downturn in the United States, economists are growing more skeptical that consumers will continue to open up their wallets as freely. A failure to do so could hasten the arrival of the first U.S. recession in a decade.
Tags: Consumers, Downturn, Economists, Failure, Global economy, Skeptical, U.S., Wallets
The Economist (August 10)
“Since the trade war began in 2018 the damage done to the global economy has been surprisingly slight.” No longer. “This week the picture darkened as the confrontation between America and China escalated, with more tariffs threatened and a bitter row erupting over China’s exchange rate.” Compromise is essential. “But for that to happen President Donald Trump and his advisers must rethink their strategy…. America cannot have a cheap currency, a trade conflict and a thriving economy.”
Tags: China, Compromise, Confrontation, Damage, Exchange rate, Global economy, Tariffs, Trade war, Trump, U.S.
Washington Post (August 14)
“Even in a world where the United States’ military and diplomatic power seems to be in retreat, there is an element of the U.S.-led order that’s as strong as ever — our dominance of the global economy.” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey “may think he can bluff his way through the Brunson crisis, but Turkish banks, construction companies and bondholders know better. In the still-global economy, going it alone really isn’t an option… This summer, as ever, we sink or swim together.”
Tags: Banks, Bondholders, Brunson, Construction, Crisis, Diplomatic, Dominance, Erdogan, Global economy, Military, Power, Retreat, Turkey, U.S.
The Guardian (August 9)
“The era of low interest rates will last for at least another 20 years, despite gently rising official borrowing costs in the coming years, one of the Bank of England’s leading policymakers has forecast.” Outgoing monetary policy committee (MPC) member Ian McCafferty said that “structural changes in the global economy meant UK borrowers and savers should get used to interest rates being “significantly” below the 5% average in the 10 years leading up to the financial crisis.”
Tags: BOE, Borrowing, Costs, Era, Financial Crisis, Global economy, Interest rates, Low, MPC, Structural changes, UK
Reuters (July 5)
“Investors watching the trade tit-for-tat between the United States and China may well have reason to fear the havoc a full blown conflict between the world’s two biggest economies could wreak on the global economy.” Furthermore, the collateral damage could be worse than that done to the principals. Due to global supply chains, countries like Taiwan, Hungary, the Czech Republic, South Korea, and Singapore could be equally if not more vulnerable” to fall out from the spat between the U.S. and China.
Tags: China, Collateral damage, Conflict, Czech Republic, Global economy, Hungary, Investors, Singapore, South Korea, Supply chains, Taiwan, Tit-for-tat, Trade, U.S., Vulnerable
The Economist (September 23)
“Tensions over China’s industrial might now threaten the architecture of the global economy. America’s trade representative this week called China an ‘unprecedented’ threat that cannot be tamed by existing trade rules. The European Union, worried by a spate of Chinese acquisitions, is drafting stricter rules on foreign investment. And, all the while, China’s strategy for modernising its economy is adding further strain.”
Tags: Acquisitions, China, EU, Foreign investment, Global economy, Strain, Tension, Threat, Trade rules, U.S.
